NEWBURY SATURDAY

12:45 LADBROKES JOHN FRANCOME NOVICES’ CHASE (GRADE 2) 2M 7F 86Y

Colin Tizzard has monopolised this contest in recent years, with Elegant Escape, Thistlecrack and Native River a high-class trio to have gone before Kilbricken Storm, and that might look tough to live up to. Unlike those to have gone before him, however, Kilbricken Storm was successful in the Albert Bartlett at the Cheltenham Festival (Native River and Elegant Escape unplaced, while Thistlecrack missed Cheltenham), and could be considered to be ahead of the curve in comparison to his illustrious stablemates. It’s not a simple task here by any means against some quality opposition, but the selection is much better than he could show on his chase debut at Ffos Las when in need of the experience and inclined to be deliberate at his fences. He was passed on the run-in by Cobo Lobo at the West Wales track, but showed great tenacity to regain the lead on the line, and is expected to show great improvement, for all he’ll have to.

13:20 SIR PETER O’SULLEVAN MEMORIAL HANDICAP CHASE 2M 6F 93Y

Minella On Line is not a horse to set your watch by, but the gelding is somewhat fragile, which explains his inconsistency to some degree, and he’s best caught fresh as a rule. His record over fences after a break of ten weeks or more reads 2211, and he might be worth chancing on his first start since an ambitious bid for the Topham Chase at Aintree in April, although he’s still not the safest jumper, and that needs to be taken on board. I’m inclined to throw a saver on him, but the main pick here is Kayf Adventure, who looks to have plenty in his favour. Philip Hobbs endured a wretched season by his standards in 2017/18, but is right back in the groove now, and his horses have paid to follow at Newbury in recent seasons. Kayf Adventure scored twice despite his stable’s poor form last term, and remains open to improvement over fences. He was a good second over shorter here in the spring, and may have gone closer but for losing a shoe. With rain forecast, he should find the ground ideal, and is expected to make a bold bid with the return to this sort of trip likely to suit.

14:25 LADBROKES INTERMEDIATE HURDLE (GERRY FEILDEN) (LISTED) 2M 69Y

He may have won on heavy ground, but the hard-pulling Global Citizen may well prove best on a sound surface given his free-going nature, and while he very much caught the eye for the in-form Ben Pauling at Ascot last month, I worry that he will leave himself vulnerable in the finish again, so am reluctantly passing him over. The vote in these conditions goes instead to Ballymoy, who is a tremendous prospect for the future, but is no slouch in the present either, and arrives here on the hunt for a five-timer after beating I’m A Game Changer at Chepstow last month.

On pedigree and run style, he will be even better over further, but Newbury makes serious demands of stamina when the ground is soft, and I think Nigel Twiston-Davies has made the right choice in coming here. He’s been raised 3lb for his reappearance win, but the runner-up has run well since and the form looks solid, so that reassessment looks very fair.

15:00 LADBROKES TROPHY CHASE (GRADE 3) 3M 1F 214Y

My ante-post interest here is on American, who found the ground totally unsuitable last year, and he has been aimed at this for some time (weather permitting), making him an attractive long-range option. His price is pretty much where it should be now, however, so I will refrain from topping up. The horse I consider by far the likeliest winner is Thomas Patrick who caught the eye when second to Elegant Escape in a graduation chase at Sandown last month, and both are treading a similar path to previous winners of this contest, with Elegant Escape third to Presenting Percy and Monalee in the RSA, and Thomas Patrick having won the same 3m1f handicap chase at Aintree which State Of Play won before his big-race triumph in 2006. Thomas Patrick doesn’t have the traditional grounding of a second-season chaser, but is a rapidly-improving youngster who has plenty more to offer.

My initial reaction on watching the Sandown contest was that the runner-up was the horse to take from the race, having jumped much better than the winner before idling after the last, and he looked like the race would bring him on considerably. He received 2lb from Elegant Escape at Sandown, which was slightly less than he would have in a handicap, and with the winner getting a 4lb penalty, Tom Lacey’s charge will be 5lb better off. That demonstrates what a fine chance he has on form, but I firmly believe there is even more improvement in his locker, and I’ve had a little bit on him at 66/1 for the Cheltenham Gold Cup in March.

NEWCASTLE SATURDAY:

13:35 GVA BUILDING NEWCASTLE’S FUTURE CHASE (NOVICES’ LIMITED HANDICAP) 2M 7F 91Y

Tom Lacey may have bigger fish to fry at Newbury, but as the great Arthur Stephenson used to say “little fish are sweet” and Lacey could be celebrating another winner here courtesy of the ex-pointer Polydora, who shaped with loads of promise on his chasing bow at Aintree in October, and looks more than capable of winning off his current mark on that evidence. Like Thomas Patrick, Polydora went with enthusiasm at Aintree before lack of peak condition told late on, and that looked the perfect introduction to the larger obstacles. Aintree My Dream is respected after taking on the likes of Finian’s Oscar on his sole chase start over a year ago, but Polydora is preferred given the benefit of a recent run.

14:05 BETVICTOR FIGHTING FIFTH HURDLE (GRADE 1) 2M 98Y

Whether the Fighting Fifth is a betting race is a moot point, but it is a fascinating race and one which will tell us a lot about Samcro, whose air of invincibility has been dented by two defeats, although excuses have been forthcoming. He needs to jump better if he’s to have any chance of winning a Champion Hurdle, and while plenty are happy to crab Buveur D’Air, it’s not his fault the division has failed to sizzle in recent seasons, and he can teach his younger rival plenty about hurdling technique. He also has a pretty underrated turn of foot, and he has all the tools to burst the Samcro bubble once and for all, assuming he is at his peak for this return to action, a caveat which prevents him being a confident selection. Summerville Boy can’t be dismissed, but if Samcro can be criticised for his technique, then the Supreme winner is on another level, his Cheltenham win coming after two ugly blunders at the final obstacles. He clearly has a big engine, but that won’t be enough if he doesn’t start to hurdle cleanly.

15:20 BETVICTOR REHEARSAL HANDICAP CHASE (LISTED) 2M 7F 91Y

There are question marks over many of the runners in the Rehearsal, and Big River has less to prove than most having done really well last season. He is something of a Kelso specialist, and the form of his defeat of Shantou Flyer there in February was boosted when the runner-up went so close in the Ultima at Cheltenham the following month. He couldn’t repeat that effort at Uttoxeter on his final outing, but still ran with great credit when second at Uttoxeter in the mud, and while the ground won’t be as testing at Newcastle, he’s run very well on a sounder surface, with three wins on good or dead ground. He’s won twice and been second on three starts after a lengthy break, and appears to be better handicapped than most of his rivals here.

RECOMMENDED

KAYF ADVENTURE 1:20 Newbury – 1pt win @ 8/1 (general)

BALLYMOY 2:25 Newbury – 1pt win @ 9/2 (Hills)

THOMAS PATRICK 3:00 Newbury – 2pts win @ 4/1 (general)

BIG RIVER 3:20 Newcastle – 2pts win @ 11/2 (Bet365)