Donn McClean

BRITISH PREVIEW

SO we get a chance to have another go at a big two and a half-mile (or thereabouts) handicap chase at Cheltenham. Caspian Caviar Gold Cup day today, the fourth renewal of the feature race under the Caspian Caviar banner, in a race that has had as many different names as Voldemort has had.

We had a real live preview of today’s race in November, the first five home in the BetVictor Gold Cup all line up today, as well as the eighth and the ninth. There are differences, of course. There is the move to the New Course from the Old Course for starters and the consequential addition of 88 yards. And there is the other not insignificant addition of Clan Des Obeaux.

FORM

Nicky Henderson may have wished two weeks ago that Clan Des Obeaux had finished a half a length in front of Whisper in that match for the two and a half-mile graduation chase at Kempton last month instead of a half a length behind him. (Implication: no 4lb penalty for Whisper for the Hennessy.) Even so, it’s strong form, Whisper enhanced the form at Newbury, and Clan Des Obeaux himself enhanced it when he was impressive in winning another graduation chase at Haydock three weeks ago.

Paul Nicholls’ horse is only five and he has plenty of scope for progression. However, he was raised 7lb for that graduation chase win at Haydock, which means that he has 11st 12lb to carry today, in a race in which high weights do not have a great record. No winner has carried more than 11st 8lb since Addington Boy carried 11st 10lb to victory in 1996. And he is favourite. He is short enough at 7/2 or 4/1.

Le Prezien is a more attractive betting proposition at almost twice the favourite’s price. J.P. McManus’ horse ran a cracker in the BetVictor Gold Cup to finish third behind Splash Of Ginge and Starchitext on unsuitably soft ground.

The ground is going to be soft again today, but it may be better than it was on the Old Course in November, in the rain and on ground on which they had raced in October. Also, he did well to come from the rear to get as close as he did in November in a race in which, as things panned out, it was probably an advantage to race handily. Le Prezien was the only one of the first four home who came from the rear.

The handicapper gave him another 2lb for that, he is creeping up the handicap without winning, which is not ideal. However, he is only six, he continues to progress, and he has the potential to progress again. He still has room for improvement in his jumping, and he still has the potential to go beyond the handicap rating of 152 off which he races today. He goes well at Cheltenham and he has Barry Geraghty for company again today. He could go close.

MELON’S CHANCES

Melon brings an intriguing dimension to the International Hurdle. One of last season’s leading novices and second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, Willie Mullins’ horse started off this season nicely with an impressive victory in the Grade 2 WKD Hurdle at Down Royal’s big meeting in early November.

He has the potential to go right to the top over hurdles and the fact that Willie Mullins is sending him to Cheltenham for this contest is significant. However, all of that is more than factored into his odds today. He is rated 9lb inferior to The New One, and he is rated 8lb inferior to My Tent Or Yours, and he has to concede 6lb to Nicky Henderson’s horse.

Both those horses – first and second in last year’s renewal of this race – are obvious dangers, but the value of the race could be the 10/1 that is available about Ch’Tibello.

Dan Skelton’s horse hasn’t run yet this season, but he was a progressive hurdler last season. Winner of the Scottish Champion Hurdle as a novice in April 2016, and winner a two-mile handicap hurdle at Haydock in November last year, he stepped up on that to finish third behind Yanworth and The New One in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton last December. And he stepped forward again from that to get to within a length of Yanworth in the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton in February when he had Sceau Royal behind him in third.

Ruled out of the Champion Hurdle in March on the morning of the race, he is proven in this grade. He gets 6lb from The New One and Melon and that gives him a real chance.

He has never run at Cheltenham, all his form is on flat tracks, but that unknown is factored into his odds and we know that he can operate on soft ground. Dan Skelton’s horses continue to be in top form, three of his last six runners have won, and Ch’Tibello looks over-priced at 9/1 or 10/1.

RECOMMENDED

LE PREZIEN 1 point win, 6/1 (generally)

CH’TIBELLO 1 point win, 10/1 (generally)