THE ground is going to be key at Cheltenham today. The jockeys were saying that it was slow yesterday, that it wouldn’t take a lot of rain to make it ‘proper’ slow, and there is rain forecast this morning. Consequently, the percentage call is to assume soft ground this afternoon.

That is a positive for Simply The Betts in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

Harry Whittington’s horse was a good hurdler two seasons ago, but he grew into an even better chaser last season, winning four of his five races over fences, all four on soft or heavy ground.

The performance that he put up in winning the Timeform Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham in January off a mark of 140 pushed him through the 145 barrier to a mark of 149, which meant that he couldn’t run in the race that would have been his ideal target at the Cheltenham Festival, the recently extincted Northern Trust Company Novices’ Handicap Chase.

It didn’t matter though. He just re-routed to the Brown Advisory Plate against more experienced chasers and, off his new mark of 149, won that anyway.

Lofty mark

The handicapper raised him by another 8lb for that win to a mark of 157, and that is undoubtedly a lofty mark, but he was value for more than the bare winning margin in March. He travelled really well through his race, he travelled like the most likely winner from a fair way out. He got in tight to the final fence, and he landed a little flat-footed, so he did well to recover his equilibrium and get going again and stay on as strongly up the hill as he did to beat a high-class mare in Happy Diva, winner of this race last year.

Kerry Lee’s mare meets Simply The Betts on 6lb better terms for a one-length beating, and you can see her running a big race again, but Simply The Betts has the scope to go beyond today’s mark. He is only seven and he has raced just five times over fences.

The form of his Timeform Chase win in January is working out really well too through the runner-up Imperial Aura, who won the Northern Trust Chase at the Cheltenham Festival off a 7lb higher mark, and won the Colin Parker Chase at Carlisle on his debut this season. He is now rated 21lb higher than he was when Simply The Betts beat him.

We know that Harry Whittington’s horse goes well at Cheltenham, he is two for two there over fences – admittedly on the New Course – with both races run on soft ground.

It is not easy to carry big weights to victory in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, but Taquin Du Seuil won the race under 11st 11lb in 2016, so it is within the realms. Also, 10 of the 17 runners today will carry 11st or more.

Positive for Golan

Soft ground would also be a positive for Golan Fortune in the three-mile handicap hurdle. Phil Middleton’s horse won this race last year off a mark of 135, and he gets to race today off just a 2lb higher mark.

He was well beaten on his debut this season at Cheltenham’s October meeting, but he was well beaten in the same race last year too on his seasonal return before, cheek pieces re-fitted, he bounced back and won this race 12 months ago.

The difference between last year and this year is that he has had another run in the interim, he finished fourth in a Pertemps qualifier at Aintree last Saturday.

He did well to get as close as he did that day too. He came under pressure early, but he kept on well from the top of the home straight towards the far side. He was in traffic over there and, when Sam Lee took him towards the near side on the run-in, he stayed on well into fourth, just over three lengths behind the winner Unowhatimeanharry.

The stiffer track today should suit him well, as should the prospect of softer ground, and the emphasis that that will place on stamina. And it is interesting that a visor replaces his customary cheek pieces.

Kettle ready to boil

It could be worthwhile backing Put The Kettle On too for tomorrow’s Shloer Chase. Henry de Bromhead’s mare probably didn’t get the recognition that she was due for winning the Arkle in March. Her jumping that day was superb and, while Fakir D’Oudairies made a bad mistake at the second last fence, she was going away again at the end when he got close to her. She probably had more in hand than the bare winning margin, and she had Rouge Vif well behind her in third.

She is officially rated 14lb inferior to Defi Du Seuil, but he has to carry a 6lb penalty whereas she only has to carry a 3lb penalty, and she gets the mares’ allowance. She gets 10lb so, actually, on the figures, she only has to find 4lb with Philip Hobbs’ horse.

He is obviously a massive danger, but he has to bounce back from a disappointing run in the Champion Chase. Rouge Vif shaped like a potential Champion Chase horse in a handicap at the October meeting, but that was on good ground, he jumps so well off good ground. He probably won’t want the ground to get too soft tomorrow, and there is a chance that it will be even softer tomorrow than it will be today. The ground can get quite testing on the Sunday of this meeting if it rains, on the final day of a three-day meeting.

Put The Kettle On is only six, she is a progressive mare who appears to be ideally suited to a stiff test at two miles, and she goes well on soft ground. She won the Arkle Trial at this meeting last year, she is two for two at Cheltenham, on the Old Course, over tomorrow’s course and distance, and she could enhance that record further.

Recommended

Simply The Betts, 1 point each-way, 2.15 Cheltenham, Saturday, 5/1 (generally)

Golan Fortune, 1 point win, 2.50 Cheltenham, Saturday, 7/1 (generally)

Put The Kettle On, 1 point win, 2.25 Cheltenham, Sunday, 11/4 (generally)