Donn McClean

THERE was a significant shake-up in the betting for this afternoon’s BetBright Chase at Kempton when ante-post favourite Tea For Two was taken out of the race at final declaration stage on Thursday (in favour of a tilt at the Gold Cup, for which you can back him at around 75 on Betfair).

It leaves Double Shuffle now as the new favourite, and you can see why. Tom George’s horse stayed on well to win a decent handicap chase over today’s course and distance over Christmas, and, given that he proved himself over the course on his first visit there that day, it is probable that his trainer has kept him for today since then. Today’s race was the logical target.

He is only seven, so he has scope for further progress as a staying chaser.

There are negatives though. That race at Christmas may not have been that strong in the end. Go Conquer, who was second, was beaten out of sight by Tenor Nivernais at Ascot last Saturday off just a 1lb higher mark, while third-placed Out Sam, who gave away ground by jumping continually to his left that day, was well beaten in the Sky Bet Chase next time back at a left-handed track.

Double Shuffle was raised 6lb for that win, which is not overly lenient. He has raced nine times over fences, and he is going to have to progress again off his career-high mark if he is going to win today. He is short enough.

POTENTIAL

Three Musketeers has greater potential for progression, and he looks over-priced at 7/1 or 15/2. A high-class novice hurdler – he was third behind Nichols Canyon in the Grade 1 Mersey Hurdle at Aintree on his third and final run as a novice hurdler after winning his first two – Dan Skelton’s horse shaped like a promising novice chaser last season when he won a Grade 2 contest at Newbury’s Hennessy meeting.

He didn’t progress as he might have after that, although he wasn’t disgraced in fourth place behind Black Hercules and Bristol De Mai and L’Ami Serge in the JLT Chase at Cheltenham, at a trip/ground combination that should have been sharper than ideal for him.

Well beaten on his debut this season at Aintree in October, he was keeping on when he unseated his rider at the second last fence in a decent handicap chase at Newbury’s Hennessy meeting in November. He probably would have finished in front of Double Shuffle that day, and he is 3lb better off with Tom George’s horse today.

More importantly, Three Musketeers was very good last time at Market Rasen in his first-time cheekpieces. His jumping was good and, allowed stride on into the lead at the fifth last fence, he stayed on well to beat the well-backed Kilcrea Vale, the pair of them clear of the useful Kings Odyssey.

The handicapper raised him just 2lb for that win, and that was more than fair. It leaves him on a mark of 152 for today, which is 3lb lower than the mark he was allotted after he won that Grade 2 novices’ chase last season, and it is a mark that he has the potential to surpass. He will not mind some rain and it is not surprising that the cheekpieces are retained today. He is still just seven and, with just seven chases under his belt and with that confidence-boosting last-time-out win in the bag, he has potential to progress again now, stepping up to three miles for the first time.

TOUGH DECISION

It is going to be tough at Newcastle in the Eider Chase. You are going to need a horse who stays well and who can handle heavy ground.

Knockanrawley has those attributes. At his best on soft ground, Kim Bailey’s horse ran well on the only occasion on which he encountered heavy to finish second behind Tidal Dance in a novices’ hurdle at Towcester three years ago.

Fourth in this race two years ago, admittedly on ground that was better than the ground that he is going to encounter today, he ran just once last season, he ran a cracker to finish a close-up third in the three-and-a-half-mile handicap chase at Cheltenham’s November meeting off a mark of 136.

He also ran a cracker in the Classic Chase at Warwick on his return this term, his first run since, after a break of 14 months. Up with the pace from early, he seemed to tire as they faced the five fences down the side of the track final time, and his jumping over those fences was not that fluent as a result.

He seemed to get his second wind, however, as they turned for home, and he stayed on well over the last two fences to take fifth place, beaten just a head by Houblon Des Obeaux for fourth.

He has 13 lengths to find with today’s favourite Shotgun Paddy on that run, and he is only 1lb better off today, but that was his seasonal debut, whereas Shotgun Paddy had had a run. Also, we know that Emma Lavelle’s horse loves Warwick, his record at the track, in that Classic Chase, reads 133.

Not that Shotgun Paddy doesn’t go well at Newcastle, he finished second in the Eider Chase last year, but this may be a more level playing field. Knockanrawley is also proven at Newcastle, and he is almost twice Shotgun Paddy’s price.

The handicapper dropped Kim Bailey’s horse 3lb to a mark of 133 for his Classic Chase run, which was surprisingly lenient. There is every chance that he will improve for his last run, his first run in 14 months and, a nine-year-old who has run just eight times over fences, he has scope to progress again over these marathon trips.

Bailey’s horses continue to be in top form, he has had four more winners so far this week, and David Bass is a good rider who has ridden Knockanrawley in each of his last two races, in each of which he has run well.

RECOMMENDED

THREE MUSKETEERS,1 point win, 7/1 (generally)

KNOCKANRAWLEY, 1 point each-way, 12/1 (generally)