Q: Many of the protagonists in the ante-post market for the Champion Hurdle have questions to answer. Do you think the race could provide a big-priced winner. If so, who?
Luke: Forgive Epatante’s Christmas reversal and you are suddenly getting 5/2 about a 5/4 chance. If you spent your gambling career trusting Henderson to get them right in March, you would definitely be in front. The two who look in great shape and form this year are the International Hurdle first and second, Song For Someone and Silver Streak, and whilst it’s hard to make a compelling case for either, they might be the best alternatives.
Sarah: Prior to Honeysuckle’s Irish Champion Hurdle success, this year’s renewal looked made for a bookmakers’ result. Better ground at Cheltenham and a fast pace to run at should see Abacadabras outrun his current odds. I’m a massive fan of Sharjah. He is often overlooked but his Christmas win at Leopardstown, winning his third Matheson Hurdle in a row, was brilliant. His odds are very tempting, considering his good Cheltenham record.
Michael: After the disappointment of Epatante at Kempton, the market became far more interesting than would have been expected. Honeysuckle is the deserving favourite but, at the current prices, the one I like is Sharjah who put up an excellent performance in winning the Matheson Hurdle at Leopardstown over Christmas. He ran a huge race in last year’s Champion Hurdle.
Matt: Although Epatante had an off day at Kempton, she still beat Ballyandy by the same distance as she had done in the 2019 Christmas Hurdle and full credit must go to Adam Wedge for the ride on Silver Streak. Aidan Coleman wasn’t hard on Epatante once her potent burst couldn’t be unleashed and she is still the one to beat, despite Honeysuckle emerging as a serious opponent.
Saint Roi has been disappointing this season but his County Hurdle win still lives on in the memory bank and he should not be forgotten about just yet, while his conqueror Sharjah has only three lengths to find on the Champion from last year’s running and again seems to have been underestimated.
After his defeat at Haydock, it would be a monumental performance of Lazarus proportions if Buveur D’Air were to regain his crown. Last year’s Triumph winner Burning Victory hasn’t been seen since March but she would get the mares’ allowance and the form hasn’t worked out too badly subsequently.
Brett: Nicky Henderson seems pretty confident that Epatante will be back on her ‘A’ game after suffering a surprise defeat in the Christmas Hurdle in December. Every horse is entitled to an off day and a few Henderson runners underperformed over Christmas, notably Altior. However, I don’t think that’s enough to write her off and if you go back to her Fighting Fifth success, she is the one they all have to catch. At a bigger price, rule out Buveur D’Air at your peril. You can guarantee Henderson will have the previous dual Champion Hurdle winner absolutely primed come March.
Barry: I don’t, if I’m being honest. Epatante obviously underperformed in the Christmas Hurdle but there were mitigating circumstances and she didn’t jump with her usual fluency. I’d be willing to forgive her that run and Nicky Henderson is a past master at getting his top hurdlers back in peak form for the Champion Hurdle. She’s my idea of the winner.
Q: Which horse is the biggest loser in your book?
Luke: Sire Du Berlais in the Stayers’ Hurdle is our biggest loser at time of writing. Laid plenty of 20/1, all the way down to 15/2. He’s now a 10/1 shot after finishing runner-up in the Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle. Another we have not stopped laying has been Monkfish for the Festival Novices’ Chase. Laid as big as 33/1 last year, he is now 15/8 favourite for the race. They would be the worst two results. That said, we aren’t a big ante-post firm. We are renowned for laying the real big bets the day of the race.
Sarah: Envoi Allen in the Marsh. Punters can’t get enough of him and it’s hard to blame them as he has been faultless so far in everything he has done.
Michael: It’s still relatively early days but our worst ante-post result is Frodon in the Gold Cup. He’s a popular ‘public’ horse and we had seen money for him prior to his King George win. I suspect that, come the day, with Bryony Frost on board, he will also be popular and probably one of our worst results in the race.
