Donn McClean

TRY to figure out the draw for today’s William Hill Ayr Gold Cup; try to solve a Sudoku puzzle with one number in it.

The perceived wisdom tells you that you want to be drawn high. Certainly, the perceived wisdom of those who were out early in the draw for the draw on Thursday morning erred to the high side.

Then on Thursday afternoon, there was one race run on the sprint track, a five-furlong handicap, and the first four home emerged, respectively, from stalls one, three, seven and two.

The first six-furlong race yesterday seemed to confirm the low bias, with the first five home in the 15-runner race emerging, respectively, from stalls four, three, two, one and five. But the next six-furlong race seemed to scupper that notion, with the first six emerging, respectively, from stalls 11, nine, 20, one, 15 and 24.

The low-drawn horses held sway in the Bronze Cup yesterday but most of the pace was drawn low in the Bronze Cup. By contrast, in the Gold Cup this afternoon, there is lots of pace drawn high; Hillbilly Boy is in 24, Magnus Maximus is in 21, Final Venture is in 20, Glen Moss is in 17.

FASTEST HORSE

So it’s back to trying to determine which horse is going to run fastest today.

It could be Aeolus. Ed Walker’s horse is a high-class sprinter who is probably at his best over six furlongs on easy ground, conditions which he should have today. He doesn’t need soft ground, he probably put up the best performance of his life when he won the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes at Newcastle last June in the pre-Tapeta days on ground that was just on the easy side of good, so this afternoon’s easy ground should be ideal.

He again proved his ability and his liking for a little bit of cut in the ground when he finished fourth in the Group 3 Abernant Stakes at Newmarket on his debut this season, just a total of a half a length behind the winner Magical Memory, and Magical Memory then went out next time and won the Group 2 Duke of York Stakes.

Aeolus dropped down to five furlongs for his next three runs, a trip that is sharper than ideal for him, but he didn’t run at all badly in two of those races, in the Palace House Stakes and the Temple Stakes.

He stepped back up to six furlongs for the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury and, on ground that was faster than ideal for him, he again acquitted himself well in finishing fourth behind The Tin Man.

The Araafa gelding should have his optimum conditions today for the first time since last April. Also, it is probable that Ed Walker has had the Ayr Gold Cup in mind for him for a little while and the trainer proved last week, with Captain Colby in the Portland, that he can prepare a horse to win a big handicap.

The handicapper dropped Aeolus 1lb for his run in the Hungerford Stakes, which takes him down to a mark of 107, 4lb lower than his peak.

Also, Walker has gone to the trouble of booking Hector Crouch, who is good value for his 5lb claim. Significantly, it is the first time in his life that Aeolus will be ridden by a claiming rider and we have seen in lots of these big handicaps this season how important a rider’s claim can be. Aeolus looks over-priced at 20/1.

MAGNUS MAXIMUS

It might also be worthwhile getting Magnus Maximus on side at 12/1. Robyn Brisland’s horse is not ideally drawn in stall 21, as you probably don’t want to be too close to the stands’ rail - you probably want to be middle to far side. However, the Holy Roman Emperor gelding is a front-runner and, as long as Harry Bentley can bounce him out fairly sharply, he should be able to move towards the centre of the track with no problem, away from the stands’ side, which is where the fields have been congregating all week.

The draw aside, Magnus Maximus is just a really progressive and potentially well-handicapped sprinter now. Impressive in winning a six-furlong handicap at Chelmsford off a mark of 93 in late August, he stepped forward from that to win a much better race at Ascot last time off a mark of 101, leaving the impression that he had more in hand than the one-and-a-half-length winning margin.

The handicapper raised him 5lb for that but, because this is an early-closing race, he gets to race off his old mark of 101 today, so he is 5lb well-in. He is the best-handicapped horse in the line-up.

He goes well on fast ground and on polytrack but, while very soft ground would have been a negative, he sprang a 33/1 shock on good to soft ground at Ascot last September, so ground on the easy side of good really should be fine for him.

Robyn Brisland’s horses are really good form, and Magnus Maximus does not have to step forward too much from his latest win at Ascot to give him a chance of going close.

RECOMMENDED

AEOLUS, 1 point each-way, 20/1 (generally)

MAGNUS MAXIMUS, 1 point each-way, 12/1 (generally)