Donn McClean

STRANGE that there are only 16 declarations for this afternoon’s Betfair Hurdle. This used to be a two-mile cavalry charge, the Charge of the Light Brigade (sponsored by Schweppes). Even in recent times, only once in the last decade have there been fewer than 20 runners in the race, and that was in 2011, when the race was rescheduled and the winner’s prize money reduced to a paltry 34 grand.

Actually twice: there were no runners in 2009.

So just 16 runners today as things stand, and if somebody stood on a stone or got a head cold this morning, there will not be four places for betting purposes on the Tote Gold Trophy, and that is just odd.

It doesn’t make it any easier to find the winner, mind you. You can make a case for many. Unsurprisingly, it is a race that is usually won by a young progressive hurdler who is well ahead of the handicapper. Slightly surprisingly though, every single one of the last 10 winners was aged five or six.

THE FAVOURITE

You can see the case for favourite Ballyandy. Last year’s Champion Bumper winner, he has shaped well in his three runs over hurdles this season to date, and trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies said earlier in the week that he thought his horse has been let in lightly on a mark of 135.

However, he still hasn’t won over hurdles, and the form of the Winter Novices’ Hurdle in which he finished second is not working out overly well, with the three horses who finished immediately behind him all going and getting beaten since. Also, while the winner Messire Des Obeaux won the Challow Hurdle next time, he was beaten in a listed race at Huntingdon on Thursday.

As well as that, there remains the suspicion that Ballyandy will be better over further than the minimum trip. He is by Kayf Tara out of a mare who won over two and a half miles, he stayed the two and a half miles at Sandown last time and he was tough and gritty in winning the Champion Bumper last March. He is short enough at no better than 9/2.

You can also see the case for Movewiththetimes. JP McManus’ horse was only a length behind Ballyandy when fifth in the Grade 2 Sharp Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham’s November meeting, when he was squeezed out of it at the top of the home straight and when he was conceding 4lb to the Nigel Twiston-Davies horse. He only has to concede 1lb to him today, he has won at Wincanton since, and Barry Geraghty has chosen to ride him in front of De Name Escapes Me and Hargam.

However, at a bigger price, William H Bonney may offer better value. Alan King’s horse was a progressive novice hurdler last season, and connections thought enough of him to allow him take his chance in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival last March.

Well beaten on his debut this season in a good handicap hurdle at Kempton’s Christmas meeting, when he was keener than ideal through the early stages of the race, he bounced out of that to win a decent handicap hurdle at Cheltenham on Cotswold Chase day last month.

He travelled really well through his race that day, he moved up nicely behind Wait For Me on the run around the home turn, he picked up well to hit the front at the final flight, and he stayed on up the hill to win well.

He only got home by a length in the end from Man Of Plenty, but it appeared that he wasn’t doing that much in front once he got there. It is probable that he won with more than the bare winning margin in hand.

The handicapper raised him 4lb for that win, but he has to carry a 5lb penalty today, so he is effectively 1lb badly-in, but that is eminently surmountable. More importantly, he has the potential to be significantly better than the mark of 137 off which he races today.

Still just six, he has raced just twice this season and just six times over hurdles in total, so he has plenty of potential for further progression. He handles soft ground well, this is his trip and, on his only previous run at Newbury, over today’s course and distance in December last season, he ran a cracker to finish second to Premier Bond in a decent contest, the pair of them clear. He has the excellent Wayne Hutchinson for company, and Alan King has his horses in top form.

THE BET

Clyne is a player, he won the invisible race in the fog at Haydock in December – which we didn’t know that he had won until he came back and went into the winner’s enclosure – and he gave The New One a scare at Haydock last time. He is 5lb well-in, but the defection of original top weight Renneti means that he now has 11st 9lb to carry, which is a lot in a race in which no winner has carried more than 11st 7lb since Persian War won it under 11st 13lb in 1968.

Veinard is interesting off his low weight and off a British mark of 126, just 3lb higher than his mark in Ireland, while De Name Escapes Me is a fascinating contender on his seasonal debut. Ballyhill could out-run big odds, and Wait For Me would be a player if he could improve the efficiency of his jumping but, at the prices, William H Bonney is the bet.

You can understand why they have made Tobefair favourite for the three-mile handicap hurdle earlier in the day, Debra Hamer has done remarkably well with him, he is now six for six since joining her in the summer of 2015, but Scotchtown could represent a little bit of value against the favourite.

Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse has a length and a half to make up on Tobefair from their running at Warwick last month, but there are reasons for believing that he can bridge that gap. As well as the fact that he is 3lb better off compared to the terms on which they met at Warwick, he didn’t enjoy the run of the race that day. He chased a fast pace in a race in which it was probably an advantage to be held up.

As well as that, he kept on well after he had been passed by the winner and after he was hampered at the second last flight. He can probably be marked up at least a little on the bare form of that run.

He is only five, he is two years younger than his conqueror that day, and he has raced just four times over hurdles. Also, that was just his second run over a stayer’s trip, so he has lots of potential for progression as a staying hurdler.

RECOMMENDED

WILLIAM H BONNEY, 1 point each-way, 8/1 (generally)

SCOTCHTOWN, 1 point win, 7/2 (generally)

Winner

Donn’s headline tip last week Lord Of The Island won the Heroes Handicap Hurdle at Sandown at 10/1.