Ayr Saturday

2:40 William Hill Ayr Silver Cup Handicap 6f

I’m taking two against the field in the Silver Cup, with Jawwaal having been in my notebook all season. I’ve had him down as being a bit soft in a finish, but it turns out he’s been known to break blood vessels. While this is an obvious concern, it mitigates the bigger worry that he may be ungenuine.

The Indian summer is a boost to his chances, while he handles soft ground, a typical autumn slog in that sort of ground would definitely not be his cup of tea. He disappointed at Thirsk last time, but didn’t have things go his way. He’s now run poorly twice at that track, and may have been remembering a previous bad experience when bleeding in a race there in May.

This close third behind Dakota Gold at York in July reads very well indeed now, and he traded a fair shade of odds-on that day. Michael Dods has a decent record of extracting improvement from his sprinters by applying cheekpieces. Jawwaal is just the type to benefit from the headgear given his tendency to finish a little tamely after travelling well.

The other horse I’ll keep on side is Phil Makin’s Lahore, who looked better than ever when chasing home Portland favourite Bielsa at Thirsk last time. The way the pair pulled clear shows that they are ahead of the handicapper.

Bielsa promised more than he delivered at Doncaster, where he was betrayed by inexperience, but that should be no issue for Lahore, who knows his way around, and is able to compete off his old mark.

3:50 William Hill Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) 6f

The Gold Cup seems harder to unlock than its consolation. I’ve been keen on Arecibo for a little while, and I backed him in the week on the off-chance that Cieren Fllon would be snapped up by David O’Meara and the price would collapse.

In the end Fallon is busy at Newmarket, and the price has held up fine. The gelding ran well with severe headgear on his last two starts and he very much caught the eye when beaten less than a length behind Oxted in the Portland in blinkers.

The visor he wore when second at Haydock prior to that is back on, and both track and drying ground are firmly in his favour. Throw in the exceptional Danny Tudhope in the plate, and he ticks an awful lot of boxes.

Newbury Saturday

1:45 Dubai International Airport World Trophy Stakes (Group 3) 5f 34y

Dakota Gold has taken time to iron out his kinks, but the worst he could be accused of in his career is being just a bit too enthusiastic. He is now getting home much better in his races, getting better with each one. He’s been positively rampant of late, landing a trio of hugely competitive handicaps before taking the step up to listed company in his stride at York last time.

This is another step up in theory, but most of the field come with a bit to prove, and the selection is top of the list on official ratings. Sometimes it can be a culture shock for top handicappers moving into pattern races, but less so at sprint trips. Dakota Gold has now found real steel and resolution to go with his great speed and that should see him through against these.

2:20 Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup Stakes (Group 3) 1m 3f

He may be conceding plenty in terms of age, but Desert Encounter could hardly be a more solid contender on form. His lifetime record since debut outside of Group 1 company reads: 2311113212132133311.

He won this race two years ago, and probably would have won if produced a little later last year. He’s been ridden to victory by Jamie Spencer on his last two starts, and the pair are a match made in heaven. He’s the pick of this field on official ratings, and will win if he can be produced as late as possible.

2:55 Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes (Group 2) 6f

I’m not a fan of backing juveniles who have been off for four months unless I’m getting fancy odds. Therefore, favourite Pierre Lapin is not for me. It’s not often Roger Varian’s horses benefit immediately from a lengthy break, so I much prefer the claims of Mystery Power, who disappointed behind Pinatubo in the Vintage Stakes, but that is easy to forgive given what a monster the winner is.

Prior to that he had looked a smart prospect when beating Juan Elcano in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket, and with the runner-up finishing an excellent third to Threat in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster.

The form looks just as good as it did at the time, especially as Juan Elcano shaped as if better for the run on Town Moor having had a stint on the side lines since Newmarket. On balance, I think he should be clear favourite for this, and I expect he will come the start.

3:30 Dubai Duty Free Handicap 1m 2f

Forest of Dean is a group winner in waiting as he showed well enough with an easy win in what we used to call the Extel Handicap at Goodwood. He defied a 7lb rise to win with equal authority at York next time.

Those wins followed a break after he finished fourth in the London Gold Cup at Newbury in May, and he remains fresh and open to further improvement, and it’s hard to see a 5lb penalty alone being enough to stop him granted any degree of luck.

Recommended:

Lahore 14:40 Ayr – 1pt e/w @ 15/2 (general – 6 places)

Jawwaal 14:40 Ayr – 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (general – 6 places)

Arecibo 15:50 Ayr – 1pt e/w @ 10/1 SkyBet, Paddy Power – 7 places)