Stayers’ Hurdle

The favourite:

Paisley Park (100/30)

As a fully paid-up member of the Paisley Park fan club, it pains me to suggest that the warrior has it all to do to regain his crown. No reason ever came to light for his flop in last year’s running and it was tempting to delete it from the memory when he showed his old spark in two starts last November and December.

In the Long Walk at Ascot, Paisley Park performed his old trick of looking beaten only to run on like a steam train and catch Thyme Hill near the post. He touched 64/1 in running at Ascot and, even if he wins the Stayers’ Hurdle next month, he will probably hit at least 10/1 at a late stage.

Looking back at his winning streak now, what did he ever beat of note? West Approach, Summerville Boy, an out-of-sorts Thistlecrack (never raced again), and Sam Spinner? Let’s face it, it’s been a weak division for a while now.

Main opposition:

Thyme Hill defeated Paisley Park on his seasonal reappearance and was then just collared by the same rival in the Long Walk at Ascot. He probably has more improvement to come and looks certain to reach the frame at least.

Front-runners have a poor record in this race and that puts me off Flooring Porter, who can get a bit worked up before his races and has never travelled before.

Matthew Smith has given last year’s runner-up Ronald Pump a quiet campaign and he has to be respected, while dual Pertemps Hurdle winner Sire Du Berlais hasn’t quite convinced since stepping out of handicap company but he has yet to run a bad race at Cheltenham and will no doubt arrive there in peak condition again.

Outsiders to note:

Willie Mullins surprised us all when he mentioned this race as a potential target for Irish Gold Cup winner Kemboy. Interesting angle, but he won’t get it easy in front with a big field likely.

A strong pace (and soft ground) will really suit Main Fact, the prolific handicap winner who has been overlooked since his limitations were seemingly exposed in the Long Walk. That was his seventh run in eight weeks, so he has to be given another chance.

In such an open-looking division, the French entry Paul’s Saga has to be taken seriously. A Grade 1 winner at Auteuil, she might not take to Cheltenham at all but, from the same stable as Easysland, she is worth a small wager if she turns up.

A cheeky shout-out too for Captain Zebo, the Gigginstown cast-off who has won all five of his starts so far for owner-rider John Dixon.

Verdict:

The more you look at his record, the more you have to admire THYME HILL. Third to Envoi Allen in the 2019 Champion Bumper, a close fourth behind Monkfish in the Albert Bartlett last season, he is progressing all the time. On only his second run in open company, he had the Long Walk sewn up, only to be mugged on the line by Paisley Park. Thyme Hill goes to Cheltenham fresh and his trainer Philip Hobbs is also hitting form. (MC)