BRITISH Champions Day last year was run on ground that was soft (heavy in places). There were three winning favourites (Stradivarius, Roaring Lion and Cracksman) and only one of the six winners (Sands Of Mali, 28/1) was sent off at greater than 8/1.

The meeting was run on ground that was soft too in 2017 (officially, heavy down the hill into Swinley Bottom) and, again, three of the six races were won by the favourites (Order Of St George, Lord Glitters and Cracksman again) and, again, only one winner went off at greater than 8/1. None went off at greater than 10/1. It may be that today’s winners will not come from that far out of left field.

You still have to try to filch out the value mind you.

The soft ground horses were backed during the week as the rains fell and the headlines grew, Addeybb and The Revenant in particular. There is a chance that soft ground fever took the soft-ground horses’ odds too far. There is a chance that they will drift at least a little today.

Tarnawa handles soft ground well, but she is also talented and progressive, and she goes to the Fillies & Mares Stakes today with a real chance. Winner of her maiden at Leopardstown on her debut this season in April, Dermot Weld’s filly stayed on strongly to win the Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes at Naas in May, doing well to get the better of the classy older filly Who’s Steph, with Delphinia and Peach Tree behind in third and fourth, with the runner-up coming out next time and winning the Group 3 Munster Oaks.

Tarnawa was well-beaten next time in the Oaks, but you can allow her that. She didn’t travel well down the hill, and she didn’t appear to be happy on the camber in the home straight. It wasn’t her running.

She bounced back from that next time in the Group 3 Give Thanks Stakes at Cork. She moved up nicely on the outside to hit the front just inside the two-furlong marker, and she stayed on strongly to win well. She saw out the 12-furlong trip well in a race that was run at a strong pace and on soft ground.

Then last time, in the Group 2 Blandford Stakes at the Curragh back over 10 furlongs, the Aga Khan’s filly showed a fine turn of foot to hit the front on the run to the furlong marker, and she kept on well to win nicely.

She is going to have to step forward again if she is going to win today, she has 7lbs to find on Anapurna on official ratings, and she has 6lbs to find with Star Catcher. But she probably won her last two races with more in hand than the official winning margins, and she is a seriously progressive filly.

She won’t mind the soft ground, the fast pace that they should go will suit, and her hold-up style of racing is well suited to Ascot on soft ground. Also, the step back up from 10 furlongs last time to a mile and a half is probably a positive.

Dermot Weld has probably had her in mind for a while for this race, a race he won with Search For A Song’s half-sister Sapphire, and she could out-run her odds by a fair way.

Crisford’s horse

Century Dream could also out-run his odds in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. Simon Crisford’s horse ran a massive race to finish third in the race last year, doing well to keep on as well as he did to take third place, after racing up with the pace from flagfall.

Two horses raced prominently with him, Hey Gaman, who faded to finish 10th, and Laurens, who faded to finish eighth.

Century Dream travelled really well through his race just behind the two leaders, and he hit the front on the run to the two-furlong marker, which is far enough out on the straight mile on soft ground at Ascot when they haven’t gone slowly.

He was only caught by Roaring Lion at the half-furlong marker, and he kept on well from there to retain third place, beaten a total of just three-quarters of a length by the winner. It was a big run.

He was beaten in all three runs at Meydan in the spring, so you have to forgive him those runs. And he hasn’t run since the third of those three defeats, in the Dubai Turf in March. But all of that is factored into his odds, and he has run well fresh in the past.

Importantly, he goes well at Ascot and he goes well on soft ground at Ascot. He won a listed race too over the course and distance on soft ground in May last year. It is probable that his trainer has been targeting him at this race again for a while now, and he could go well at a decent price.

Recommended

Tarnawa 1 point win, 2.45 Ascot, 7/1 (generally)

Century Dream, 1 point win, 3.20 Ascot, 20/1(generally)