Newbury Saturday

1:50 Denford Stakes (Listed) 7f

The race formerly known as the Washington Singer Stakes has an impressive roll of honour, which includes subsequent classic winners Rodrigo De Triano, Lammtarra and Haafhd. It has restricted status in terms of previous performance (closed to group winners) and breeding, and as such is an ideal stepping stone for later maturing juveniles.

It’s no surprise that this year’s race is dominated by a quartet of once-raced novice/maiden winners, but the quandary is which of the quartet will improve the most, as they will need to in order to win.

The obvious pick is Guru, who beat another highly promising sort over this track and trip on his debut, looking smart, and also with abundant scope. I would just about be a backer at his current price, but I suspect he will be heavily bet.

Jumby and Dhahabi (a Frankel half-brother to Golden Horn) will also get their share of support, and the one who I thought might drift to a decent price is Francesco Guardi.

Francesco Guardi is by Frankel out of a half-sister to Treve, so scores highly on pedigree, and he was providing James Ferguson with his first ever debutant juvenile winner when scoring despite considerable greenness on his debut at Salisbury.

The conundrum for me is that a strict reading of all the formlines in the race suggest that his is the weakest of all, but he also appeals as the one most likely to improve by a genuinely significant amount given he was the least ready for his initial experience.

If the market speaks for the others, but not for him, I’d not be concerned, while he’d have to be 10/1 or bigger for me to have a bet.

2:25 Unibet You’re On Handicap 1m

Tempus needs to improve a little to take this handicap, and he’ll also need to be at peak fitness after 10 months off, but I’m confident that he won’t fail on either of those fronts, and in Roger Charlton, he has a trainer in peak form.

Charlton’s last seven runners, ignoring those in novice or maiden company, have finished 3221311, and this top-class handler always gets the best out of his horses even if that means having to exercise extreme patience.

Tempus is very well bred, and won his first two race last year, including on soft ground at Haydock in June when giving 6lb and a comfortable beating to Lyndon B. That was hard to weigh up at the time, with the handicapper handing him a notional mark of 91.

Given Lyndon B ended the season rated 97 himself, it’s clear that the initial assessment may have been lenient, and that idea still holds true despite Tempus being beaten on his handicap debut at Wolverhampton.

He ran very well that day, but was stuck on the inner whereas those who finished ahead of him all raced wider on the track.

To my eye, he was beaten by inexperience against proven handicappers, and not by his mark. That outing will have done much to knock him into shape given that he had been able to dominate his opponents in novice company, and I am confident that he will be a considerably better performer as a four-year-old.

3:00 Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group 3) 1m 5f 61y

Morando ran a fine race in this contest last season, and could go well again if the rain falls in sufficient quantities, but I’d want to see it genuinely soft or worse before backing him, especially as his one run this season was a rather underwhelming one in the Hardwicke Stakes.

On the other hand, the degree of precipitation should be no concern to Tritonic, who has gone rather under the radar for this contest.

I was very taken by Tritonic when he won the Haynes, Hanson & Clark Stakes here last September, writing that he was the type to make a much better three-year-old, and he has already met such expectations, while offering plenty of promise for continued improvement. Runner-up in the Golden Gates Handicap at Royal Ascot off a mark of 95, he matched that form when finding just the enterprisingly ridden Subjectivist too strong in the Glasgow Stakes at Hamilton last time.

The only horses to have beaten Tritonic this season were second and third to Mogul in the Gordon Stakes at Goodwood last time, and while there has been much sniggering about the failure of this year’s Derby hopefuls, that race looked very strong on paper, and is likely to prove that way in time.

Tritonic is clearly ready for a step up to group company, and given he shapes as if he will progress again now stepped up further in trip, he seems a solid betting proposition.

Newmarket Saturday

2:05 Heed Your Hunch At Betway Handicap 1m 4f

Boss Power makes obvious appeal in this run-of-the-mill handicap, peaking now as others have shown signs of being in the grip of the handicapper, and he won with something to spare at Yarmouth last time, which suggests he remains a step ahead of the assessor having gone up 7lb for winning what was a weak enough event.

It’s well established that Sir Michael Stoute is better than most at drawing gradual improvement out of his handicappers, while he also has the kind of patient owners who don’t demand overnight results, which makes such a task that much easier.

This has been a difficult week for Sir Michael on the personal front, but his horses continue to run with great merit on the track, the yard’s last 10 runners producing figures of 31512112331.

Like many of the string, Boss Power is thriving as the season hits top gear, and he looks much the likeliest winner here, with the frustrating Zuba appealing most for those looking to play the exotics.

2:40 Betway Handicap 7f

This is pretty competitive, but Broughtons Gold looks ready for another crack at seven furlongs after winning rather more decisively than the margins indicate at Windsor last time, and the gelding is building up both a consistent and gradually progressive profile for young trainer Tom Clover.

A winner over this trip on his only try as a juvenile, Broughtons Gold has won 6f handicaps at Newbury and Windsor this summer, and he ran a stormer when 150/1 on Betfair for his racecourse debut here last year, so it will be a big surprise if has any issue with the July Course.

His defeat this season came on the softest ground he’s met, but I wouldn’t read much into that as he still ran creditably, and it must be remembered that the going at Newmarket was very firm on Wednesday, and the rain which has fallen since has been much needed, so don’t expect bog-like conditions.

Recommended

Tempus 2:25 Newbury – 2pts win @ 9/2 (general)

Tritonic 3:00 Newbury – 1pt win @ 6/1 (general)

Boss Power 2:05 Newmarket – 1pt win @ 3/1 (general)

Broughton’s Gold 2:40 Newmarket – 1.5pts win @ 10/3 (Hills, Betfair, BetVictor)

Winners

Last week’s recommended bets included

Via Serendipity (7/2 won, recommended 12/1)

Chil Chil (7/2 won, recommended 6/1)

Seattle Rock (80/1 3rd, recommended e/w)