IT’S long odds-on that Aidan O’Brien will bag another Group 1 William Hill Futurity Stakes at Doncaster today, his third in five years, his fifth in nine, but it’s difficult to find an angle into the race from a betting perspective.

Benvenuto Cellini was seriously impressive in winning the Group 2 KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes at the Irish Champions’ Festival at Leopardstown last month, and this is a logical next step, same distance and up in grade, from Group 2 to Group 1. Aidan O’Brien completed this double with Auguste Rodin three years ago, and he, of course, went on to win two Derbys the following year, as well as an Irish Champion Stakes and a Breeders’ Cup Turf.

But there isn’t much between Benvenuto Cellini and Hawk Mountain, according to the market. Their respective prices were ever convergent as the week went on. Their respective profiles are uncannily similar too. Like his stable companion, Hawk Mountain is two for three, defeat on his racecourse debut closely followed by a maiden win and then an impressive win in a Group 2 contest, the Beresford Stakes in Hawk Mountain’s case.

Their respective pedigrees are as good as you would expect them to be too. Hawk Mountain is by Wootton Bassett, out of Hydrangea, the Matron Stakes winner, the Fillies’ and Mares’ Stakes winner. Benvenuto Cellini is by Frankel out of Newspaperofrecord, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies’ Turf winner.

Not easy to split

Action is not out of it either, Lambourn’s brother, who put up a really encouraging performance on his racecourse debut in that maiden that is usually a strong pointer to the future on Irish Oaks day. Then he won his maiden at Galway. He came up short last time in the Royal Lodge at Newmarket, but only a little bit short. There could still be much more to come from him.

If there is an over-priced horse in the race, mind you, it may be Oxagon, an impressive winner of a novice stakes at Sandown in July who ran a big race on his only run at Doncaster in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes, to finish second to Puerto Rico, who went on and won the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at Longchamp next time on Arc de Triomphe day. He was well beaten in the Dewhurst last time but, back at Doncaster, back on easier ground, he could do better today.

The 10-furlong handicap later on the day is hugely competitive, but Fantasy Believer could be over-priced for it. Ed Walker’s horse is not unexposed, an eight-year-old who has run 57 times, and this may even be his final race, but his best turf form is on soft ground, and we know that he goes well at Doncaster.

The Make Believe gelding put up one of the best performances of his life last month when he won a handicap over today’s course and distance. It looked like he might be an unlucky loser that day as, short of room on the run to the furlong marker, and with no gap developing anywhere in the wall of three horses that raced ahead of him, Oisin Murphy had to check back and move towards the outside. When he did, Fantasy Believer picked up impressively and he ran out a cosy winner in the end from Sovereign Sea, with Sportingsilvermine back in third.

You have to forgive him his latest run, but that was at Epsom, his first run at Epsom, and he never looked happy. He should be happier back at Doncaster today, and back on softer ground. He is up to a mark of 93 now, but that is just 4lb higher than he was when he won at Doncaster last month. That is more than workable. He has Oisin Murphy for company again, and he has a nice draw in stall four.

Team Ireland

At Cheltenham, Henry de Bromhead could hold the key to the William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase, as he has in each of the last two years. Last year, he had the runner-up as well as the winner, The Short Go staying on well to close on his stable companion Senior Chief, with the pair of them finishing clear of their rivals. The Short Go is just 6lb higher today than he was last year, and he has a real chance, with the excellent Darragh O’Keeffe bidding for a hat-trick in the race as well, but he is popular and he is short.

Three Card Brag is a more attractive betting proposition at over twice his odds. Gordon Elliott’s horse ran a big race in the Kerry National last time to finish second to Spanish Harlem, who could be a big player in some of the big staying handicap chases this season. Back in third that day was French Dynamite, who went to Cork last weekend and won the Munster National off the same mark. Eric McNamara’s horse is now 8lb higher than he was then.

Three Card Brag gets to race off a British handicap rating that is just 4lb higher than the Irish mark off which he ran at Listowel, and that is fair. Gordon Elliott, fresh from his remarkable five-timer in Far Hills last Saturday, obviously has his horses in top form, and Three Card Brag, fifth past the post in the 2023 Albert Bartlett Hurdle on his only run to date at Cheltenham, who will have Jack Kennedy for company, should appreciate the greater test of stamina that he will get today.

Recommended:

Fantasy Believer 4.25 Doncaster 1pt win @ 10/1 (generally)

Three Card Brag 2.20 Cheltenham 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (generally)