Konfusion

Trustmarque Ultima Handicap Chase (Tuesday)

The Ultima is a rare Festival race that falls under a ‘no Irish’ winner banner and has a wider selection of trainers than most Festival contests, with Nick Williams, David Bridgewater, Lucinda Russell, Sue Smith and Kim Bailey on the score sheet in the last 10 years.

Northern trainers have a good record, Corach Rambler was 10/1 for Lucinda Russell as she began her three from four wins.

Sue Smith broke a lot of trends with the 11-year-old Vintage Clouds in 2021 and it could be worth an each-way shot with the stable’s Konfusion at around 16/1.

The Joel Parkinson and Sue Smith yard has had a good season and Konfusion was progressive until a beaten favourite in the Peter Marsh Chase, but he is 6lb better off with winner Imperial Saint from Haydock.

There are strong reasons for opposing three shorter than him in the markets, Handstands (weight and distance), Jagwar (distance) and Myretown (form and jumping) and he could be a bit of each-way value.

Wendigo

Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Wednesday)

Willie Mullins holds a strong hand with long-time favourite Final Demand and the DRF winner Kaid d’Authie and possibly Kitzbuhel, but there are grounds for thinking they have more to prove and are worth taking on. The ground may be drying out, so could suit the two Elliott horses also.

Final Demand’s poor run at Leopardstown saw that race’s winner Kaid d’Authie take stronger prominence. But Kaid d’Authie went off at 40/1 when pulled up in the Turners last season, where Final Demand was a beaten favourite in third.

Despite his good novice form this season, Kaid d’Authie has taken quite a big step up this season to be near favourite. His prominent running style may not be suited by this test and you have to take his stamina for three miles and a furlong on trust.

The best option may be to take a solid staying horse, more in the mould of Lecky Watson than Fact To File. Wendigo finished fifth, beaten eight lengths by Jasmin De Vaux in the Albert Bartlett last season. He stays well and is two from four over fences, he won well at Newbury over shorter.

Kempton didn’t suit him, but he really measured his fences in winning at Ayr. At around 6/1, he has less doubts to overcome than the two Mullins horses, for all that they might be classier.

Favori De Champdou

Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase (Wednesday)

Seventeen of the last 20 winners were trained in Ireland and 14 of the 20 had won over the course already. Last year’s winner Stumptown was the long-time favourite, but based on last year’s win. Much has happened since. His stable has not been in the best form and he is absent since a tough race in the Czech Republic.

This looks a stronger race, Favori De Champdou, Desertmore House and Conflated are better class than most of those who ran last year.

With a course win in January, Favori De Champdou went up 8lb and receives 5lb from last year’s winner and, despite connections playing that as a negative, his Paddy Power Chase form is a cut above what most of these have achieved. He is taken to give the Gordon Elliott yard winner number seven in the last nine years.

Impose Toi

Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Thursday)

The Stayers’ Hurdle looks a terrific betting heat with at least six getting favourable mentions on the preview circuit. The winners of the last two runnings, two new J.P. contenders and two ‘newbies’ in Ma Shantou and Kabral Du Mathan have shaken up the markets.

Teahupoo, Bob Olinger, Ma Shantou and Kabral Du Mathan all come off pleasing runs this season. But perhaps the value comes from one who seems to have fallen out of favour after a defeat last time. Cleeve Hurdle winner Ma Shantou is now 7/1 and Impose Toi, who was even-money to beat him in January’s contest is available at 14s in places. That just looks too big.

Nicky Henderson was adamant at Cheltenham at the January meeting that Impose Toi would be the most inconvenienced by the tough underfoot conditions. He should find it better next week. To be beaten seven lengths, giving 6lb to the winner, might be much better than it looked. He beat a good field in the Grade 1 Howden Long Walk Hurdle and he has more in the book than Kabral Du Mathan, who is now also much shorter.

Panic Attack

Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase (Friday)

Five runnings, five Irish-trained winners, so it might be folly to go against the trend but it’s hard to ignore how good Panic Attack has looked in her three wins this season, plus the positive comments from Dan Skelton’s pre-Festival stable tours.

Dinoblue was good last year, but this is much tougher, while Spindleberry found the Irish Gold Cup too hot. She is respected but the Skelton mare has a lot of experience, has course form and comes at the peak of her game, and looks over-priced at 5/1 against the favourite.