THE ground at Newbury this afternoon is going to be much better than Born Survivor has encountered for a while, and that could allow Dan Skelton’s horse out-run his odds in the BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup.
The King’s Theatre gelding was well beaten in his two runs during the depths of winter, at Cheltenham and at Sandown, but both of those runs were on soft ground, and he was badly hampered by a faller early on in the Cheltenham race.
He ran better than the bare form suggests in a two-mile handicap chase at Cheltenham’s November meeting on his previous run. He travelled well through his race that day, and he moved up just behind the leaders on the run to the third last fence, where he made a significant mistake.
He dropped back to sixth place after that, his winning chance gone, but he stayed on well from there to finish fourth behind Magic Saint. He reportedly bled from the nose that day too.
He is 10 now, he is not obviously progressive, but the handicapper has given him a chance. He raced off a mark of 147 at Cheltenham in November, but he has come down now to a mark of 138. That is 14lb lower than his peak.
The move to better ground today is a significant positive, and the step up to two and a half miles should also be in his favour. His best runs have been over two and a half miles on good or good to soft ground, and that is what he will have today.
It is probable that Dan Skelton has had this race in mind for Born Survivor for a little while. He has never run over fences at Newbury, but he has run twice there over hurdles, and he has run well on both occasions, and his best form is on flat tracks.
Harry Skelton goes to Kelso, but Bridget Andrews is a good rider, and she rode Born Survivor to victory at Southwell a couple of years ago.
Grand Sancy is a worthy favourite, and The Big Bite could out-run his odds but, at current prices, it looks like Born Survivor is the value of the race.
You can understand why The Shunter is favourite for the Bet365 Morebattle Hurdle at Kelso. Winner of the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in November, Emmet Mullins’ horse ran a big race last time to finish third in the big Matheson Handicap Chase at Leopardstown’s Dublin Racing Festival.
But he is short, and it may be that he ideally requires a greater test of stamina than that provided by a two-mile handicap hurdle at Kelso on good to soft ground.
It could be a good day for the Skeltons, because Faivoir could go close. Dan Skelton’s horse did well to get up and beat Minella Drama in a two-mile handicap hurdle at Haydock last time.
It looked like he was travelling better than the leader at the second last flight, but he needed all of Bridget Andrews’ cajoling to get up and catch Donald McCain’s horse in the final strides.
The handicapper raised him by 12lb for that win, but the first two finished well clear, and the time was good, only marginally slower than the time that Navajo Pass clocked in beating Buveur D’Air in the Champion Hurdle Trial over the same course and distance later on the day.
Also, Minella Drama enhanced the form of that race when he won a listed novices’ hurdle at Market Rasen next time. He is now rated 9lb higher than he was at Haydock.
Faivoir obviously goes well on soft ground, but he also has good form on better ground. Winner of his only point-to-point, two of his three bumpers and three of his five races over hurdles, he is a progressive young hurdler, and he could take another step forward today.
Recommended
Born Survivor, 1.50 Newbury, 14/1 (generally) 1 point win
Faivoir, 3.15 Kelso, 5/1 (generally)
1 point win