14:55 Bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) 7f
The Superlative is an uneven contest on paper, the favourite King’s Command hard to weigh up having won a novice over six furlongs here in which he led at a modest pace and won in a blanket finish. He’s obviously better than the bare form, but the bare form isn’t much, so there’s no appeal about his current odds, accepting that he falls into the “could be anything” category.
That can be said for several others with identical profiles, however, and they are double-figure prices. Among those is Shared Belief, who won his maiden at Sandown despite plenty going wrong. He’s definitely a fair bit better than the bare result having stumbled at the start and then got stopped in his run over two furlongs out.
He did well in the circumstances to win, and looks worth the jump in class. Stamina will certainly not be an issue and while he has different conditions to deal with, he looks very promising and too big in the betting.
15:30 Bet365 Bunbury Cup
(Heritage Handicap) 7f
Roger Fell and Middleham Park Racing provided the winner of this last year with Burnt Sugar, and can do so again with Admiralty, who has improved for the switch from Johnny Murtagh, and shaped really well when third to Blackheath and Graphite Storm at Leicester a week ago.
He tended to over-race a bit in the first half of that contest, and the pair who beat him came from off the pace, but he will find it easier getting cover here, and still looks on a very workable mark having won at Thirsk in May off just 4lbs lower (Lake Volta and Three Saints Bay behind and held). Two subsequent defeats have come on softer ground, and I believe that a big-field handicap on fast ground at this trip is what he needs.
Old favourites Ripp Orf and Spanish City are respected, with the former a possible value angle despite David Elsworth’s stuttering season. The latter was my pick for the Wokingham, but was freely available at 25/1 and bigger for that, so it sticks in the craw that he should be favourite for this, and I can’t back him at such odds.
16:40 Darley July Cup Stakes (Group 1) 6f
This is a genuinely intriguing race with a number of fresh faces in a division that, Blue Point aside, has become decidedly beige in the last couple of years. That may well be a cue for Limato to turn back the clock having struck for the veterans in the Criterion Stakes here last month, but I prefer the younger generation. While Advertise is the one the crowds want, I can’t help but feel there is an emerging story in Pretty Pollyanna as a sprinter.
Michael Bell’s filly was a runaway winner of the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes here a year ago and proved herself a proper Group 1 filly by winning the Prix Morny. She was not seen to best effect in the Cheveley Park Stakes behind Fairyland, her rider restraining her after an alert when it was clear there was lots of competition for the lead, and she seemed knocked out of her rhythm by the change of tactics.
Since then she has simply not stayed a mile, and the surprise is that she has been asked to confirm that notion twice more after the Fillies’ Mile. The final nail in the notion of her as a miler came in the Coronation Stakes, and she could well prove a different proposition given her head back at six furlongs, as many have before, including last year’s winner U S Navy Flag, who had a very similar profile.
14:40 John Smith’s Silver Cup Stakes (Group 3) 1m 5f 188y
Raheen House already has one almost unique claim to fame, being one of only two horses to have beaten the mighty Enable, and he can gain further glory as he attempts to reverse last month’s course-and-distance running with Gold Mount (previously Primitivo of this parish before a change of direction in Hong Kong).
On paper there is no reason why he should overturn that form as he meets his conqueror on the same terms for a 2¼-length beating, but the result of that race was in doubt for much of the journey. I feel that the winner was not only flattered by the margin having sat well off a crazy pace, but that the runner-up appeared to get tired on his first start for William Haggas, his first start since October, and his first start since being gelded. He looks likely to improve relative to the horse who beat him, and can take his revenge.
15:50 John Smith’s Diamond Jubilee Cup Handicap 1m 2f 56y
Stylehunter headed my shortlist for this after his effort in the Royal Hunt Cup, but that has been missed by no-one, and the powerful gelding has seen his odds tumble. There’s no great upside to backing favourites in 20-runner handicaps where they are almost always a hostage to fortune in terms of tactics and conditions, and I’m backing away from my original choice.
The consensus of opinion is that Hunt Cup winner Afaak cannot win from the widest draw, but that is not borne out by historical record, and the gelding should have no problem taking a prominent pitch in a race lacking in front-runners.
There is a fair chance he will drift beyond his current price and given he’s handicapped to finish alongside Stylehunter on Ascot form, he makes rather more appeal with their prices diverging.
Admiralty 15:30 Newmarket – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Coral)
Pretty Pollyanna 16:40 Newmarket – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (general)
Raheen House 14:40 York – 1pt win @ 11/4 (general)