Matt: There are no big surprises amongst the biggest liabilities at this juncture. They include Shishkin (Arkle), Altior (Champion Chase), Envoi Allen (Marsh) and Paisley Park (Stayers’), Galvin (National Hunt Chase) and Sir Gerhard (Bumper).
Brett: Al Boum Photo would be the main one after we laid some chunky bets at decent odds after last year’s success. Willie Mullins has taken the same tried and tested path to Cheltenham and there are very few chinks in his armour. Similarly Epatante would be a big loser for us.
Barry: No massive liabilities at the moment but French Aseel was very well punted following his win in Leopardstown and that faith has only hardened following his recent purchase by Joe Donnelly.
Q: The novice hurdle scene seems a bit of a head-scratcher. Any strong views on who will line up where - and win?
Luke: Appreciate It and Bravemansgame look the two outstanding candidates but have hardly been missed by the books. I expect they will go for the Supreme and Ballymore respectively, and you could argue if we get spring ground both may be vulnerable. Cape Gentlemen looks an exciting project if he were to come over, whilst Gordon Elliott’s Percy Warner is another dark horse to keep on side. Zanahiyr and French Aseel are rightly at the top of the Triumph Hurdle market.
Sarah: Appreciate It was very good at Christmas and looks rock-solid for the Supreme. Bravemansgame shot to the front of the market after an impressive win at Newbury but looks opposable at his current odds in the Ballymore. Galillard Du Mesnil has improved massively with each run for Willie Mullins and could be the type to keep improving.
Michael: The two best performances in Britain have come from Metier who, I suspect, will go for the Supreme and Bravemansgame for the Ballymore. However, I’m drawn towards a couple of Willie Mullins horses who very much impressed over Christmas and again at the Dublin Racing Festival. In the Supreme, I think Appreciate It looks a very strong favourite for the race. I also like Gaillard Du Mesnil and I think he’s a major player for the Ballymore.
Matt: Appreciate It marked himself down as the main candidate to be the Irish banker for the Supreme with very impressive wins at Christmas and in February, and he comes from last year’s Champion Bumper that looks incredibly strong form. He will be the main hope of Willie Mullins’ who, I expect, will have a few darts.
So too may Harry Fry. His Metier impressed in the Tolworth on heavy ground, quickening up well in a race that admittedly looked a weak Grade 1. However, he was a 12-furlong horse on the flat and has already won over two and a quarter miles over hurdles. I wouldn’t be surprised if he tried to emulate Yorkhill who won the Tolworth and then the Ballymore.
With the absence of Ferny Hollow it looks set for Bravemansgame to follow in the footsteps of his illustrious stablemate Denman, who he has been likened to, to win this after his Challow Hurdle romp. Better ground will suit him even more in the spring. He is improving at a rate of knots over timber and seems to have a little more pace than the great ‘Tank’ had. He looks solid for the Ballymore.
Rebecca Curtis has a knack of producing good staying hurdlers - At Fishers Cross and Lisnagar Oscar have proven that in recent years - and she has two in her yard who have caught my eye for this race this season. Pats Fancy ran a good second in a trial over track and trip last month before running inexplicably badly at Doncaster at the end of January. Stable companion Beatthebullet did nothing but stay when winning at Hereford in November. Although he may not have the class of some, he gallops and gallops and, if it turned up soft or heavy, he may be interesting.
Brett: You can guarantee the Irish raiders will not be confirmed for any race until the very last minute but Appreciate It looks almost certain to line up in the Supreme and, if the ground is soft, I’d expect Metier to take his chance, too. He looked the real deal in the Tolworth Hurdle and Harry Fry has made no secret of the regard in which he holds him. I’m also a very big fan of Bravemansgame and wherever he goes he will be hard to beat. As well as being a proper galloper, he has a fair amount of pace which should make Paul Nicholls’ job slightly easier when deciding which race to go for.
Barry: Metier appeared as a novice of enormous potential in winning the Tolworth and, all being well, he was due to take in the Betfair Hurdle on his way to the Supreme. It makes perfect sense and should give him the big-field experience he needs ahead of the Festival opener.
