Saturday's Warwick card was cancelled following a morning inspection

YOU don’t know for sure what the ground is going to be like at Warwick this afternoon, but there is plenty of rain forecast, as well as everything else, so it could come up very testing for the William Hill Half A Mill Classic Chase, and that would suit Mr Vango ideally.

All his best form is on soft ground. It was soft when he won the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock almost a year ago and it was soft when he went down by the width of a cheekpiece to Twig in the Becher Chase at Aintree just over a month ago.

It was officially good to soft when he won the Midlands National at Uttoxeter last March, but the times on the day tell you that the ground was much softer than that. He stuck to his task well that day too, to just get home by a length from Tanganyika, who was on a hat-trick drive, having won his previous two.

The handicapper raised Sara Bradstock’s horse by 9lb for that Midlands National win to a mark of 152, but he proved that he was up to that mark with his run in the Becher Chase, when he was literally beaten by an unkind headbob.

Half a stride before the line he was up, half a stride after the line he was up, and he was well in front at the pull-up. And there was a chance that he was going to get the race anyway in the stewards’ room, he was taken to his right at least slightly on the run-in.

But there’s the Elbow on the run-in on the Grand National course at Aintree which complicates things because, well, where is the racing line anyway?

Unsurmountable?

The handicapper took the opportunity to give him another 3lb for that run, but 155 is not an unsurmountable mark, and L’Homme Presse’s presence means that he has to shoulder ‘just’ 11st 7lb. He would have had 12 stone in any of the last three renewals of this race.

He has just turned 10, but that run at Aintree was just his eighth run over fences, and he has run just 12 times under rules in total, so there could still be more to come from the Ocovango gelding.

Also, he was racing for the first time this season in the Becher Chase. He has improved from his first run to his second run all three seasons since he started racing under rules, so there is every chance that he will be able to improve on his Aintree run today. And his prominent style of racing is well suited to Warwick.

He missed his engagement in the Welsh National at Chepstow over Christmas because of the good to soft ground - so unusual for a Welsh National - but that may not have been a bad thing.

It means that he has had an extra two weeks to recover from what had to have been a hard enough race on his seasonal debut. A break of 35 days is much more comfortable, especially for a staying chaser, than a break of 21 days.

Sara Bradstock hasn’t had a winner since October, but she only had one runner in November and she had just two in December. She has had three winners from 14 runners since July, which represents a strike rate of over 21%.

Jack Tudor’s strike rate is even better. He is riding really well these days, he followed a treble at Aintree on St Stephen’s Day with a winner at Haydock just before New Year and another at Ffos Las on Thursday. He is operating at a strike rate of 26% in the last two weeks.

Myretown is obviously a big danger, he was so impressive in winning the Ultima at Cheltenham in March, and he was travelling well in front when he came down in the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury last time.

He was entered in the Cheltenham Gold Cup this week, and time may prove that trying to concede 13lb to him was a nigh impossible task, but he is 15lb higher than he was for the Ultima, and he is short enough.

L’Homme Presse is obviously a player, and Destroytheevidence was only just beaten in a three-runner novice chase last February on his only run at Warwick to date, but Mr Vango is the bet.

Pertemps Qualifier

Later in the day, Lud’or could go well in the Pertemps Qualifier. Winner of his maiden hurdle at Wetherby last February, Tom Symonds’ horse was impressive in winning a handicap hurdle at Bangor on his debut this season off a mark of 123, and he probably put up a career-best performance last time when he finished third in a good handicap hurdle at Newbury on Coral Gold Cup day off a mark of 136.

He led from early that day, and he was still in front and travelling well on the run to the final flight.

In the end, he gave best to French Ship, and he just ceded second place to Guard Duty close home, but the first three finished well clear of their rivals, and the form has been enhanced since.

Guard Duty stayed on well to take third place in a handicap hurdle at Windsor on New Year’s Day, in a race in which it was very difficult to make ground from the rear.

The fourth horse in the Newbury race, Cian Collins’ horse Torquay Road, ran really well on his chasing debut at Down Royal on St Stephen’s Day.

Lud’or will be stepping up in trip today to three miles and one furlong for the first time, but he stays two and a half miles well, and he is a galloper who could improve for the step up in trip. He is only six and he has raced just nine times in his life, so there could be more to come from him.

Mr Vango, 2.55 Warwick,

4/1 (generally), 1pt win

Lud’or, 3.32 Warwick,

7/2 (generally), 1pt win

Donn recommended last week’s

Veterans’ Chase winner Nocte Volatus at 11/2.