THERE are headline events all over the place today: the return of Our Duke in the JNWine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal, Cue Card -v- Coneygree at Wetherby, and any number of potentially headline-makers at Del Mar.
It is difficult to choose between Coneygree and Cue Card in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby. Both are top class, old friends, multiple Grade 1 winners. Cue Card has to give 6lb to Coneygree, and that might just tilt it in favour of the Bradstocks’ horse.
However, this is not the two-horse race that the build-up and the market suggests it is and Bristol De Mai could represent some value against the two headline horses.
HIGH-CLASS PERFORMER
Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse is a high-class performer. Winner of the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Chase over two and a half miles as a novice, and second in the JLT Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, he put up a career-best performance at Haydock last January when he ran away with the Peter Marsh Chase.
No better than 16/1 after that run for the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March, he disappointed behind Native River in the Denman Chase at Newbury on his next run. He just appeared to run flat that day. Perhaps his big run in the Peter Marsh took more out of him than was apparent at the time.
A summer off should have given him the time to recharge his batteries in advance of the 2017/18 campaign, and this is a race in which his trainer likes to do well, so it would be surprising if he was not primed for today.
He appears to be at his best when he can get into a nice even rhythm, ideally in a prominent position, on a flat track, probably left-handed, although he has run well at Sandown, and ideally with at least some cut in the ground. He will have all of that this afternoon, and any more rain would be a bonus.
He does have to shoulder the 6lb penalty today, and that leaves him with plenty to find on official ratings, but he is only six and he has the potential to improve again this season. If he can get into a prominent position and if he can get settled in a nice even rhythm early on, then he could run a big race.
ASCOT
You can make a case for plenty of contenders in the Sodexo Gold Cup at Ascot. Go Conquer beat As De Mee with more in hand than the bare two-length winning margin on his seasonal return at Fontwell, but a 7lb hike for that win was not overly lenient.
Antony was third in that race and, while a 9lb pull on its own should not be sufficient in theory to allow him bridge the 14-length gap, Gary Moore’s horse won this race last year off just a 4lb lower mark than today’s and it is probable that his trainer has had this race in mind for him again for a while. We know that he goes well over the course and distance and he is a player.
Emerging Talent is also a player, as are Braquer D’Or and Fourth Act, but Dark Flame could beat them all.
Richard Rowe’s horse was a progressive novice chaser last season. After winning nicely at Sandown on his chasing debut, he ran a cracker to finish third in the foggy handicap chase that Poker School won on Long Walk Hurdle day at Ascot last December.
Well-beaten on soft ground on his next two runs, he bounced back when he got back on better ground back at Ascot in early April, running a big race to finish a close second to the 142-rated Present Man.
That run alone gives Dark Flame a big chance today, racing off a mark of 133, for all that the winner idled on the run-in that day at Ascot. He had the 136-rated Brother Tedd just behind him in third.
That was just Dark Flame’s fifth chase, so he has lots of scope for progression over fences. He goes well at Ascot, he won his maiden hurdle there as well as running those two big races over fences there, and, as a consequence, it would not be surprising if his trainer has had this race in mind for him for a while.
He is stepping up to three miles today, but he races like he might appreciate a step up from two and a half miles and, a point-to-point winner, there are staying chasers in his family. It will be interesting to see how he fares, stepped up to three miles for the first time under rules.
RECOMMENDED
BRISTOL DE MAI, 1 point win, 9/1 (generally)
DARK FLAME 1 point each-way, 8/1 (generally)