Ascot Saturday

1.50 Plymouth Gin Handicap Chase 2m 2f 175y

Given the exceptional form of the Venetia Williams stable, it should pay to respect the chances of her representative Espoir De Guye here. Formerly trained by Gaëtan Taupin in France, the son of Khalkevi has improved with each run for his new yard, finding two miles a bit too sharp at Chepstow when splitting subsequent winners Simply The Betts and Golden Whisky before winning with some authority over a similar trip to this at Exeter last time, when he had much more in hand than the official margin in slamming Deauville Dancer.

The handicapper has reacted by raising him 9lbs to 130, and he now meets Golden Whisky on 4lb worse terms than at Chepstow, but the way he finished there suggests he can confirm the form over this trip, and the Williams horses are frankly unstoppable at present.

2.25 Marsh Hurdle (Long Walk) (Grade 1) 3m 97y

It’s dangerous to assume the Long Walk will be a stroll in the park for Paisley Park, especially as heavy ground can be a great leveller in racing, and he’s a horse who can drop the bridle, so is not the type to lump on if you’re of a nervous disposition. For all that, he doesn’t really look one to field against even at cramped odds, especially as it’s hard to find an outstanding candidate among the others.

3.00 Dave Dawes Silver Cup Handicap Chase (Listed) 2m 7f 180y

I must admit to having a small interest on Jerrysback earlier in the week, and while he’s a much shorter price now, that accounts for the fact that his trainer had not committed him, and seeing him line up as the choice of Barry Geraghty adds a degree of confidence to that earlier play.

A facile winner on his chase debut at Bangor despite clearly not being expected, Jerrysback then split Vinndication and Lil Rockerfeller in the Noel Novices’ Chase at this meeting a year ago, beaten by one and a half lengths by the winner at level weights.

Given that Vinndication is now rated 159, it’s fair to say that Jerrysback looks fairly treated on 143, especially considering he finished ahead of Crucial Role, Le Breuil and Slate House on his next start, before finding the gruelling test too much behind Le Breuil at Cheltenham. He shaped much, much better than the distance beaten in the four-miler, and is a horse who ought to do better again this season.

The one thing to forgive is a poor run on hie return, but that had all the hallmarks of a pipe-opener on ground too quick and a trip short of his best. Expect him to bounce back to form here, and he will be hard to beat off a lenient looking mark if doing so.

3.35 Betfair Exchange Trophy (Handicap Hurdle) (Grade 3) 1m 7f 152y

As usual, this contest looks fiercely competitive, and it’s not easy to be hugely confident, especially if backing one with limited experience, as I am, but there are sound reasons to believe that Sir Valentine is well-handicapped, and has the natural run style to be suited by this contest.

Whether he can cope with the hurly burly is another matter, but I’m convinced that he was beaten by a future champion at Wetherby last time, and if you ignore the presence of Ribble Valley in that contest, I think the handicapper would feel compelled to give the selection a stiffer mark than 130 for beating Rayna’s World and Proschema by six lengths and 20 lengths.

The form of that contest, run in an exceptionally good time for the grade, is already working out well, and Sir Valentine is taken to pay a compliment to his conqueror by landing this valuable handicap.

As I’ve said, his ability to cope with a race like this is an unknown, but 16/1 looks an eminently fair price for those willing to take that chance.

Haydock Saturday

1.00 Betway Abram Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Listed) 2m 2f 191y

It’s encouraging that Anthony Honeyball has put the exciting Deja Vue in here after her easy win at Ffos Las early in the week, and while this is a quick turnaround, she won with so much in hand the other day, that I would hope she could turn out again to prove that she has been hugely underrated by the handicapper.

Before Monday’s win over Sirop De Menthe, the daughter of Fame And Glory had won a maiden hurdle at the track by 40 lengths, and while it’s easy to assume she’s been beating nothing, she evidence of the clock is that she is worthy giving complete credit for those performances.

Of course, Ffos Las form does not always translate elsewhere, but I’d be pretty confident this is simply a classy mare who wants testing ground than some sort of course specialist, and hopefully she gets the chance to show that here.

2.05 Betway Casino Handicap Hurdle 3m 58y

Big Shark certainly deserves respect on his handicap bow after two wins in novice company. I’d hate to be the man asked to assess him, but on the other hand, he’s very well found in the market, and there’s every chance that he’s not a stone better than the form he’s shown, so I’d rather take a chance on one whose mark is definitely fair, and who makes a deal more appeal at the prices.

Closing Ceremony was disappointing in the equivalent race last season (albeit that contest was run at a significantly shorter trip), weakening rather tamely. That tendency is definitely a concern, but he is a high-class handicapper on his day, and is hard to ignore off a mark of 131 given what he’s capable off, and he was a Grade 2 winner in the Rendlesham Hurdle earlier in his career. He got back to winning ways here in January, and has won all four times he’s raced at three miles at this track.

He shaped a fair bit better than his finishing position at Newbury on his return, and was not at all knocked about when beaten there, so I’d hope he’d come forward a fair bit, and his track record alone demands that he be backed now.

2.40 Betway Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase 3m 1f 125y

Daklondike hasn’t had his conditions since winning the Tommy Whittle last year, but is on a fair mark based on that win, and can gain back-to-back wins in this historic contest with the going back in his favour.

Daklondike represents the David Pipe/Professor Caroline Tisdall combination which tasted big handicap success with Warthog at Cheltenham on Saturday, and Pipe’s chasers are belatedly hitting form. The selection was well-beaten in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury last time, but the combination of good ground and better-class rivals saw him struggle. He can put that form behind him, assuming he’s been kept sweet in the meantime.

An 8/1 shot with Hills at the time of writing, he’s sure to be shorter on the day.

Recommended

Jerrysback, 3.00 Ascot, – 2pts win @ 7/1 (general)

Sir Valentine, 3.35 Ascot, – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (general)

Closing Ceremony, 2.05 Haydock – 1pt win @ 6/1 (Hills)

Winners

Rory tipped two Cheltenham winners last week - Northern Beau @12/1 and Call Me Lord @ 2/1 favourite