Rory Delargy

KEMPTON SATURDAY:

2:05 32RED CASINO CHASE (LISTED) 2M 4F 110Y

God’s Own can take advantage of the conditions of the race which allow him to receive weight from his peers despite the fact he comes out joint best on official ratings.

He wasn’t at his best behind Smad Place in the Old Roan at Aintree, but his previous effort saw him finish a close third to Fox Norton and Un De Sceaux in the Boylesports Champion Chase at Punchestown, and he will be very hard to beat if back to that level of form. Tom George’s gelding does most of his racing over shorter, but has been runner-up on both starts over C&D, and the trip should be no excuse.

Incidentally, the horse who beat him on his most recent try at Kempton was Josses Hill, but the selection has proven more versatile and reliable than his old rival, and has a swing of almost a stone in the weights for that reversal in any case.

2:40 32RED LANZAROTE HANDICAP HURDLE (LISTED) 2M 5F

River Frost stands out, accepting that the Lanzarote is a very valuable and competitive race on paper. The selection is something of a course specialist, winning a course-and-distance handicap hurdle last February, having also won over two miles at this corresponding fixture.

He started the season with a close-up fifth in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow in October, and connections have reportedly been waiting for the right race since that promising return. The Chepstow race could not have worked out better, with Sam Spinner (second) taking both starts since, the most recent a Grade 1, while Wholestone (fourth) has also won in pattern company. The trio who finished immediately behind River Frost all won next time, and the conclusion is that the 3lb he was raised for his effort looks very lenient.

Diese Des Bieffes is an interesting opponent, and he looks a good prospect, but this race usually goes to one with experience at a similar level, and Nicky Henderson’s charge may lack the know-how to score at this stage of his career.

WARWICK SATURDAY:

1:50 BETFRED HOME OF GOALS GALORE HAMPTON NOVICES’ CHASE (LISTED) 3M

Duel At Dawn is the clear pick on this season’s chase form, even if Flintham’s second in last year’s Reynoldstown is taken at face value.

It’s possible to make excuses for Flintham’s defeat by the selection at Exeter, where he may have needed the run, but Mark Bradstock’s half-brother to Gold Cup winner Coneygree has become something of a weak finisher, and Duel At Dawn has since gone on to post a better effort when second to Sizing Tennessee at Cheltenham. That looks like the most significant form-line in the race, and while I expect Big River to prove his latest run all wrong (suffering from an irregular heartbeat post race), Duel At Dawn is very much the one to beat.

2:25 PERTEMPS NETWORK HANDICAP HURDLE (QUALIFIER) 3M 1F

Malcolm Jefferson has twice trained the winner of the final of this contest, with Tindari in 1994 and Cape Tribulation in 2012, and he has another live contender in the shape of the progressive Black Ivory, who took his form to new heights when beating the useful Le Breuil at Aintree last month.

That win was in a race which attracted just four runners, but the runner-up gave his running and the others were beaten out of sight, so it could easily be underestimated. Prior to that, Black Ivory had shown his stamina for this sort of test when runner-up at the same track in October, and he did well to finish so close in a race stolen from the front by an inexperienced but capable rider. Black Ivory will improve further, and is unexposed still after just seven starts over hurdles, most of them at significantly shorter trips.

3:00 BALLYMORE LEAMINGTON NOVICES’ HURDLE (GRADE 2) 2M 5F

Mr Whipped looks short enough on what he achieved at Newbury last time, the style of that success certainly taking, but the substance hard to get a handle on, and the impression is that it was quite a weak race for the track, a notion backed up by the clock. On the other hand, Count Meribel has rock-solid form but a slightly less attractive profile, and will be ridden by an unfashionable rider in weighing-room veteran Mark Grant.

He’s the kind of horse that punters tend to pass over by reflex on the hunt for value, but he’s already a fair bit bigger than his form dictates, and may well drift further if punters latch on to the unexposed favourite. Count Meribel has an uncomplicated run style which suits the turning track at Warwick, and it will take a decent horse to beat him if he can reproduce the form of either of his last two runs, when winning at Ascot or finishing second over a trip which stretched him at Cheltenham. The drop to this intermediate distance is ideal, and he really ought to be favourite.

3:35 BETFRED CLASSIC HANDICAP CHASE (GRADE 3) 3M 5F 54Y

There are plenty to choose from in an open-looking Classic Chase, from top weight Missed Approach, who has been given a big chance by the handicapper having largely run with credit over fences, to Russe Blanc at the other end of the weights.

The 2016 winner saves his best for this venue, and was much better than the result at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, when his jumping let him down continually.

Cresswell Breeze represents a yard in excellent form, and she comes here on the back of her best efforts in this sphere, winning the Southern National and finishing third in the London Version. She is another who merits respect, but the vote goes to Krackatoa King, who was a difficult horse to ride when with Noel Williams, but is a sweeter traveller these days, and has run well on all three starts in the current campaign.

Runner-up to subsequent Mandarin winner Daklondike on his return at Wetherby when trying to concede 6lb, he went one better at Uttoxeter next time, and was nailed close home at Wincanton on Boxing Day. That first effort was a cracker considering the winner is now rated 139, and the selections consistent form figures in handicap chases show him to be well handicapped. He looks the better of Kerry Lee’s pair, and has the benefit of Richard Patrick’s claim to boot.

RECOMMENDED:

RIVER FROST 2.40 Kempton – 1pt win @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes, Hills, Stan James)

BLACK IVORY 2.25 Warwick – 1pt win @ 5/1 (general)

COUNT MERIBEL 3.00 Warwick – 2pts win @ 5/2 (Hills)

KRACKATOA KING 3.35 Warwick – 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Hills)