4.10 Dubai Duty Free Irish Derby (Group 1) 1m 4f

Green Impact: Probably had the best level of form of any of these last season, beating Delacroix in both a maiden and the Champion Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown. Looked a middle-distance prospect over a mile last season but started his 2025 campaign in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, finishing sixth (beaten six and three-quarter lengths by Ruling Court). Connections noted that after travelling well, “when he got down to the dip he went to change his legs”, got unbalanced and lost a shoe in the process. Returned to winning ways with a workmanlike listed win over nine furlongs at Leopardstown 24 days ago. Step up in trip is a new query but should have a fair chance of staying this far, being out of a Galileo mare whose best form came at an extended mile and five furlongs.

Lambourn: Ballydoyle second-string on jockey bookings at Epsom but was the subject of steady but noticeable support ahead of the Derby, sent off at 13/2 (priced at 14/1 immediately after declarations) and running out a convincing winner by three and three-quarter lengths. Probably ended up getting a favourable pace set-up on that occasion, racing a little lazily in the first furlong and ridden to get to the front before not going a break-neck speed (winner and runner-up were in the first three almost throughout). Guaranteed stayer has been highly progressive, appears a most straightforward ride and is tough to pick holes in, though he did get things his own way last time.

Lazy Griff: A major surprise package this season, second to Lambourn in both the Chester Vase and Derby. Ended up being well-placed early on at Epsom but stuck to his task admirably enough to outrun his odds of 50/1. Not easy to find an obvious reason for him to turn the tables on his old rival, but can take home another portion of the €1.25 million on offer if he continues on this likeable, progressive roll.

Pride Of Arras: Smart maiden winner at Sandown on his only start at two, but it felt as though he came out of nowhere to an extent when readily landing the Dante at York as an 18/1 shot on his three-year-old bow. Sent off a 4/1 chance to win the Derby on the back of that but proved a bitter disappointment, beating only one home (the Dante second). Connections felt his inexperience meant he didn’t handle coming down the hill at Epsom. This track will offer a much fairer chance to see what he’s made of, but not many can bounce back from a 50-length defeat last time out to win a classic.

Puppet Master: Showed the benefit of experience when beating Tennessee Stud comprehensively enough in a Galway Festival maiden last season, later fourth to Wimbledon Hawkeye in the Royal Lodge at Newmarket. Some encouragement to be taken from his comeback effort in finishing fourth in the Ballysax, likely to have needed the run and bumping into the likes of Delacroix, Lambourn and Wemightakedlongway. Then showed a fine attitude to beat stablemate Stay True in the Lingfield Derby Trial (the well-held third went on to finish a respectable eighth in the Derby). Comes here with freshness on his side after bypassing Epsom and could be overpriced each-way at initial odds of 16/1.

Serious Contender: Looked extremely well-handicapped off 92 heading to Royal Ascot for the King George V Stakes 10 days ago, but unfortunately bumped into one of the best handicapped horses in Britain in the shape of William Haggas’ Merchant, only rated 90 at the time but thought highly enough of to have an entry in the Group 1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes. Came away from that second at the Royal Meeting with his reputation enhanced, and his rating promoted to 101, having found plenty for pressure and shaping like a strong stayer at this trip. Tougher task now stepping in Group 1 company and looks one who could be ridden prominently.

Shackleton: Looks a likely pace angle if able to get across from his wide draw in stall nine, having been ridden forwardly in the Queen’s Vase over a mile and six furlongs at Royal Ascot 11 days ago. Boxed on well, despite being headed at the top of the straight by the winner Carmers, beaten only a length and a half in fourth. Will need a career best to give the big guns a scare here, and possibly to build up a Sovereign-like head of steam.

Sir Dinadan: Pride Of Arras’ stablemate has won just once in five starts, that victory coming by eight lengths in a soft-ground Pontefract novice event over 10 furlongs last October. Form of his latest listed second at Goodwood last month looks better now since the four-length winner Amiloc followed up in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot. Would be a surprise winner on all known form.

Tennessee Stud:Runner-up in a strong Beresford Stakes last season that featured Derby hero Lambourn, Group 1 winner Hotazhell and Royal Ascot scorer Trinity College before taking advantage of a three-runner Group 1 at Saint-Cloud over 10 furlongs on heavy ground last October. Thought to have needed the run when a safely-held third in Leopardstown Derby Trial and took a massive step forward when third in the Derby at Epsom - faring best of those who raced from off the pace. Looks to be trained to gradually improve through first part of season and another chunk of progression would put him firmly in the mix, though he does have four and three-quarter lengths to find with Lambourn on their latest clash.

Thrice: Disappointing start to his season when rider reported his blinkered mount stopped quickly in the Chester Vase (beaten 15 and a half lengths by Lambourn and Lazy Griff in sixth), though right back on track when promoted to first in the Gallinule Stakes here five weeks ago (first past the post caused interference). Raced prominently last time and might be a candidate to do similar here, albeit his best run was at 10 furlongs.

Conclusion:

Lambourn deserves to be a short-priced favourite on the basis of his comprehensive Epsom triumph, though he did have plenty go his way on that occasion to see him to best effect. There will not be the same element of a surprise package about him this time. At the likely prices, it could be worth a little each-way play instead on Puppet Master, whose last run suggested he’s on the improve - and he comes here without having been in the melting pot of Epsom. We’ve seen Aidan O’Brien win this race with horses who aren’t the number-one on jockey bookings plenty of times, from all the way back to Soldier Of Fortune and Frozen Fire, to more recent examples like Capri and Sovereign. Adelaide River also gave Auguste Rodin a scare here two years ago. We don’t know how good Puppet Master is yet. The trip has been discussed as a possible uncertainty for Green Impact, but perhaps a slightly bigger concern is whether he’ll be hassled up front here and mightn’t be seen at his best as a result. He’s still a big player if he improves for the longer distance and brings his best. Pride Of Arras needs to bounce back but did show a touch of star quality at York, while Tennessee Stud could still be on the up..