THE longer you spend looking at the field for this afternoon’s Hennessy Gold Cup at Newbury, the more chances you can see, the more cases you can make. It’s the nature of these things, races on which there has been a long-term ante post market.
We have been looking at possible Hennessy permutations for weeks now, some with Coneygree in, some with Coneygree out. It’s like getting a hint for a subject for a debating competition two weeks before the debate and constructing potential arguments around it. Now we have the motion, now it’s time see it all played out.
There has been debate all week about Coneygree’s absence, about whether or not it has made Saphir Du Rheu’s task easier or more difficult. On the one hand, Paul Nicholls’ horse doesn’t have to beat the Gold Cup winner. On the other, he has to carry top weight of 11st 12lb and he has to give more weight to everything from Fingal Bay down to the bottom of the racecard than he would have to give if Coneygree had stayed in. Like, he now has to give 24lb to bottom weight Theatre Guide instead of 17lb.
The fact that his odds – the quintessential probability barometer– remained unchanged at 7/2 tells you that the market thinks that his chance has neither increased nor decreased with Coneygree’s defection but, be honest, you’re always happier if you don’t have to beat the Gold Cup winner.
If you are thinking of backing Saphir Du Rheu for this season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup, probably best to do so before today’s race. If he wins today under top weight, people will talk about Denman and he will probably be up there challenging Vautour and Coneygree for the Gold Cup favourite’s armband. That said, 7/2 about him winning today is probably no better than fair.
WHAT TO LOOK FOR
However, history tells us that the percentage call in the Hennessy is to look for a second-season progressive chaser who has the potential to be well ahead of the handicapper, and If In Doubt fits that bill perfectly. The 25/1s and 20/1s are gone, but 8/1 about him this morning still looks more than fair.
Always highly regarded, and second behind Saphir Du Rheu in the Lanzarote Hurdle in 2014, it took Philip Hobbs’ horse a little while to get his eye in over fences last season. Even when he won the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster last January off a mark of 139, his jumping was far from foot-perfect. Given that, it was remarkable that he was able to win a competitive handicap like that as easily as he did.
The handicapper gave him 10lb for that, but he could have given him more. It is difficult to think that he wouldn’t have still won fairly easily with 10lb more on his back.
Pitched into the RSA Chase after that, again his jumping wasn’t perfect at Cheltenham, but it wasn’t bad, and he stayed on well up the home straight to take fifth place behind Don Poli, beaten just a head and a half-length for third.
He starts this season on a mark of 149, a mark that he has the potential to out-perform by a fair way this season. He is only seven and he has raced just six times over fences. Also, it is in his favour that he has not had a run this term yet, it means that the handicapper has not had a chance to re-assess him after his novice season. If he can jump adequately today, and reports in that regard are positive, then he could run a massive race.
The fact that the weights have gone up by 9lb means that Barry Geraghty can now take the ride, and that is a big positive. Geraghty has won two of the last three renewals of the Hennessy, he is a big asset in these top staying handicap chases.
Wicklow Brave has been all the rage for the Fighting Fifth Hurdle at Newcastle since he was supplemented to the race – and since his stable companion Arctic Fire has been re-routed to tomorrow’s Hatton’s Grace Hurdle at Fairyhouse – and it is easy to see why. Willie Mullins’ horse ran out an easy winner of the County Hurdle at Cheltenham last March and – after a hugely successful flat campaign, during which he finished second in the Ebor and third in the Irish Leger and the British Long Distance Cup – he got to within two lengths of his stable companions Nichols Canyon and Faugheen in the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown two weeks ago.
He sets a high standard, but Top Notch probably shouldn’t be a 6/1 shot against him. Nicky Henderson’s horse was one of last season’s top juvenile hurdlers among a top crop of juvenile hurdlers. He does have to turn around last Saturday’s Haydock form with Irving, but that was his first run since he finished second in a red hot Triumph Hurdle in March, and he had to make a lot of his own running. He was a good target for Irving’s turn of foot.
It might be a little different today. He should have come on for that run, the easier ground today is a positive and the long pull from the second last flight to the winning line at Newcastle will suit him. Nicky Henderson likes this race, he won it with My Tent Or Yours two years ago and he won it with Punjabi in 2008, and it is interesting that he is happy to allow Top Notch take on Irving again.
RECOMMENDED
IF IN DOUBT, 8/1 (generally) 1 point each-way
TOP NOTCH, 6/1 (generally) 1 point win
Donn’s two recommended bets last Saturday both collected, with Cue Card (advised at 3/1) winning the Betfair Chase and Definitly Red (advised each-way at 7/1) finishing second in the Fixed Brush Hurdle.