Goodwood Saturday

1:50 Ladbrokes Prestige Stakes (Group 3) 7f

While I respect the claims of impressive debut winner Pomelo and Super Sprint heroine Happy Romance, I prefer to side with Isabella Giles, who is bred to relish the step up to seven furlongs having been caught flat-footed in the Princess Margaret Stakes at Ascot.

That form has not worked out, but I’d be a lot more worried about it if the fillies who have come out of it had run well while showing that they were just short of group class. As it is, the first, second and fourth have all run appallingly, and that is simply no measure of the reliability of the Ascot form.

Isabella Giles won her first two races over shorter while giving the impression she would progress when racing beyond sprint trips, and as a daughter of Belardo, she should also do better for meeting soft ground for the first time.

She is being unfairly judged on what was a perfectly good performance last time, and certainly achieved more there than the favourite did when beating a modest bunch at Newbury.

2:25 Brian Chattaway Celebrating 50 Years At Ladbrokes Handicap 7f

None of these is entirely convincing, but a going-stick reading of 5.2 ahead of Friday’s meeting suggests that there won’t be much good in the ground, and that impression was backed up by the visual impression of racing, with the ground cutting up quite badly.

I would want to focus on genuine soft-ground performers at both this meeting and at Windsor. Stable form is a major concern for Alemaratalyoum, but his record on soft or deeper ground stands out in this field, with lifetime form figures on such a surface reading 1121413.

Stuart Williams’s six-year-old has been well below form on his last two starts, but poor runs at York and Chester are forgivable in the circumstances, and the return to seven furlongs in the mud will suit, as will a low draw in stall two. He’s not one for maximum stakes, but looks the value call in a race lacking a standout performer.

3:35 Ladbrokes Celebration Mile Stakes (Group 2) 1m

I would have risked Benbatl here on good or slightly softer ground, and he was hugely impressive on his return at Newmarket last term, but proper soft ground is a huge question given his overall record, and the wise move here is to back Century Dream for the in-form Crisford stable. Aside from a moderate effort in the QEII Stakes on what was his first start of the season last year, his domestic record on testing ground is excellent, and he looks the likeliest winner in the conditions, notwithstanding a disappointing effort in the Prix d’Ispahan.

I suspect the market will change markedly overnight, and we may even see the favourite taken out. In that case, I’d leave the race alone, but at around 5/1 at the time of writing, Century Dream has to be backed.

Windsor Saturday

2:40 Gallagher Group August Stakes (Listed) 1m 3f99y

Desert Encounter has won all three of his starts at Windsor, including both blacktype races on this card, and he seems to retain all of his ability at the age of eight. He is effective on the prevailing heavy ground, and is a more reliable proposition of another mudlark in the shape of Alounak. That horse would have a huge chance based on his second in the Hardwicke Stakes, but that is something of a standout on his card, and he’s been a tad disappointing since.

He’s met Desert Encounter on numerous occasions and in different conditions in the past year, and has finished behind him on every occasion except when the pair filled the last two places in the Coronation Cup behind Ghaiyyath. In the circumstances, the selection should be much shorter than his old rival.

Newmarket Saturday

2:05 Close Brothers Hopeful Stakes (Listed) 6f

Worsening conditions and her straightforward style means that the admirable Bungee Jump could reward each-way support at a big price. She absolutely bolted up on the Rowley Mile (well, three parts of it) here in June, beating Magic J by five and a half lengths in a smart time, and while she’s been unable to dominate more recently, she has won on heavy ground, and could be hard to peg back if getting loose early. The 20/1 looks big with prospects looking fairly realistic.

Perth Sunday

2:40 Bet365 Handicap Hurdle 2m 4f 35y

A couple of the more interesting ones have come out of this contest, and it looks more winnable as a result. Imperial Elysian is on a roll and merits respect, but he was well beaten on soft ground here in September and his best run came on quick ground at Southwell last time.

I fancy that Native Fighter will be ideally suited by the trip here having got outstayed over 2¾m at Cartmel last time.

Prior to a spell on the flat this summer, Jimmy Moffatt’s son of Lawman had won a two-mile, one-furlong handicap hurdle at Carlisle despite being badly hampered at a vital stage, and the intermediate trip at this easy course ought to be perfect.

Charlotte Jones has built up a very solid record for her retained yard, her lack of outside rides helping to maintain her claim, and she is often ignored by punters. She will be in receipt of 17lb from her market rival when her claim is taken into consideration, and that should swing things in favour of the selection.

3:15 Bet365 Sam Morshead Perth Gold Cup Handicap Chase 2m7f180y

Although he’s a 10-year-old, Imada has not had much racing, and he’s rarely been able to take two runs in quick succession, hinting strongly that he’s had ongoing training issues. It is therefore hugely encouraging that he’s due to race again on tomorrow having made an excellent comeback to win easily on his reappearance at Bangor on what was his first ever try at three miles.

He won by a wide margin against higher rated rivals in Wales, so it’s not much of a concern that he’s taken a big hike in the weights, the result of that race suggesting he’s simply improved for having his stamina tested. He’s racing in the same class here despite the handicapper’s actions.

Whether you would want to back him ante-post for something later in the season is open to debate given how rarely he’s made the track, but he looks to have a huge chance here if the Bangor run hasn’t bottomed him, and his trainer’s famous patience should be rewarded.

Recommended:

Saturday

Isabella Giles 1:50 Goodwood – 2pts win @ 9/2 (general)

Alemaratalyoum 2:25 Good – 1pt win @ 8/1 (general)

Desert Encounter 2:40 Windsor – 1pt win @ 5/2 (general)

Bungee Jump 2:05 Newmarket – 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365, Paddy Power, Boylesports)

Sunday

Native Fighter 2:40 Perth – 1pt win @ 9/2 (Bet365, 4/1 Hills)

Imada 3:15 Perth – 2pts win @ 10/3 (Hills, Bet365)