IT is difficult to know how good Luxembourg is, or could be, and he is the correct favourite for the Vertem Futurity Trophy at Doncaster this afternoon.

Aidan O’Brien’s horse did well to win his maiden at Killarney on his racecourse debut in July, when he wasn’t that quickly away and, consequently, had to come wide into the home straight. He showed a really willing attitude, he kept on well under just a hands-and-heels ride from Michael Hussey to get home by over two lengths from Tuwaiq, with the pair of them nicely clear.

Sparkling

Unsurprisingly, the Camelot colt stepped forward markedly from that run next time, when he was seriously impressive in winning the Group 2 Beresford Stakes at the Curragh last month. He showed a sparkling turn of foot, which took him from fifth of five to first of five very quickly, before clearing away to put almost five lengths between himself and his rivals by the time he got to the winning line.

There is precedent there too, because Aidan O’Brien has won the Beresford Stakes a record 21 times, and three of those winners – Saratoga Springs (1997), St Nicholas Abbey (2009) and Saxon Warrior (2017) – followed up in the Vertem Futurity Trophy, a race that the trainer has won nine times.

You can understand why Luxembourg is already favourite for next year’s Derby, a race that has been won by the Vertem Futurity winner four times since the turn of the millennium. But his potential for further progression and his trainer’s record in the race is all factored into his odds. He is short and, from a form perspective, he probably shouldn’t be as far in front of Bayside Boy and Royal Patronage in the market as he is.

Winner of a novice stakes at Epsom in July by five lengths, Royal Patronage was allowed go off at 25/1 for the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York in August, which he duly won on merit, and he proved that there was no fluke about that when he won the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes at Newmarket last time.

He was obviously helped at Newmarket by the fact that Coroebus idled in front close home, but Coroebus then went and won the Group 3 Autumn Stakes back at Newmarket last time doing handsprings, and the third horse home in the Royal Lodge, Unconquerable, went down by just a head to Goldspur in the Group 3 Zetland Stakes, also back at Newmarket.

But Bayside Boy is a bigger price than Royal Patronage, and he has high-class course form as well as a progressive profile. Roger Varian’s horse stayed on well to get the better of the impressive Solario Stakes winner Reach For The Moon in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes over seven furlongs of today’s course at the St Leger meeting, and he followed up by running a big race in the Dewhurst Stakes last time to finish third behind Native Trail.

It appeared as if he was caught a little for a turn of foot on the run into the Dip in the Dewhurst, before he stayed on well to finish third, just two and a half lengths behind the impressive winner, who is clear favourite for next year’s Guineas.

By French Derby winner New Bay, and a half-brother to Forest Ranger, who won the Group 2 Huxley Stakes over 10 and a half furlongs twice, there is every chance that Bayside Boy will be better over today’s trip of a mile than he was over seven furlongs at Newmarket.

He is proven on easy ground and he is proven at Doncaster, and he is proven on easy ground at Doncaster. He has raced just four times, he has a good mix of experience and potential for further progression, and he could run a big race today.

Belargus value

It may pay to take on Sky Pirate in the 888Sport Handicap Chase at Cheltenham. Jonjo O’Neill’s horse was a revelation last season, winning three of his six races, improving by 27lb in the eyes of the official handicapper, and rounding off the season by winning the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival in March.

However, a 7lb hike for that win, when he got home by a short head from Entoucas, probably wasn’t lenient, and he hasn’t won on his seasonal return since he won on his debut under rules at Worcester in October 2017.

Belargus could be the value against him. A dual winner on the flat over middle distances for Pascal Bary in France, Nick Gifford’s horse progressed nicely last season, his second season as a chaser. He won a handicap chase over two miles at Sandown in February by nine lengths off a mark of 121, and he rounded off his season by winning a two-and-a-half-mile handicap chase back at Sandown off a mark of 130.

He has to cope with an 8lb higher mark today, and he is away from Sandown, where he put up the best performances of his career but, still only six, he could be progressive enough to take that type of hike in his stride.

He is a strong traveller, who should be fine back down at two miles, a trip over which he is proven, and we know that he goes well on good ground. Niall Houlihan is a good rider who gets on well with J.P. McManus’ horse – his record on him reads 231F1 – and he claims a really useful 5lb.

Recommended

Bayside Boy, 1 point win, 3.15 Doncaster, 5/1 (generally)

Belargus, 1 point win, 3.30 Cheltenham, 6/1 (generally)