Q: Is there something that has caught your eye this season with the Cheltenham handicaps in mind?
Luke: The Moyglass Flyer, Get My Drift, Emily Moon and Pont Aven all caught my eye in recent weeks.
Sarah: Dickie Diver had a nice return to action after Christmas and has a bit of back-class. He looks well up to being very competitive wherever he turns up. The Bosses Oscar has been mentioned by a few shrewdies for the Pertemps and Sky Pirate in the Grand Annual is another one people like. Punters will be latching on as it seems he has found his ideal trip now. Buzz for the County Hurdle is another one I like.
Michael: It’s very hard to say at this stage but one horse who has caught my eye is Entoucas, trained by Joseph O’Brien. For a novice, he did well to finish fourth in the Grade A Dan & Joan Moore Handicap Chase at Fairyhouse in January and caught the eye again when fourth in a similar race at the Dublin Racing Festival.
Matt: The Glancing Queen has been given a mark of 131 after finishing third in the Challow, which wouldn’t have been high enough to get her into a Festival handicap in 2020, but she could win off that mark before Cheltenham. Alan King has her down as a Grade 1 mare.
One For The Team did not run badly on his handicap debut at Doncaster in January and could be one for the Ultima in which novices have an excellent record.
The Leopardstown qualifier over Christmas, won by Dandy Mag, is usually the best guide to solving the Pertemps puzzle.
Brett: There’s nothing that jumps off the page but Mario De Pail could be worthy of interest if he gets in the Coral Cup or Pertemps, and I’ll be paying close attention to wherever Dickie Diver ends up.
Barry: Front View is a horse I’ve though would be suited to a race such as the Grand Annual. He was sent off favourite in the Martin Pipe last year but things didn’t work out for him there. They have gone chasing with him this season. On his present mark it would be touch and go if he gets in at Cheltenham.
Q: Altior - Champion Chase or Ryanair?
Luke: I would let him enjoy his richly deserved retirement whilst still near the top. If pushed it would be the Champion Chase.
Sarah: Champion Chase, although I fear his best days are behind him. He was so used to beating Min but this time he will have Chacun Pour Soi to beat and that’s no easy task and I’m not sure if we will see the same Altior again.
Michael: Altior isn’t perhaps the horse he once was but you would have to be brave to write him off. I would personally go the Champion Chase route, as he has had so much success at this distance previously. The recent performances of Chacun Pour Soi have been exhilarating, but the old saying ‘never be afraid of one horse’ makes me think the two-mile option might be best.
Matt: Champion. Even in defeat at Kempton, he beat Duc De Genievres by almost five lengths which puts him four lengths ahead of fifth favourite Put The Kettle On and he has a 3-0 advantage over Tingle Creek winner and reigning champion Politologue. He may not be the force of old, but he isn’t proven over the Ryanair trip, despite always finding for pressure and a strongly-run two miles will give him the best chance of a fifth Festival success.
Brett: I would be surprised if Nicky Henderson opts to run in the Ryanair, simply because it doesn’t carry as much prestige. There’s no doubt that Altior is no longer the force he was, but he’s still a blinking good horse and we all saw how Sprinter Sacre came back from the wilderness.
Barry: He owes them nothing and, although I wouldn’t fancy him in it, I’d go to the Champion Chase for one last hurrah.
Q: Has Paisley Park been popular in the ante-post market? Anything at bigger prices been nibbled at?
Luke: We saw money at 8/1 and 7/1 before his opening run at Newbury in the Long Distance Hurdle, but we have him on side in the book which isn’t a bad place to be looking at the market. Since then, money has been for Sire Du Berlais as previously mentioned. Punters clearly think he can win at the Festival again and what a sight it would be. That’s what the Festival and jump racing is all about, returning horses that have such a public following.
Sarah: He hasn’t been unpopular but there is a good spread of money in the race. The front three are all well supported.
Michael: Paisley Park has been relatively popular, although surprisingly the Stayers’ Hurdle market has really caught the public’s imagination as of yet. The two horses that were popular prior to them disappointing were McFabulous and Sire Du Berlais. At present the pair of them are both losers in our book.
