AINTREE SATURDAY
2:15 RUGBY BETTING AT 188BET HANDICAP CHASE 2M 3F 200Y
He has an absence since January to overcome, but if there is one horse capable of embarrassing the handicapper in this field, it’s Pobbles Bay, who won his first two starts over fences in the style of a smart prospect, and clearly wasn’t right when well behind American in a listed contest at Warwick when last seen.
Prior to that flop, he’s jumped superbly and won easily from a solid field of novices at Chepstow. With Evan Williams making such a good start to the winter season, it’s to be hoped that Pobbles Bay will be ready for his comeback run, and he is fairly treated with the promise of further progress over fences.
3:25 FREE SPINS AT 188BET CASINO HANDICAP CHASE 1M 7F 176Y
Ballyhill already looks a better chaser than he was over hurdles, and the new handicapping rules for novice chasers means that he’s not been punished by the handicapper for excellent runs at Warwick and Cheltenham (horses beaten in novice chases below Class 1 are immune from the attentions of the assessor for their efforts in such races as part of a new BHA handicapping trial). It’s fair to say that he’d be the thick end of a stone higher in the weights if rated on his form over fences to date, and he has the added bonus of Zac Baker’s claim to ease his burden further.
His jumping has been sound to date, and it’s significant that both tracks where he has raced over fences are tricky for novices. As a result, he looks one of the best bets of the weekend, and will take all the beating against exposed if useful rivals. One exception to that description is Baby King, who might be two from two over fences but for a fall at Market Rasen on his latest start, and is respected.
WINCANTON SATURDAY
3:00 UNIBET ELITE HURDLE (Grade 2) 1M 7F 65Y
“Always back the top-weight in handicaps” is advice which probably wouldn’t get you rich as a rule, but when it comes to those handicaps open to the very best performers, it tends to hold true, and the superiority of those at the top of the tree is often underestimated. It’s remarkable that the topweight has won the Elite Hurdle in six of the last eight years, and Charbel is taken to bolster that stat by giving weight all round on his return to hurdles.
One of the best two-mile novices in 2015/16, he was even better over fences last season, and was leading Altior and still on the bridle when falling at the second last in the Arkle at Cheltenham in March. There’s no reason to believe that he’s lost anything in terms of his old hurdling speed, and he will be ideally suited by the track and trip at Wincanton, which favours those with exceptional cruising speed.
Lough Derg Spirit is favourite for this, but hasn’t done nearly enough to justify that position, and as a son of Westerner, is likely to want a stiffer test sooner or later. London Prize was effective at this trip last term, but his improvement on the flat since has come when facing stiffer tests of stamina, and that is a concern, for all it can be argued that he’s well handicapped on his Cesarewitch second.
3:35 BADGER ALES TROPHY HANDICAP CHASE (Listed) 3M 1F 30Y
This looks a very open running of the Badger Ales, and it’s hard to rule many out of the equation. The competition for the lead looks sure to be fierce, however, and it may pay to side with one who doesn’t need to dominate. Final Nudge has done little wrong since being switched to fences, and held every chance when capsizing in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter in the spring.
He may have been feeling the effects of that run next time (also lost a shoe), but is now lower in the weights, and is normally a sound jumper. He looks to have been laid out for this by David Dennis, and his father trained Coome Hill to win the corresponding event 21 years ago, before going on to add the Hennessy.
DONCASTER SATURDAY
3:15 BETFRED NOVEMBER HANDICAP 1M 3F 197Y
John Gosden has an enviable record in this contest, winning it five times in all, and it’s 25 years since he sent out the Sheikh Mohammed-owned pair Turgenev and Daru to finish first and second. Those maroon and white silks have been missing from British courses for quite some time, but have been resurrected recently.
John Gosden trains the appropriately named Royal Line here, and he can revive old memories by landing the last big handicap of the turf season. Royal Line won his first two races on easy ground before finding a tactical affair against him last time, but that run was needed to qualify him for this, and the fact that it was a farce of sorts is no bad thing as far as his trainer is concerned.
The handicapper has very little to go on in assessing Royal Line, but it’s clear his preparation to date has been engineered with this race in mind, and he was impressive when winning at Haydock on handicap bow, despite the slowly-run race not suiting his position towards the rear of the field. He gives the impression that his performances to date are hiding a much greater talent, and a well-run race at this trip ought to let him express himself fully. A wide draw is a positive when the ground is soft on Town Moor, and it’s unlikely Gosden, master tactician that he is, would let his charge be caught out by lack of experience.
RECOMMENDED
CHARBEL 3.00 Wincanton – 2pts win @ 9/2 (Bet365, Hills, Stan James)
ROYAL LINE 3.15 Doncaster – 2pts win @ 6/1 (general)
BALLYHILL 3.25 Aintree 2pts win 15/8 (general)
Rory napped last week’s winner Bristol De Mai, recommended at 10/1