Donn McClean
THIS afternoon’s Betfair Chase is not the race that we thought it was going to be a little while ago.
Six weeks ago it looked like it was going to be the target for both Might Bite and Sizing John, the first step on the road to the £1 million Triple Crown, a clash between two of the most exciting staying chasers in training. Alas, we have lost both, which looks like carelessness, according to Lady Bracknell.
Might Bite side-stepped the race, went to Sandown for a graduation chase two weeks ago instead. Then during the week, Jessica Harrington said that Sizing John would not be making the trip. The ground was just going to be too heavy for a horse who has always been at his best on goodish ground. It is a good decision, taken in the best interests of the horse, and not trumped by the prospect of a million pounds.
We still have Bristol De Mai though, and Cue Card, the bill-toppers. You can understand why Bristol De Mai is favourite. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse was good at Wetherby in the Charlie Hall Chase, he settled into a nice rhythm, he jumped well and, while he only got home by a half a length in the end from his stable companion Blaklion, he travelled like the most likely winner from a long way out. He may have had more in hand than the bare winning margin.
Allied to that is the fact that he is back on heavy ground, softer than it was at Wetherby, which is a positive, and he is back at Haydock, scene of his Peter Marsh Chase win last January, probably the most impressive performance of his career to date.
It is impossible to know how Cue Card would have fared against Bristol De Mai - who is just over half his age – had he not come down at the last fence on the far side at Wetherby. You can’t go writing off Colin Tizzard’s stalwart yet, despite the fact that he is almost 12 years old.
And Cue Card has an affinity with Haydock too. He has raced there four times, in this race on each occasion, on soft or heavy ground on each occasion, and his record reads 1411. He has won three of the last four renewals of the Betfair Chase.
It is a fascinating class, but Outlander may have been under-rated by the market against the top two. The Gigginstown House horse has never raced at Haydock, so we don’t know how he will go there, but he is a top-class staying chaser, a Lexus Chase winner, a JNwine.com Champion Chase winner, and we know that he goes well on soft ground.
Outlander was disappointing in the Cheltenham and Punchestown Gold Cups last season after his Lexus Chase win, and he ran flat on his return this season at Punchestown, but he bounced back to form last time at Down Royal, when he stayed on well to beat Road To Respect in the Grade 1 JNwine.com Champion Chase.
An operation for kissing spines during the summer may have been a part of it, and the fitting of cheekpieces for the first time at Down Royal may have been another part of it, but he looked like the Outlander of old last time. Remember, he was a classy hurdler, and he won the Grade 1 Flogas Chase as a novice chaser.
The Gordon Elliott-trained gelding is rated 2lb inferior to Cue Card, but he is rated 6lb superior to Bristol De Mai on official ratings, and he meets him on level terms today.
The Gordon Elliott horses continue to be in top form, and, with Jack Kennedy an obvious positive, Outlander probably should not be as far behind the big two in the market as he is.
TOP FOR ASCOT
And Top Gamble probably shouldn’t be as far behind Top Notch and Smad Place as he is in the market for the Christy 1965 Chase at Ascot.
Winner of the Game Spirit Chase and the Norman’s Grove Chase in the spring of 2016, Kerry Lee’s horse did not win at all last season, but he put up some fine performances in defeat.
He finished a close-up third behind Shantou Flyer and Village Vic in a warm handicap chase run over two miles and five furlongs on soft ground at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day.
He raced off a mark of 159 that day, and he travelled like a likely winner to the home turn, but the combination of soft ground and the extended two and a half miles probably stretched his stamina beyond its limit.
By contrast, the Clarence House Chase and of the Champion Chase, both run over two miles, were probably sharper than ideal, yet he still ran two big races in finishing relatively close up in third place on each occasion, beaten eight and six and a half lengths respectively, behind Un De Sceaux and Uxizandre in the former and behind Special Tiara and Fox Norton in the latter. That is high-class two-mile form.
He is back up to two miles and five furlongs today and, on good to soft ground, that could be close to optimum. He has been beaten on his seasonal debut in each of the last two seasons, but he was impressive in winning on his debut in 2014, so we know that he can go well fresh. He receives weight from all his rivals and, the second highest-rated horse in the race behind Smad Place, from whom he receives 6lb, he could out-run odds of 7/1 by a fair way.
RECOMMENDED
OUTLANDER 5/1 (generally) 1 point win,
TOP GAMBLE 7/1 (generally) 1 point win,