Donn McClean

HOW do you know that it’s an open Derby? When the bookmakers say each-way four places, and when one of them says five.

It is an unusual Derby, in that there is no stand-out performer, not yet, and in that you can make a case for most of the runners. Wings Of Desire is the Dante winner and is lightly-raced and progressive, US Army Ranger is the Chester Vase winner and is similarly lightly-raced and progressive, Port Douglas was only just beaten in the Vase conceding 4lb, Deauville was only just beaten in the Dante.

Moonlight Magic is the Derrinstown winner, a contest in which neither Shogun nor Idaho had the run of the race, Ulysses was a really impressive winner of his maiden and is all the rage in Newmarket, Massaat brings the Guineas form into the Derby, Harzand won the Ballysax and will appreciate the easy ground, Humphrey Bogart won the Lingfield Derby Trial, Algometer won the Cocked Hat Stakes. And the rest.

COMPELLING

The case for Cloth Of Stars, however, is up there with the most compelling. The Andre Fabre-trained colt was a keen-going sort last year as a juvenile, when he won a Group 3 race and finished second to Robin Of Navan in the Group 1 Criterium de Saint-Cloud.

The Godolphin colt has stepped forward this season as a three-year-old. Winner of the Group 3 Prix La Force on his debut, he exacted his revenge on Robin Of Navan – who beat him twice last season – when he landed the Group 2 Prix Greffulhe at Saint-Cloud last month.

There was a lot to like about that performance. He settled well, he made good ground on the outside to hit the front inside the final furlong, and he stayed on well all the way to the line to win nicely.

The Prix La Force and the Prix Greffulhe are the races in which Andre Fabre ran Pour Moi before he sent him to Epsom to win the Derby in 2011, and it is significant that he spoke about Cloth Of Stars as a potential Epsom Derby horse after he won the Greffulhe.

A son of Sea The Stars, Cloth Of Stars is out of a sister to Oaks winner Light Shift, who has already produced Warrior Of Light, a winner over 12 furlongs. On breeding, therefore, Cloth Of Stars should improve for the step up from 10 furlongs to 12, and his style of racing gives extra credence to that hypothesis.

The easy ground is a positive, and his draw in stall 14 of 16 is not a negative. A middle draw is probably ideal, but you would prefer to be drawn high to low. A high draw means that you can round the first slight right-handed kink on the inside up the hill as you settle into a racing rhythm and adopt your position.

Hopefully Mickael Barzalona will not leave it as late as he left it on Pour Moi in 2011, but he is a good rider who, although light on Derby experience, is sure to have been well-schooled in the intricacies of the track. Odds of 7/1 about him are fair.

CORONATION CUP

Odds of 14/1 about Arabian Queen in the Coronation Cup are also fair. Postponed is obviously the horse to beat, but he is short, and this is his first run since his return from Dubai. It may be that he will be reaching his peak this season for the King George, not for today.

By contrast, it may be that this is Arabian Queen’s mid-season target, given how good she was in winning the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes at this meeting last year. That was over an extended mile, but we know that she stays 10 furlongs well and, although she has never finished better than sixth in two runs over a mile and a half, there is still every chance that she can stay the distance.

David Elsworth’s filly probably didn’t get due recognition for winning the Juddmonte International at York last August, as is often the case when a 50/1 shot wins a Group 1 race. It is true that she had the run of the race, but Golden Horn headed her before she battled back bravely to get up and win by a neck. And they had The Grey Gatsby and Time Test behind them in third and fourth places. That is rock solid Group 1 form.

She did disappoint in the Prix Vermeille next time, but she was too keen in that race, her first attempt at a mile and a half, and the race came up just over three weeks after her lung-bursting effort at York. It may have been too quick for her.

You also have to forgive her her run in the British Champions Fillies’ & Mares’ Stakes, but she went very fast very early in that race before fading. She was much better on her debut this season, in the Dahlia Stakes over nine furlongs at Newmarket, when she finished second to the potentially top-class Usherette, the pair of them clear of Amazing Maria and Irish Rookie. That should have brought her forward for today.

It is probable that Postponed’s stable companion Roseburg will make the running, but Arabian Queen does like to go forward, so hopefully Silvestre de Sousa will be able to adopt a nice handy position behind the pace-setter before kicking for home around the two-furlong pole.

Found and Simple Verse are obviously top-class, they are both Group 1-winning fillies, but Arabian Queen is a more interesting betting proposition at four times their odds. There is a good each-way shape to the race, so she is an each-way bet.

RECOMMENDED

Cloth Of Stars, 1 point win, 7/1 (generally)

Arabian Queen, 1 point each-way, 16/1 (BetVictor, William Hill) or 14/1 (generally)