Matt: As mentioned before, he is a liability in the ante-post book and it was great to see him win at Ascot. However, he is very closely matched with Thyme Hill on this season’s exploits, so I’d rather just side with the young pretender at the prices.
Roksana hasn’t too much to find, with the mares’ allowance, while last year’s winner Lisnagar Oscar wasn’t disgraced on his seasonal return and bounced back from some below-par efforts last season. Discount him at your peril.
Brett: Paisley Park is very quickly becoming a ‘people’s horse’ because there’s such a great story surrounding him and our traders were quick to shorten him back up after scoring at Ascot last time. Thyme Hill has been popular, along with Benie Des Dieux.
Barry: He was one of the most fancied favourite at the Festival last year, going off at 4/6 but he won’t be the colour of that this time around and that’s mostly down to the appearance of Thyme Hill on the staying scene. They look to have the division tied up between them but, for a bit of value, I would be keen on Sire Du Berlais as an each-way play. Gordon Elliott’s horses were very in and out during the Christmas period and I’d forgive him the Leopardstown run.
Q: Looking at the Gold Cup, Does Al Boum Photo make it a historic third win in the race? If not, give us your idea of the winner.
Luke: Super solid placepot banker, but not unbeatable.
Sarah: It’s what we all want to see and I think he is certainly the one to beat. His usual prep at Tramore has been working out well for him, so I’m very excited to see him in the Gold Cup.
Michael: I loved the way A Plus Tard stayed on so strongly to win the Savills Chase. He has age on his side and could easily be improving. The return of Al Boum Photo was perfectly satisfactory, but the Henry de Bromhead runner might just have the beating of him come March in the Gold Cup.
Matt: I’m not sure he travelled particularly well at Tramore. It’s a tried and tested method for Willie Mullins, and for Gold Cup winners in general of late, to have a light campaign before the Blue Riband. He would be just the fifth horse to win it three times and I can’t see any of those he conquered last year reversing the form, so it’s left to the new brigade to challenge.
Champ left me with egg on my face in the RSA last year as I could not have him the way he had jumped. This season he has been to Henrietta Knight’s to school (he’s related to Best Mate) and, if that has ironed him out, he’d be a huge threat as there is no doubting his engine.
Minella Indo has excellent Festival form, although he has blotted his copybook twice at Leopardstown this season.
Then there is A Plus Tard, who surprisingly stayed on strongly to win the Savills Chase to mark himself down as a contender, but this is a further test of those stamina credentials that may find just find him out. All that said, Al Boum Photo is the standard bearer that the others are yet to match and at this stage he looks the likeliest winner.
Brett: I can’t see any reason why he won’t, but I’ll be surprised if Santini doesn’t end up wearing some form of headgear and he deserves to get his head in front after a couple luckless defeats at the Festival.
Frodon and Imperial Aura have questions to answer over the trip but are classy and could easily run well at juicy odds.
Q: Give us a Cheltenham Festival Lucky 15:
Luke: Sire Du Berlais (Stayers’ Hurdle), Imperial Aura (Ryanair Chase), Nassalam (Triumph Hurdle) and Champ (Gold Cup).
Sarah: Ontheropes (National Hunt Chase), Vanillier (Albert Bartlett), Minella Indo (Gold Cup) and Appreciate It (Supreme).
Michael: Appreciate It (Supreme Novices’), Concertista (Mares’ Hurdle), Sir Gerhard (Champion Bumper) and Saint Calvados (Ryanair Chase).
Matt: Bravemansgame (Ballymore), Mohaayed (Pertemps Final), Colreevy (Mares’ Chase) and Sky Pirate (Grand Annual).
Brett: Shishkin (Arkle), Monkfish (Festival Novices’ Chase), Chacun Pour Soi (Champion Chase) and Epatante (Champion Hurdle).
Barry: Metier (Supreme), Epatante (Champion Hurdle), Monkfish (Festival Novices’ Chase) and Easysland (Cross Country).