Donn McClean

THREE things about this afternoon’s Betfair Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock from a trends perspective. Firstly, the last seven winners were aged five or six. Secondly, eight of the last nine winners carried 10st 13lb or more and five of them carried 11st 2lb or more. And thirdly, six of the last 10 winners were French-bred.

It shouldn’t be surprising that the race is dominated by young horses. Lots of big handicaps are. The young ones are the ones who have the potential for progression, the ones who are unexposed and who have the propensity to go beyond the handicap ratings off which they race.

The highweight thing tells you that the classier horses generally come to the fore in this contest, that, for whatever reason, their class can overcome the extra weight that with which they are lumbered.

And the French thing? Perhaps it is down to the obstacles. That the French-bred horses have either raced or been extensively schooled over these fixed-brush-type obstacles, obstacles over which British and (even if to a slightly lesser degree) Irish horses generally have limited experience.

Yala Enki fits all the trends: a six-year-old who progressed throughout last season as a novice, who was bred in France and raced there until he was five, over hurdles and fences, and who is set to carry 11st 2lb.

More than just the trends, however, Venetia Williams’ horse has plenty in his favour besides.

He has the potential to put in a performance today that goes beyond the mark of 139 off which he races. Winner of the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton last season and third in the Heroes Hurdle at Sandown off a mark of 138, he was raised to a mark of 142 after that, but he was dropped back down to 139 after poor runs at Cheltenham and Aintree, on ground that should have been faster than ideal for him.

It would not be surprising if his trainer has had this race in mind for him since then. He ran in the race last year, but he was a novice then, and he got involved in an early battle for the lead. Harry Cobden takes over today, his 3lb claim is a bonus and hopefully he will not be too aggressive.

Aggression is good in this race, it is a race in which prominent racers do well, and that is a positive for Yala Enki. You just don’t want to go too fast too early.

He stays two and a half miles well, so this extended two miles and six furlongs should be ideal for him, he goes well on soft ground, and this is the time of year at which the Venetia Williams horses generally start to zing. He could run a big race.

FASCINATING CONTEST

The preamble to the Betfair Chase has been dominated by the match between Cue Card and Coneygree, and it is a fascinating contest for all of that. Cue Card has to bounce back from his Charlie Hall Chase run, but he is more than capable of so doing. He was carrying the maximum 10lb penalty that day, it was his seasonal debut, and he was probably ridden more aggressively than was efficient.

He has a big chance today. He is 10 now, but Snoopy Loopy won the race as a 10-year-old in 2008, and we don’t know that Cue Card does not retain all of the ability that he displayed last year.

Coneygree is nine, but he has raced just five times over fences. Remarkable. Remember, he was a seven-year-old novice when he won the Gold Cup.

A lot depends on his level of fitness, because he is probably going to have to have attained a high level of fitness if he is to win this on the soft ground.

Silviniaco Conti looks over-priced against the big two at 7/1. Paul Nicholls’ horse has won two of the last four renewals of this contest and, while he was pulled up in two of his four races over fences last season, his return this term at Down Royal was really encouraging.

He jumped well, he travelled nicely in front and, while he was well beaten by Valseur Lido in the end, the Gigginstown House horse is a top class performer, a potential Gold Cup horse this season, and Silviniaco finished well clear of everything else.

He is a horse who always progresses from his seasonal debut. The Timeform figure that he has recorded on his second run of the season has been higher than he has recorded on his seasonal debut for each of the last five seasons, significantly so on the last two seasons. He invariably comes on for a run.

If he improves just a little on his Down Royal run, that should take him close to the top two, and if he improves a lot, it could take him past them. That is more than possible. Irish Cavalier is probably an under-rated horse, but the soft ground is against him. The ground does bring Seeyouatmidnight into it, but he still has to prove that he is as good as the top horses. He is rated 14lb inferior to Silviniaco Conti on official ratings, and he is a shorter price. He could well improve sufficiently to win today, but, on the evidence that we have at present, there is no doubting where the value lies.

RECOMMENDED

YALA ENKI, 1 point win, 8/1 (generally)

SILVINIACO CONTI,1 point win, 7/1 (generally)