1:40 Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) 5f 34y
The booking of Hollie Doyle is certainly no negative to the chances of Equilateral, who has been a rather frustrating character, but has the best form on offer in this Group 3 contest, courtesy of his second in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot.
As a hold-up performer, he’s sometimes a hostage to fortune, and things have not really fallen for him in recent starts. With the field reduced to seven after the scratching of Moss Gill and Jabbarockie, the selection should be able to avoid traffic for a change, and this race is his to lose.
2:15 Dubai Duty Free Handicap 1m 2f
Plenty make more immediate appeal, but it would be folly to underestimate Breden here, for all a solitary run in the past 12 months points to further training troubles. Linda Jewell has done very well with the fragile Breden since picking him up as a crock a few years ago, and he has run in three handicaps at this track for her, winning all of them, including one over at this fixture in 2017. He was better than ever last spring when placed in the Lincoln off 99 before winning again over the straight mile here in May.
His season ended prematurely, and he looked rusty on his belated return at Ascot, but he’s quickly fallen to a mark 6lb lower than for last season’s course win, and while he’s now a 10-year-old, he has spent much of his career on the sidelines, and is not over-raced for his age. The chances are that one run will still leave him short of peak condition, and he certainly can’t be a confident pick, but on the flip side, he’s already as big as 50/1 and given his unfashionable connections and his age, he could drift to a much bigger price yet. If that is the case, then I will not let him go unbacked.
2:50 Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3) 1m 3f
Desert Encounter had excuses for his first defeat at Windsor last time, with a bad stumble on the home bend enough to call that a write-off, but he also ended up in a blind alley in the closing stages, and it’s a race I’m sure Jamie Spencer would love to be able to rewrite.
He’s a dual winner of this contest and has ideal conditions once more, so while it’s been a frustrating season for him, I think David Simcock’s veteran can score again, and improve his trainer’s remarkable record in the race, which he has won four times in the past five years.
3:25 Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) 6f
Bahrain Pride looks the pick in the Mill Reef Stakes, but as usual, this is a race to watch with a view to the future, particularly this year, when the juvenile pecking order is taking longer to sort itself out than usual.
The selection beat Fivethousandtoone on debut at Windsor, and impressed me enormously when landing the Ripon Two-Year-Old Trophy next time, seeming to have plenty in hand despite having the worst of the draw and not handling Ripon’s infamous ridges at all well to my eye. The bare form gives him a solid chance, while the visual impression is that he will improve again for the return to a more galloping track.
Ayr Saturday
1:55 Jordan Electrics Doonside Cup (Listed) 1m 2f
Like most of the country, Ayr has been bathed in sunshine for the last few days, but the Indian summer doesn’t seem to be drying the ground out. I was a little sceptical about the advance going description, but if anything the race times seem to suggest the going was even softer than advertised.
That presents me with a dilemma, as I really wanted to be against Addeybb on drying ground. He’s clearly best on testing ground, and the 7lb he must concede for his Group 1 wins in Australia leave him vulnerable, so I’d be keen on Fox Chairman in receipt of weight, as Andrew Balding’s charge is effective on a range of ground.
That confidence would be greatly increased if Friday’s times suggest the turf is getting quicker, but he’s a value bet in any case, with his form solid at this level of competition.
2:30 QTS Ayr Silver Cup Handicap 6f
Arbalet is a frustrating character, but he owes me nothing having been unlucky despite repaying each-way support at Ascot two starts back, and his record when ridden by Josephine Gordon bears repeating, with that run bringing the partnership an overall record of 21152, with the unplaced run a career-best effort behind Expert Eye in the 2018 Jersey Stakes.
He’s had trouble at the stalls before, but has popped out in front on his last two starts, showing bundles of natural pace and looks like he’s worth another try at six furlongs, while a draw near the far rail is probably a positive.
It’s true he ran moderately last time, but I was happy to back him at Ascot after a poor Chelmsford run, and that logic should hold true again.
3:40 QTS Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) 6f
My initial reaction looking at this race is that there are reasons to be against most of the market leaders either from a handicapping viewpoint, or purely on price, and there doesn’t seem to be an outstanding candidate, saving possibly Nahaarr, who looked on a sharp upward curve until disappointing in the Stewards’ Cup.
That wasn’t a terrible run by any means, and it’s easy to see him getting back on track, but while I’d say he’s deserving of favouritism, there’s not enough in his current price to excite me, especially as being held up in the middle may not be ideal.
Nahaarr was third in the Silver Wokingham at Ascot behind Chiefofchiefs, and is now 7lb higher after winning his next race. Gabrial The Wire was a close fifth in that contest, faring best of those drawn on the far side, and also won his next race, beating subsequent Epsom winner Muntadab.
He’s only 2lb higher than at Ascot, and is weighted to reverse form with Nahaarr, but is a 40/1 shot compared to 8/1 for the Haggas horse. That seems much too big to me, and while you have to forgive a couple of modest Chester runs, I’m happy to say in public that I don’t believe that every horse owned by Dr Marwan Koukash is necessarily a Chester specialist.
Given the possibility that Chester may not be his cup of tea, I think Gabrial The Wire is likely to be underestimated here, and the return to a well-run six furlongs is liable to be a better scenario for in which to showcase his talents.
Recommended:
Arbalet 2:30 Ayr – 1pt e/w @ 22/1 Hills or 20/1 BetVictor (5 places)
Bahrain Pride 3:25 Newbury – 1pt win @ 4/1 (general)
Gabrial The Wire 3:40 Ayr – 1pt e/w @ 40/1 Hills (6 places) or 33/1 Paddy Power (7 places)