Rory Delargy

KEMPTON SATURDAY

2.25 BETDAQ #CHANGINGFORTHEBETTOR ADONIS JUVENILE HURDLE (GRADE 2) 2M

Redicean is unbeaten in two runs over hurdles, both over this course and distance, and he’s been visually impressive in gaining those wins, doing well to put daylight between himself and his rivals last time given the modest pace, and he’s clearly better than the bare form, and possibly massively so.

That makes it difficult to oppose him, but his price takes all of that extra value into consideration, and the bottom line is that he’s not faced a single tough rival in this discipline, which isn’t ideal when you’re considering backing an odds-on chance for a Grade 2 event. I can’t get involved at the current price.

Guillaume Macaire has a very strong hand in the French juvenile division, saddling the first two in the champion three-yer-old hurdle (Prix Cambaceres) in which Beau Gosse was disappointing last time, but the son of Falco, sire of Peace And Co, was the stable’s apparent first string when falling on his previous start at this level, and his pedigree suggests he will be suited by a sharp test at Kempton. It could be argued that he has a bit to prove after his last two runs, but on the other hand, he’s had more experience at a competitive level than most of his opponents here, and he’s arguably the one to beat on form, for all some of the lines are rather tenuous.

3.00 SKY BET DOVECOTE NOVICES’ HURDLE (GRADE 2) 2M

There are some absolutely fascinating former flat racers on show here, with the likes of Lingfield Derby Trial winner Humphrey Bogart, September Stakes runner-up Scarlet Dragon and Carntop all well above average recruits to the winter game. While the trio are making belated starts to life under National Hunt rules, it would be no surprise to see any one of them score.

Carntop is the outsider of the newcomers having become rather disappointing on the flat, but he remains in the partial ownership of the Duchess of Cornwall, and it’s intriguing that he’s had a wind operation since his last outing for Ralph Beckett. The son of Dansili wasn’t beaten far in the KIng Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot as a three-year-old, and despite looking to have his own ideas about the game, he retains that level of ability still. He strikes me as just the type to find hurdling amusing enough to show his true worth in a new sphere, and while a risky proposition on balance, he’s very dangerous to dismiss, and is never a 25/1 shot on talent alone.

Mont Des Avaloirs looks a very poor favourite given he’s shown his form on much softer ground, and he’s jumped poorly on two of his three outings to date.

3.35 BETDAQ HANDICAP CHASE (GRADE 3) 3M

I’m not in a massive hurry to oppose Acting Lass given how he has improved this season, but he has no experience of a field this size over fences, and that’s enough of an issue to stop me piling in at what are fairly skinny odds. Tintern Theatre is very interesting, and he was beating last year’s winner of this contest when scoring over track and trip in December. While he was well beaten when unseating at Haydock last time, he wouldn’t be the first to stop to nothing after travelling well at that unique circuit, and had actually shaped as if well treated for much of that race.

The worry with him is his jumping, and the fact that he’s failed to complete on three of his five starts over fences means he’s not one for maximum faith, but he’s on a good mark based on his form to date, and remains unexposed at three miles and beyond. That suggests he’s worth the risk at current odds and it may be that his completion record does him no justice.

The other runner of interest at the prices is Art Mauresque, who needs to prove that he has the requisite stamina for this trip, but travelled best of all until overhauled by Waiting Patiently here last time, and a conservative reading of that form, where he had Josses Hill labouring, gives him every chance. He was successful the last time he ran off his current handicap.

LINGFIELD SATURDAY

3.15 BETWAY WINTER DERBY STAKES (GROUP 3) 1M 2F

Clear Skies is not the typical Aidan O’Brien runner in a pattern contest, her place in this event being earned by a series of improved displays in handicaps at Dundalk this winter. While this represents her stiffest test to date, she has a fitness edge over her rivals and a draw on the fence which should help her capitalise on her current form.

The one concern would be whether a sharp 10 furlongs is ideal for the daughter of Sea The Stars given she’s been tried at up to two miles, but this looks her ideal trip at Dundalk, and it’s to be hoped she will adapt to Lingfield’s tighter circuit.

She travelled supremely well before quickening well clear of Sharjah, and while her opposition there didn’t amount to a great deal for the grade, she posted a smart time without appearing fully extended, and is clearly a smart performer, as she promised to be in her early days with David Wachman.

NEWCASTLE SATURDAY

2.45 BETFRED EIDER HANDICAP CHASE 4M 122Y

The Eider is no place for the faint-hearted, and while he’s not an easy ride, Milborough is a thorough stayer who is lightly raced for his age, and must be respected as a previous winner of this contest, particularly given the handicapper has given him a helping hand. He’s more than a stone lower in the weights than when running creditably in the 2016 contest, and he made a satisfactory comeback when fourth in the North Yorkshire Grand National at Catterick last month.

Whether he improves from that is not easy to answer, but he certainly shaped as if retaining plenty of ability and the booking of Derek Fox takes the eye.

RECOMMENDED

CARNTOP 3.00 Kempton - 1pt win @ 25/1 (general)

TINTERN THEATRE 3.35 Kempton - 1pt win @ 8/1 (general)

ART MAURESQUE 3.35 Kempton - 1pt win @ 14/1 (general)

MILBOROUGH 2.45 Newcastle - 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 (general)