AYR SATURDAY
2.00 WILLIAM HILL SUPPORTING THE FIGHT AGAINST PARKINSON’S HANDICAP 1M
Borderforce is a very interesting runner for Karl Burke, having won on heavy ground at ParisLonchamp in the spring for Francis-Henri Graffard. He took a little while to acclimatise for his new yard, but was quite impressive when winning at Ripon last time from course specialist Gurkha Friend. He almost gets the vote, but that instead goes to the fragile Chatez, who is seen so rarely that Alan King cannot entertain the prospect of getting a run into him to get him ready for something else; each outing must be a target in itself, and the 2015 Spring Mile winner showed he retained all his old ability when beating all bar Fire Brigade at Leicester after a massive lay-off last autumn.
It’s somewhat ironic that he meets Fire Brigade on exactly the same terms (both 1lb higher), given the convergent paths they have taken since. Chatez can’t really be called well-handicapped given he’s on a career high mark and has raced just once on the flat since the spring of 2015, but races on heavy ground tend not to be about which horse is best handicapped, but rather more about relative class and an ability to handle conditions.
Chatez has shown all his best form at around a mile in the mud, and is worth chancing at 14/1 or bigger on that basis.
2.40 WILLIAM HILL AYR SILVER CUP HANDICAP 6F
Once again, working out which of these might be a few pounds ahead of the handicapper is much less important than finding which among the big field will be drawn in the right place and cope with the combination of a strong pace and very testing ground. A convergence of such factors is far from the norm, and a knowledge of the individual horses is more important than a grasp of current form as a rule. Narrowing the field to those known to relish the ground and the nature of big field handicaps is a help, and it’s also beneficial to be aware of which horses stay a little further, as stamina is bound to be tested in the conditions.
My ham-fisted profiling has led me to the claims of Shared Equity, who has an excellent record when it comes to making the frame on soft/heavy ground, has placed form at the track and is effective between six and seven furlongs. He also shows his best form in big fields, and while there are less exposed runners, and one or two who are better treated on recent efforts, there are few who look as robust all round as Jedd O’Keeffe’s seven-year-old. Al Qahwa is another to have caught my eye having run well at the Curragh on Sunday.
3.50 WILLIAM HILL AYR GOLD CUP (HERITAGE HANDICAP) 6F
It will be intriguing to see how Son Of Rest goes in the market here, as he was swiftly cut from very big odds to become favourite after his excellent second in the Flying Five at the Curragh. We can talk until we’re blue in the face about what a poor excuse for a Group 1 that race was, but it would have made a perfectly passable contest a run down the ladder, and Son Of Rest’s effort in pushing Havana Grey certainly makes him look ahead of his mark.
That effort is all the more meritorious when you consider that Fozzy Stack’s charge would be much better off granted a longer trip and much softer ground than he got at the Curragh.
Well, he’ll certainly get his ground at Ayr, and given how often we all make excuses to back well handicapped horses despite misgivings about trip and/or ground, it is something of a godsend to have such a horse whose chances are actually enhanced by the prevailing conditions. I’m not sure how many people availed themselves of the fancy prices for this fella before bookmakers realised the game had changed, but this has been a case of a price contracting because of a change of view, rather than the weight of liabilities.
The Stack runner absolutely must be backed given all he has in his favour, but I cannot desert my original choice for this contest, and will also be having an interest in the tough-as-teak Ice Age who will be ridden by Scott McCullagh. Scott, son of weigh-room veteran Niall, rode just one winner in his native country before joining the powerful Mick Channon team, where he has quickly flourished, adding a further 11 wins, including one on the final day of Glorious Goodwood. The 19-year-old has a great chance to land one of the season’s premier handicaps aboard Eve Johnson Houghton’s Frozen Power gelding, who is both tough and consistent in similar races, and has made the frame on five of his six lifetime starts on testing ground, the exception being when finishing fourth when poorly drawn. Two of those runs have resulted in handicap wins in fields of 15 or more, with the latter being the Bold Lad Handicap at the Curragh a year ago. He could only finish seventh in the same contest this year, but was drawn on the wrong side, and ended up beaten less than two lengths.
That form is good enough to take a hand in the finish, and McCullagh’s valuable claim could be the factor which swings the race in his favour.
NEWBURY SATURDAY
1.45 DUBAI DUTY FREE HANDICAP 1M 2F
We’ve had a couple of false starts with Buzz in this column before, with Hughie Morrison’s charge missing both the John Smith’s Cup and the newly-inaugurated JLT Cup at this track in consecutive weeks in July. He has since shown that he doesn’t stay the Ebor trip when beaten after travelling best at Nottingham, and the drop to 10 furlongs on easy ground should be ideal. I don’t subscribe to the theory that he is a better horse on polytrack, and a close look at his form has shown a generally progressive trend regardless of conditions.
RECOMMENDED
BUZZ 1.45 Newbury – 1pt win @ 16/1 (general)
CHATEZ 2.00 Ayr – 1pt win @ 14/1 (Paddy Power, Boyles)
SHARED EQUITY 2.40 Ayr – 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (SkyBet, Bet365)
SON OF REST 3.50 Ayr – 2pts win @ 11/2 (general)
ICE AGE 3.50 Ayr – 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair SB)