Donn McClean

YOU would have thought that the postponement of the Welsh Grand National by two weeks would have impacted negatively on this afternoon’s Betfred Classic Chase at Warwick.

They are both, after all, similarly high-class staying handicap chases that should attract the same type of horse. Interestingly, the first and third in last year’s Classic Chase, Hawkes Point and Shotgun Paddy, both pulled up in the Welsh National on their previous run.

However, the postponement of the Chepstow race does not appear to have negatively impacted this afternoon’s race. Welsh National faller Black Thunder does not take his chance, but Red Devil Lads is set to line up today, seven days after unseating his rider at the eighth fence in the Welsh National.

As well as that, Midnight Prayer, who was an intended runner in the Welsh National in its original incarnation on December 27th, was scratched from last week’s race because he was coughing, but Alan King reports him to be in good form again now and ready to go. Today’s race may actually be a stronger race for the postponement of the Welsh National.

Even so, Rigadin De Beauchene looks over-priced at 10/1. Venetia Williams’ horse won this race in 2013, when he stayed on really well to get the better of Godsmejudge and Pete The Feat.

He was pulled up in the race last year, but he came into the race in poor form then, and the fact that he won the 2013 renewal proved that he can handle this unusual track, with its five fences down the side of the course. And we know that he stays the trip and relishes the ground.

Out of sorts last season, he dropped to a handicap rating of 129 for the start of this term, but he has shaped much more encouragingly this season.

On his penultimate run at Chepstow, he was so far clear at the end of the back straight that he traded at odds-on in-running, but he was probably ridden too aggressively that day, and he was caught by the time he reached the fourth last fence. Even so, he kept on well over the last three fences to go down by just a total of eight lengths behind Tour Des Champs.

Two weeks later, he went and won a three and a half mile chase at Haydock off the same mark of 127, staying on well to get the better of Harry The Viking, the pair of them clear.

The handicapper raised him 6lb for that, but that was not harsh. It brings him up to a mark of 133, which is a stone below his peak. It is unrealistic to expect that he is as good now as an 11-year-old he was as a nine-year-old, but he may not be that far below where he was then, and he is rated 14lb lower. That gives him a lot of leeway. That Haydock run was his best run since he beat Emperor’s Choice by 10 lengths in the Grand National Trial at Haydock in February 2014.

Also, this can be an older horse’s race. Three of the eight renewals in the last 10 years have been won by horses aged 10 or 11.

Old friend Red Devil Lads is a danger, and De Kerry Man could out-run his odds if he stays this extreme trip, but Rigadin De Beauchene is more solid and he represents better value at a similar price.

LEAMINGTON

Born Survivor is a ready-made favourite for the Leamington Novices’ Hurdle, a highly-regarded expensive young hurdler who was impressive in winning his only race over hurdles to date, and who represents Dan Skelton, who won this race last year with the highly-talented Three Musketeers. However, he probably shouldn’t be as far in front of the Willie Mullins pair, Open Eagle and Thomas Hobson, as he is in the market.

Of the Mullins pair, Thomas Hobson may just shade it. He wasn’t rated as highly as Open Eagle on the flat, but he was still a classy handicapper for John Gosden, he won a good handicap at Doncaster on his final run on the flat in October 2013 off a mark of 97. Also, he raced just eight times on the flat, he could have gone higher if he had continued to race on the level.

He hasn’t looked like a natural over hurdles, he fell at the last on his debut at Listowel in June and he didn’t jump well at Galway in July, but he still managed to beat Stuccodor that day by four lengths, keeping on strongly up the hill.

His jumping was better at Navan in November, when he finished second to Three Stars in a race that was run at an unsuitably slow pace, and it was better again at Punchestown last month, when he made all to beat Jetstream Jack by three lengths. He has made all the running in the two hurdle races that he has won, and similarly aggressive tactics can pay dividends at Warwick, even on heavy ground.

He should continue to progress as his jumping improves, and he is a classy horse who could have a fair bit more improvement in him as a hurdler.

RECOMMENDED

RIGADIN DE BEAUCHENE, 10/1 (generally) 1 point win

THOMAS HOBSON, 4/1 (generally) 1 point win