ZARWAAN has shaped for a while now as if there is a big handicap in him off this type of mark, and today could be the day for Ed Dunlop’s horse.

It is strange to think that he has won just once in his life, a maiden at Haydock as a juvenile when he was sent off at 4/6, but he has run some really good races in defeat.

One of those runs was on his only run over today’s distance of seven furlongs at Newbury on his three-year-old debut, when he finished second to the impressive Muwaary, who was finished fourth in the French 2000 Guineas on his next run after racing too freely, and who finished second to Mustajeeb in the Jersey Stakes on his next.

On his next run last year, Zarwaan was a slightly unlucky second behind Chatez in the Silver Bowl at Haydock over a mile, before going to Ascot and finishing a close-up fifth behind Born In Bombay in the Britannia Handicap at Royal Ascot off a mark of 101.

His three-year-old form gives him a lot of the attributes that you need to win a Victoria Cup. We know that he is effective over seven furlongs, and we know that he can operate on the straight track at Ascot.

Also, he is probably at his best when he can get his toe in a little, and that is a positive with all the rain around this week.

He shaped well on his debut this season as well in the Lincoln. He travelled well through his race and he arrived there in the front rank a furlong out, but he didn’t have much racing room and he ultimately faded a little to finish fifth. He shaped that day as if a drop back down to seven furlongs would be in his favour.

He is only four and he has raced just seven times in his life, so he still has lots of scope for progression. The handicapper has left him on his mark of 102, which is a mark that should be well within his capabilities when he has conditions in his favour, as he has today, and Ed Dunlop has his horses in good form, as evidenced by Trip To Paris’ win in the Chester Cup on Wednesday.

There are lots of dangers, obviously, including Buckstay, who is better than he was able to show in the Spring Cup at Newbury last time, and Emell, who looked very unlucky at Goodwood last time and who looks like a rejuvenated character in his blinkers. However, 12/1 about Zarwaan may represent the best value in the race.

The Swinton Hurdle at Haydock has cut up a fair bit since the five-day declarations were made on Monday. We still have a maximum field of 17, but a few of the fancied horses are out, and that could present The Plan Man with a good opportunity.

The Gigginstown House Stud horse ran a cracker to finish fourth behind Some Article in a big handicap hurdle at the Fairyhouse Irish Grand National meeting on his first run since last October. He was sent off an unconsidered 28/1 shot that day, yet he travelled well into the home straight before lack of a recent run took its toll.

That was a hot handicap.

The winner followed up in another big handicap hurdle at Punchestown off a 6lb higher mark, while the runner-up, Clondaw Warrior, finished a close-up third behind Sort It Out in another big handicap at Punchestown off a 5lb higher mark.

The Plan Man ran in Some Article’s race at Punchestown, but he unseated his rider early on when travelling well.

Of course, it was too far out to know how he would have fared, but it is interesting that Bryan Cooper chose to ride him instead of The Game Changer in that race, and The Game Changer finished third, beaten a total of just over a length. It is more than possible that The Plan Man would have been involved.

The Tony Martin-trained gelding gets to race today off a British mark of 134, which is just 2lb higher than his Irish mark, and that is fair. He is an improving five-year-old who comes into the race fresher than most at this time of the year.

Significant overnight rain would be a worry, but he won his maiden hurdle on soft ground, and he should get the fast pace that seems to suit him well. He is worth backing at 8/1.

RECOMMENDED

ZARWAAN, 12/1 (generally) 1 point each-way

THE PLAN MAN, 8/1 (generally) 1 point each-way