MADHMOON looks over-priced for today’s Investec Derby. We don’t know that Kevin Prendergast’s colt will stay a mile and a half, but we know that he is classy and progressive, and we know that there is a chance that he will stay.

The Dawn Approach colt ran twice last year as a juvenile, and he won twice. Impressive in winning his maiden over a mile at Leopardstown in August, he went back to the Foxrock track on Irish Champions Weekend in September, and he won the Group 2 KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes, when he had Broome over two lengths behind him in second place.

He actually ran well on his debut this season in the Guineas Trial at Leopardstown, despite the fact that he was beaten at odds-on. The winner Never No More hasn’t run since, but he shaped like a progressive individual when he won the Madrid Handicap on his debut this season.

Madhmoon was conceding 3lbs and race fitness to Aidan O’Brien’s colt, and he was racing over an inadequate trip of seven furlongs, and probably on ground that was softer than ideal. He did well in the circumstances to run the winner to a half a length.

Sheikh Hamdan’s colt stepped forward from that next time when he finished fourth in the Guineas. Again, he had a couple of elements against him, he had to race from stall one, on the wing on the far side, in a race in which the winner and the runner-up made up two-thirds of the three-strong group that raced towards the near side. Madhmoon was beaten just a head by Skardu for third place, and Skardu did best of the group of 16 that raced down the centre.

As well as that, Madhmoon raced as if he would do better over a distance in excess of a mile. He came under pressure at the three-furlong marker, and he appeared to get a little out-paced as they raced into the Dip, but he stayed on well on the run up the hill to retain fourth place, just failing to get back up past Skardu for third.

He is by a Guineas winner, and his dam is by a Guineas winner, but you can find the stamina there too if you want. His sire is by Derby winner New Approach, and his dam stayed 10 furlongs well. She finished second to Ribblesdale Stakes winner Princess Highway in the Group 3 Blue Wind Stakes, when she finished one place and two lengths in front of Oaks winner Was.

Add that to the strength with which he finished off in the Guineas, and you can easily argue that he will get 10 furlongs at least. And he could get 12. At 10/1 or 11/1, it is worth taking a chance on his stamina.

He is high-class already but, with just four runs on his CV, he still has the potential to improve significantly as he steps up in trip.

You know that Kevin Prendergast would not be sending him to the Derby if he didn’t think that there was a real chance that he would stay. He is nicely drawn in stall six, not too high, not too low, and, in Chris Hayes he has a top class rider who knows the horse well and who is having a really good season.

Princess Elizabeth Stakes

Earlier in the day, Anna Nerium could go one better in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes than she did last year.

One of just two three-year-olds in the race last year, she did well to finish as close as she did to Wilamina under her 3lbs penalty. Held up last early on, she stayed on best of all to take second place, getting to within three parts of a length of the winner.

It never really looked like she was going to catch the winner, but she came widest and latest of all, and she did well to get as close as she did.

Her last run at Goodwood was good. Racing for just the second time this season, she again made her ground late and wide, and just failed to catch Awesometank, who re-opposes today on the same terms.

Richard Hannon’s filly is proven at the track, and it would not be surprising if this race had been her early season target for a while.

She is a year older now and she doesn’t have to carry a penalty this year. She could run a big race.

Recommended

MADHMOON: 4:30 Epsom, 1 point win, 11/1 (generally)

ANNA NERIUM: 2:35 Epsom, 1 point win, 5/1 (generally)