CYRNAME or Clan Des Obeaux? It’s not quite Kauto or Denman territory, but, you know, same trainer and all, there are parallels. Last year, the market said Cyrname, but the result said Clan.

Things are a little different this year. Last year, Cyrname came into the King George on the back of a hard race against Altior at Ascot, just 33 days earlier.

This year, he was not eyeballs-out to win the Charlie Hall Chase, and he has had a 56-day break since.

Last year, Clan Des Obeaux prepped for the King George with a nice run at Down Royal 54 days beforehand. This year, he had a hard race in the Betfair Chase at Haydock, on heavy ground and chasing home the relentless Bristol De Mai, and that was just 35 days ago.

Horseshoes, feet, others.

That said, three miles flat out around Kempton is a specialist’s discipline. It is not a coincidence that, in the last 15 years, there have been five repeat winners and just three one-time winners of the King George. And go back further, Sea More Business and The Fellow and Desert Orchid and Wayward Lad and Silver Buck.

Go back to Captain Christy and Pendil if you want. Compare that to the Gold Cup, a race in which only Best Mate and Kauto Star and now Al Boum Photo have prevailed more than one since L’Escargot.

Clan Des Obeaux excels over three miles at Kempton. If the race was over two miles and five furlongs at Ascot, you would have Cyrname as favourite all right. But, as things stand, you can easily argue that Clan Des Obeaux should be clear favourite.

Real value

That said, the value of the race could be the market leaders’ now stable companion Real Steel.

The King George was a possible target for Real Steel last year when he was with Willie Mullins, but a fourth-place finish in the John Durkan Chase seemed to scupper any tentative plans and, instead, he went to Thurles and beat his stable companion Footpad – who did run in the King George, finishing third – by 14 lengths.

Real Steel ran a big race on his final run last season too in the Gold Cup. Held up in rear off a moderate gallop, he made good progress down the hill, and he travelled well into the home straight before his run flattened out.

He had done a lot of running to get to that point, and his stamina was probably starting to ebb anyway. Three miles at Kempton should suit him better.

He has to put a disappointing run on his seasonal debut at Ascot behind him, but he was very weak in the market that day, and trainer Paul Nicholls said quite quickly afterwards that the King George was still very definitely the plan.

He is probably best going right-handed, and three miles exactly at a flat track, going right-handed, could be close to optimum. It will be a fair task, trying to get close to his stable companions, but his chance has probably been under-rated by the market.

Welsh National

It is correct that Secret Reprieve is clear favourite for the Coral Welsh National tomorrow. Evan Williams’ horse was impressive in winning the Welsh National Trial last time, a performance for which the handicapper raised him, quite legitimately, by 12lb. But he gets to compete under just a 4lb penalty, so he is 8lb well-in.

He goes well at the track, and he goes well on heavy ground, and he is a progressive six-year-old from whom there could be more to come. The only negative is the price.

The Two Amigos has 12 lengths to find with the favourite on their running in the Welsh National Trial last time, but he ran well for a long way. Prominent from early, he gave best on the run to the second last fence, but he still kept on well for the runner-up spot.

Nicky Martin’s horse ran well in the race last year, when he led and jumped well until he weakened from the third last fence. So he has that course form, which is crucial in a Welsh National, according to history. He is a year older now, a year stronger, and he gets to compete off last year’s mark of 142.

He is 4lb better with Secret Reprieve competed to their Welsh National Trial run, and the step up to this marathon trip, a trip over which the favourite has never competed, could bring them closer.

Recommended

Real Steel, 3.00 Kempton St Stephen’s Day, 16/1 (generally), 1 point win,

The Two Amigos, 2.50 Chepstow Sunday, 12/1 (generally), 1 point each-way