A FEATURE of the market for this afternoon’s Jenningsbet Northumberland Plate during the week was the momentum that developed behind Circus Of Rome.

Trainer Richard Hughes said on Thursday that his horse fits the profile for the race, and that is true. He ticks a lot of boxes. A progressive four-year-old, who has been trained for the race, he is one for one at Newcastle and he shapes as if he will stay the two-mile trip. Also, his trainer won the race with Calling The Wind three years ago.

The Circus Maximus gelding is up to a mark of 97 now, 11lb higher than the mark off which he won the last time he was at Newcastle. His two runs this season have fallen some way short of his best, but they were both over distances that were some way short of his best and, well, see above regarding trained for the race.

His price is a negative though, as is his low draw. The stats seem to carry more weight in the Northumberland Plate market these days than intuitive wisdom does. The stats say that a low draw is a disadvantage, even though intuition dictates that the high-drawn horses have to cover more ground.

It’s similar to races run over a mile and a half at Ascot in that regard, although Opportunity’s win in the Duke of Edinburgh Stakes at Royal Ascot last week from stall one may check the momentum on the stats orientation on that one a little bit.

Antiquarium did win the first Northumberland Plate run on Newcastle’s Tapeta in 2016 from stall three, but he was chased home by horses drawn, respectively, 12, 20, 18 and 17. Since then, no horse drawn lower than seven has won it. More than that, until last year, no horse drawn lower than six had managed to finish in the first four in the race.

Statistics

The low numbers came to the fore last year, the first five home were all drawn in single figures. So, it’s not impossible to win or go close from a low draw. It’s all about degrees.

The RaceiQ draw stats on the Northumberland Plate are interesting in that regard. They say that stalls one to four are negative, -1.85 lengths, -1.31 lengths, -0.75 lengths and -0.25 lengths respectively, the severity of the negativity decreasing as you go up through the stalls. Stall five is positive, +0.14. Stall six is +0.37.

Actually, all stalls from five to 20 are positive, with the highest positive being stall seven, +0.47, not stall 20. So, according to RaceiQ, it’s not a case of the higher the stall the better. It’s just a case that you don’t want to be drawn very low.

According to the RaceiQ stats, then, Circus Of Rome from stall two has to give a start of 1.78 lengths to Ride The Thunder from stall seven. Roger Varian’s horse has a good profile for the race too, a four-year-old who has raced just eight times in his life.

He actually finished two and a half lengths in front of Circus Of Rome in a handicap at Haydock in September, when they finished second and fourth respectively behind Valiancy. He raced off a mark of 84 that day, he is up to a mark of 90 now, and that is a workable mark. That leaves him 5lb worse off with Circus Of Rome for beating him by two and a half lengths.

He warmed up for this nicely too on his seasonal return at Hamilton last time, his first run since being gelded, when he finished a close-up third behind the same Valiancy, the first three clear. That should bring him forward nicely for today.

Better value

He still has to prove that he can stay two miles, though - his dam won over a mile and a half, but she is a half-sister to Phoenix Stakes winner Alfred Nobel - and he has never raced on an artificial surface and, at a bigger price, Team Player may represent better value.

Winner of a 12-furlong handicap at Lingfield last September on his penultimate run for Gemma Tutty, when he did well to come from off the pace in a slowly-run race, the Without Parole gelding has progressed nicely this season so far for Ewan Whillans.

He sprang a 33/1 surprise on his first run for his new connections in a first-time tongue-tie at Newcastle in February, over today’s course and distance, and he made light of a 5lb hike when he won the Queen’s Cup at Musselburgh at Easter.

He travelled into his race easily that day, he hit the front at the two-furlong marker, and he stayed on really well from there, coming clear of his rivals before being eased down close home and winning with way more in hand than the one-and-three-quarter-length winning margin.

Raised by 9lb for that win, he only finished fifth in the Chester Cup last time, but you can mark him up a fair bit on the bare form of the run.

Drawn 12 of 15, he was dropped in early on, and that was a race in which you really had to be prominent.

He did well to keep on as well as he did to take fifth place, beaten a total of two and a half lengths. He was faster than all his rivals through each of the last two furlongs.

Unlike in the Chester Cup, his hold-up style of racing is not usually a negative in a Northumberland Plate. He has pace for a mile and a half, but we know that he stays two miles, and he is one for one over today’s course and distance.

His draw in stall six is fine, and he proved at Chester that he is well capable off this mark of 92. He seems to be an improved horse this season, and the fitting of cheekpieces could elicit further improvement.

In-form mare

Earlier in the day, Heavenly Heather could go well in the Jenningsbet Chipchase Stakes. A three-time winner at Newcastle over five, six and seven furlongs, Tracy Waggott’s mare ran a big race in the King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot last Tuesday.

She had a good high draw that day, and she was probably racing on the fastest part of the track, but that was obviously a Group 1 race, and she still finished off her race strongly to take sixth place, just a length and a half behind the winner, Mission Central.

All her best form is over five furlongs, but you can argue that this six-furlong trip is a better trip for her these days. She got out-paced in the Scottish Sprint Cup at Musselburgh at Easter over five furlongs before keeping on well, and it was a similar story in the King Charles III Stakes last time. In the interim, she finished off her race well to take second place behind Jakajaro in a five-furlong handicap at York’s Dante meeting, doing best of the far-side horses.

In her last run over six furlongs, in a handicap at Newcastle in March, she broke smartly and could never get cover in a race in which she travelled best of all to the furlong marker before fading.

On her previous run over six, also at Newcastle, she was checked in her run at a crucial stage of the race, just as she was making ground towards the leaders, before finishing off her race well.

On her previous run over six furlongs, also at Newcastle, she won nicely. She has a little bit to find on ratings with the top-rated horses, but her fillies’ allowance is a help in that regard and, more importantly, she should have the race run to suit.

There is plenty of pace on, she has a nice high draw, and she could get a good tow into the race from Diligent Harry, who is drawn next door. She could out-run her odds by a fair way.