LE Brivido is high in the market for the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury today, but he is a 9/2 shot now, he has been deposed as favourite by Laurens, and 9/2 is fair.

The son of Siyouni was an exciting young colt when he was with André Fabre. He was only beaten a short head in the French 2000 Guineas as a three-year-old in 2017 by Brametot, who went on to win the Prix du Jockey Club next time.

Le Brivido dropped down in class and down in trip next time to contest the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, and he did well to win it. Racing in the group that raced down the centre of the track in a race in which the stands-side group probably had a significant advantage, he had to do a lot of running on his own out in the centre, and he just got up to beat Spirit Of Valor by a neck.

Ony six of the 20 runners raced down the near side that day, and four of them filled four of the first five places in the race overall. The next best of the group of 14 who raced down the centre after Le Brivido was Daban, who finished sixth overall, five lengths behind Le Brivido.

LONG ABSENCE

We didn’t see Le Brivido again after that in 2017. We didn’t see him again until he re-appeared in the Abernant Stakes in April last year when, sent off a short-priced favourite, he could finish only sixth behind Brando. And we didn’t see him again after that until he made his debut this season, his first run for Aidan O’Brien, in the Group 3 Gladness Stakes over seven furlongs at Naas last month.

Settled nicely at the back of the nine-runner field that day by Ryan Moore, he made good ground in the home straight, and he kept on well to take third place behind Imaging and No Needs Never. It was a fine performance on his first run for 12 months, his first run for his new trainer and he left the impression that he would have no problem stepping up to a mile again.

It is probable that this race has been high on his agenda since he joined Aidan O’Brien.

He is five years old, but he is very lightly raced for his age. He is obviously a talented individual from whom we may not yet have seen the best, and he should be primed for today.

TAKING ON THE BOYS

Laurens is obviously a big danger. Karl Burke’s filly won four Group 1 races last season as a three-year-old, the Prix Saint-Alary, the Prix de Diane, the Matron Stakes and the Sun Chariot Stakes, and she can go well fresh. She finished second in the 1000 Guineas on her debut last year. However, she has only taken on the boys once in her life, in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes last October, when she could finish only eighth behind Roaring Lion. It could be a cracking contest, it is not just a two-horse race either, but it may be that Le Brivido’s class will see him through.

GOOD POINTER

Some 40 minutes earlier, Good Birthday could run well in the London Gold Cup. This is often really strong race, a competitive 10-furlong handicap for three-year-olds, which can be a good pointer to the future. It has been won in the past by Green Moon and Al Kazeem, and more recently by Defoe and Cannock Chase and Communique.

Good Birthday proved that he could operate at Newbury, albeit over the straight mile, when he won his maiden over a mile there last October, and he probably put up the best performance of his career when he won a 10-furlong handicap at Doncaster on his debut this season.

Andrew Balding’s horse was impressive that day. He settled well, and he came with a strong run down the outside to win well, despite showing signs of greenness.

The handicapper raised him by 8lb for that win to the mark of 90 off which he races today, but that was his seasonal debut and just his fourth run ever, and he appeared to win with plenty in hand, so he has the potential to go a fair way higher.

Andrew Balding continues to have his horses in top form and Silvestre de Sousa, who rode Good Birthday for the first time at Doncaster last month, takes the ride for the second time. There are lots of positives.

RECOMMENDED

GOOD BIRTHDAY, 1 point win, 3.00 Newbury, 9/1 (generally)

LE BRIVIDO, 1 point win, 3.40 Newbury, 9/2 (generally)