Rory Delargy

AYR SATURDAY

1:45 SCOTTY BRAND HANDICAP CHASE (LISTED) 2M 110Y

A couple of these are engaged on Friday as well, which complicates matters for those who have to analyse the race in advance.

Vaniteux has outstanding claims based on last season’s form, when winning twice, including this race off a much higher mark.

The return to a sound surface is a big plus, as he looked all at sea in the soft ground conditions when trailing in the Grand Annual at Cheltenham last month. He had a wind operation prior to Cheltenham, and while no benefit was detected on the day, that can be attributed to conditions, and he can finally deliver on the handicapper’s generosity having been campaigned with the spring in mind.

David Pipe has had a poor season, but three winners from 20-odd runners in April, including one at Aintree last Saturday, show that the stable has turned a corner. That’s another reason to expect a revival from the classy Vaniteux.

2:20 DAWN HOMES NOVICES’ CHAMPIONSHIP HANDICAP CHASE 3M 20Y

Keeper Hill is a slightly risky proposition having fallen on his last two starts, but he’s not such a clumsy jumper as those figures imply, and would likely have won at Musselburgh on his penultimate outing but for departing, and that despite conceding weight at a trip short of his best.

He’s ideally suited by this sort of ground, hails from a stable in form, and as a Grade 2 winner over fences, has a class edge on his rivals assuming he’s back on his game. At the early prices (10/1 generally), it looks worth chancing that his confidence remains intact.

2:55 QTS SCOTTISH CHAMPION HURDLE (LIMITED HANDICAP) (GRADE 2) 2M

As always, the Scottish Champion Hurdle looks well contested, but it’s extremely hard to get away from the claims of Chesterfield who won this race in good style under Daniel Sansom a year ago, and has looked as good as ever on his last two starts, winning a jumpers bumper at Kempton before finishing fourth in conditions which stretched his stamina in the County Hurdle.

Back on his favoured good ground for the first time since landing this prize 12 months ago, his claims are crystal clear, even before considering the quirk of handicapping which allows him to compete off a lower mark now.

With Sanson’s claim reduced from 7lbs to 5lbs in the interim, he has effectively got exactly the same task as he had when winning last year. Seamus Mullins deserves praise for bringing him to the boil again at the right time, and he has a favourite’s chance.

Flying Tiger was behind the selection when sent off favourite for the County Hurdle, but probably failed to handle the relative slog, and he remains interesting off his current mark, with his runs in the Fighting Fifth and Kingwell Hurdle suggesting he’s got something in hand of the assessor granted a speed test.

He can finish weakly, but that is almost certainly more to do with stamina limitations than any lack of resolution, and he appears the biggest threat to Chesterfield, although I’d not entirely rule out Irish Roe, who is a hugely likeable mare, and much better than she could show on her latest start in a mudbath in Newbury for the Betfair Hurdle.

3:30 JORDAN ELECTRICS LTD FUTURE CHAMPION NOVICES’ CHASE (GRADE 2) 2M 4F 110Y

Mia’s Storm was pulled out of a race at Aintree last week due to the ground, and would have more chance here in that regard, but the trip is probably on the sharp side for Alan King’s mare, and this was clearly not her primary target.

Bigmartre should bounce back after finding the company too hot in the JLT Chase last time, where he also looked ill-at-ease on the undulations. He’s almost certainly best on a flattish track like this, and he has a chance to dominate from flag-fall here.

He’s readily preferred to Adrien Du Pont, and a bigger danger is likely to be Peter Fahey’s Peregrine Run, who doesn’t operate in the mud, and has sensibly been swerved from all the major festivals to date.

He will get his conditions, and will benefit most if Bigmartre goes too fast or is hassled for the lead.

4:05 CORAL SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL HANDICAP CHASE (GRADE 3) 3M 7F 176Y

It’s not easy picking between a number of interesting challengers for the Scottish National, and value will be the final arbiter.

Henri Parry Morgan won the West Wales National at Ffos Las in blinkers on his previous run, and while that came on heavy ground, he’s not a mudlark in the strict sense of the word, and split Native River and Blaklion in a Grade 1 at Aintree as a novice on similar ground to that forecast for this race.

He started favourite for the Bet365 Gold Cup off a mark of 149 after that effort, and it’s clear that he remains favourably handicapped off his revised mark (139) if refinding that form.

Things haven’t gone his way since, which has seen him tumble in the weights, but he could not have been more impressive at Ffos Las, and the headgear seems to have revived him. That win will also do his confidence the world of good, and generally available at 20/1, he makes plenty of appeal.

Doing Fine and Ballyoptic are feared most among the opposition, but are fairly well found in the market, unlike the selection.

NEWBURY SATURDAY

3:10 AL BASTI EQUIWORLD SUPPORTING GREATWOOD GREENHAM STAKES (GROUP 3) 7F

He’ll be a short price, but conditions at Newbury are ideal, and last year’s Vintage Stakes winner Expert Eye ought to win this without much fuss if he can put his Dewhurst disappointment behind him.

That effort was too bad to be true, and he was beaten at an early stage, so it makes more sense to concentrate on his defeat of the likes of Mildenberger and Seahenge at Goodwood.

With Mildenberger running out a comfortable winner of the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket during the week, the value of the Vintage Stakes effort was again underlined, and while he’s not one to back for the Guineas given his previous experience at the track, seven furlongs with cut underfoot is clearly ideal for Sir Michael Stoute’s colt. He should repair the damage to his reputation by winning with authority.

3:45 ELITE RACING CLUB SUPPORTING GREATWOOD SPRING CUP HANDICAP 1M

Plenty to consider, but Gilgamesh made a striking impression when winning nonchalantly at Redcar last May, and was very unlucky in the run when reappearing from a break at Chelmsford later in the year. This is a big step up in class from his last win, but he looked open to plenty of improvement at the Cleveland venue, and yet is just 5lb higher now.

With many of his admittedly talented rivals much more exposed, Gilgamesh rather leaps off the page, and he will go close with the longer trip almost certain to bring about further improvement.

RECOMMENDED

CHESTERFIELD 2.55 Ayr – 1pt e/w @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

HENRI PARRY MORGAN 4.05 Ayr – 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

GILGAMESH 3.45 Newbury – 1pt win @ 12/1 (generally)