WILL Pinatubo get a mile and a half?

You can make the case for. Four of his six wins have been over seven furlongs, two of them at the highest level, and you would never say, based on his racing style, that he wouldn’t get further than that. He will surely get a mile all right.

His dam is the Dalakhani mare Lava Flow, who was trained by Andre Fabre to win a listed race at Longchamp over a mile and three furlongs. Also positive. And she has already produced Antisana, whose sole win was gained over a mile and a half.

There is plenty of stamina in the Godolphin colt’s pedigree. Lava Flow is a half-sister to Alborz, who won over a mile and a quarter on the flat and who won twice over two miles over hurdles on soft ground, and to Hunterview, who won over a mile and a half on the flat and who won three times over two miles over hurdles. Also, his grandam is Mount Elbrus, who won twice over 10 furlongs, and she is a half-sister to Joy Box, who won a bumper over two miles.

Pinatubo is by Shamardal who, outstanding sire though he is, is not renowned for stamina. He won the Dewhurst as a juvenile, and he won the French 2000 Guineas as a three-year-old before stepping up in trip to win the Prix du Jockey Club, the first 10-and-a-half-furlong Prix du Jockey Club. His last run was in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot at York, back down to a mile, which he duly won.

The Kildangan Stud stallion’s progeny’s strike rate over distances from five furlongs to 11 furlongs is over 15%. At 12 furlongs and further it’s less than 11%.

But they can go 12 furlongs at the highest level. Mukhadram finished a good third behind Taghrooda and Telescope in the 2014 King George. Dariyan finished third behind Highland Reel and Flintshire in the Hong Kong Vase in 2015. But even those two had better form over 10 furlongs.

Mukhadram won the Eclipse over 10 furlongs and Dariyan won the Prix Ganay over 10 and a half. Also, Hazapour won the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial but came up short in the Derby last year before dropping back to a mile this season and winning the Group 3 Amethyst Stakes.

There is hope for a mile and a half though. Balios won a King Edward VII Stakes, Hidden Gold won five times over a mile and a half or further, Dubai Prince won four times over hurdles and twice over fences. Tarnawa could today add a Fillies and Mares Stakes to her Give Thanks Stakes.

Pinatubo is favourite for next year’s Guineas of course, but he is also favourite for next year’s Derby. It will be really interesting to see how far he will go, and how far he will be asked to go.