YOU have to start your annual analysis of the William Hill Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup with Paul Nicholls. That’s the rule.

Nicholls has won the race seven times in the last 10 years, and seven and a half times in the last 12. Cornish Sett halved it with Horus in 2006. It’s some record in a highly competitive handicap chase.

You can make a case for Nicholls’ three runners this afternoon too and, of the trio, Dolos could be the pick. The Kapgarde gelding looked good at Sandown four weeks ago when he beat Gino Trail and Not Another Muddle, who went back to Sandown two weeks ago and won well off a 1lb higher mark.

However, Dolos is 5lb higher in the handicap now, and he is stepping up to two and a half miles, and the ground will be a fair bit better today at Newbury than it was at Sandown that day.

COMPELLING

He is a player, but the case for Happy Diva is more compelling. Kerry Lee’s mare has been in tremendous form all season. Second to Mister Whitaker in the Colin Parker Memorial Chase at Carlisle in November, she was travelling well when she was one of the horses brought down at the fourth last fence in the BetVictor Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November.

She did well to get to within two lengths of Aso at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day and, while she had no chance with Cyrname in the two-and-a-half-mile handicap chase at Ascot in January – form that has obviously been enhanced since, with Cyrname now the highest-rated chaser in training – she did well to finish third, given that she raced towards the head of the main group.

Then last time at Huntingdon, she proved her wellbeing by beating Jessica Harrington’s classy mare Magic Of Light in a listed mares’ chase.

The handicapper left her on her mark of 142 after that, which was more than fair. Magic Of Light is rated 151, and she was receiving just 4lb from her, and the pair of them finished nicely clear of Casablanca Mix, who is rated 141. You would have understood it if the handicapper had raised her by a few pounds.

She is in the form of her life, she is a well handicapped mare, she goes well on goodish ground and two and a half miles is her trip.

Also, the last time she ran at Newbury, in a listed mares’ chase in December last season, she finished second to Ms Parfois, who went on to run Rathvinden to a half a length in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last March.

THEATRE’S RACE

Speaking of which, course form that is, we know that Theatre Guide goes well at the track, and he could run a big race in the William Hill Supporting Greatwood Veterans’ Handicap Chase.

Placed in two Hennessy Gold Cups over today’s course and distance, Colin Tizzard’s horse did well to finish second to Houblon Des Obeaux in the final of the 2018 veterans’ series at Sandown in early January. He was well beaten by the winner that day, but he meets him on 7lb better terms. More importantly, the switch to Newbury is a positive, as is the move to better ground.

The King’s Theatre gelding gets to race off his Sandown handicap rating of 137, and that is more than fair. It is 26lb lower than his peak and, while most of his rivals are also racing off handicap ratings that are lower than their respective peak ratings, that Sandown run suggests that it is a mark off which he could go well in a contest like this one, with the ground more in his favour.

Abolitionist is a fascinating contender, but you have to think that this is a stepping stone to the Grand National. Joe Farrell is also interesting, but similar comments could apply to him, he hasn’t run since he won the Scottish National last April, and, while he can go well fresh, and he can go well at Newbury, Theatre Guide is marginally preferred.

RECOMMENDED

THEATRE GUIDE, 2.05 Newbury, 1 point win, 9/1 (generally)

HAPPY DIVA, 2.40 Newbury, 1 point each-way, 11/2 (generally)