Kempton Saturday

1:30 Unibet Download The App Handicap Chase 2m 4f 110y

There is little doubt that the initial mark handed to Sammy Bill was very lenient and he’s won two from two over fences in handicaps, looking dominant each time. He may be up to landing the hat-trick, but the handicapper can’t be denied forever, and an 11lb rise for beating a couple of badly treated rivals at Aintree last month does ask much sterner questions of him, and the 6/4 quoted is not tempting.

Unlike Sammy Bill, Mr Medic comes here out of form, but he is potentially well-handicapped after a couple of runs on ground too soft for him. In truth, Robert Walford’s gelding wants a sound surface, and even good to soft is on the slow side. He’s now back to the mark off which he won on last season’s return at Ascot on good ground, and I’ve no doubt he retains his ability despite discouraging form figures.

He’s 9lbs lower than when sixth in the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup where he travelled well but saw his chance evaporate with a bad blunder, a fate which also befell him in the Festival Plate at Cheltenham in March.

Soft and heavy ground on his last two starts have been all against him, and I’m banking on the Kempton Chase course riding a little quicker than advertised. It tends not to get so deep on the chase course compared to the hurdles here, and he has a better chance than the market indicates unless conditions worsen.

2:05 Unibet Silviniaco Conti Chase (Grade 2) 2m 4f 110y

Three of these met in the Peterborough Chase at Huntingdon last time, and while Top Notch finished in front of 100/1 shot Kauto Riko with Born Survivor a further six and a half lengths back in fourth, the runner-up is now 2lbs better off for a beating of three-parts of a length, and is taken to turn the tables given that was his first run of the season.

There is some risk in backing a horse like Kauto Riko here as that effort at a big price was a clear career best, whereas Top Notch has run to at least the level of his Peterborough win on half a dozen occasions since going chasing. From that it’s clear that the latter is a better bet to repeat the form, but try as I might, I can find no hint of a fluke about Kauto Riko’s effort, and a look back at his final run in 2018/19 sees him finishing well from a poor position in the Festival Plate at Cheltenham.

He’s not had a clear run at things as yet, and should benefit from the pipe-opener at Huntingdon, and he is likely to give Top Notch a proper scare with a repeat of his latest run.

2:40 Unibet Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (Listed) 2m 5f

No need to look too far through the form book for the Lanzarote, with race favourite Notre Pari sticking out like a sore thumb. He caught my eye twice in his qualifying runs, looking much better than the bare form both times, and proved the point when winning well on his handicap debut at Aintree last month, despite the orientation of the track not looking to suit him.

He jumped a little to his right at times at Aintree, and I think this right-handed track will suit him better. He’s open to stacks of improvement still, and looks the ideal type for this contest, which is usually won by a progressive type.

Warwick Saturday

1:50 McCoy Contractors Hampton Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) 3m

I’m not going to have a bet here, but I’m intrigued to see what Hold The Note can do. He was a selection in this column on St Stephen’s Day when he was badly hampered by the fall of Roll Again in a novices’ handicap chase at Kempton that connections like to target, and I’d be itching to back him off a handicap mark of 133 based on how he was travelling there, but the decision to run him instead in a Grade 2 event, and over a trip almost half a mile further than he’s raced before, has me scratching my head.

He looks ideal for the Close Brothers Handicap Chase on the Tuesday of Cheltenham, but is not an obvious three-miler on pedigree or previous performance, while he would be getting weight from all but one of these in a handicap. I’m not sure what I’m hoping for in the scenario, but I feel the horse must be kept onside, even if this task makes him watching-brief material.

3:00 McCoy Contractors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 5f 54y

Le Breuil would be a confident choice here had Ben Pauling’s stable been in better form, and although he had two winners in a couple of days over Christmas, the expected revival after his team had suffered a mineral imbalance in the feed has yet to gather pace, and a few of the more recent runners have disappointed.

That tempers confidence somewhat, but it’s encouraging that one of the races won by a Pauling horse in recent weeks was a Grade 2 event, and in my experience trainers in such scenarios tend to lend most of their attention to the higher-profile horses in their care, and cold-trainer status is more likely to be shed in pattern company than it is at the bottom end of the scale, assuming the horses are placed according to ability.

So I’m reducing stakes but not backing off this bet entirely, and the way Le Breuil shaped in the Becher Chase was most encouraging, as he jumped and travelled like the best horse at the weights only to weaken late as if he was short of fitness, which I’m sure he was as this was a time when the runners from his stable were hit hardest by a substandard batch of hay which saw them run as if sickening for something.

If he can build on that, he is capable of winning good races off his current mark, and his win in the National Hunt Chase was worthy of greater credit than it received due to the adverse publicity the race received.

3:35 Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Qualifier) 3m 1f

The front pair in the market are both improving sorts and very interesting in a race like this, with Tedham just the pick in a race which Jonjo O’Neill has won twice in recent years, as well as saddling Holywell to be second before that classy sort won the Pertemps Final itself.

That said, I’m a little confused to see Its All Guesswork at 12/1, as he shaped extremely well under a negative ride in a qualifier at Punchestown last February, but didn’t go up enough in the weights to make the cut.

In the end, Its All Guesswork went to Cheltenham, but he finished lame in the Kim Muir and has not been seen since. Given Philip Reynolds likes to aim one at the Pertemps, which he’s won with Presenting Percy and Mall Dini, there can be little doubt that Gordon Elliott will want to be sure he’s both qualified and high enough in the weights to get a run, so I don’t see a never-nearer ride as a likelihood, and victory here will do the job nicely for connections.

Recommended:

Notre Pari 2:40 Kempton – 2pts win @ 3/1 (Bet365)

Le Breuil 3:00 Warwick – 1pt e/w @ 15/2 (Hills, Unibet - 4 places)

Its All Guesswork 3:35 Warwick - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (general)