Kempton Thursday

1.20 Ladbrokes “Where The Nation Plays” Chase (Novices’ Limited Handicap) 2m 4f 110y

On paper, he has plenty to find to take this competitive contest, but Hold The Note is almost certainly much better than he’s been able to show in his solitary start over fences. He should improve enough to be a big player in a race which connections won last year with Glen Forsa, and were second in the previous year with subsequent Cheltenham Festival winner Mister Whitaker. They were also second in 2014 with Knock House, and given their paucity of runners over jumps in recent years, it’s clear that this race is one they target specifically.

Hold The Note has plenty in common with Glen Forsa, being a chasing sort in appearance who showed useful form in bumpers, and used his time over hurdles specifically to gain a handicap mark to be utilised over the larger obstacles.

He shaped like the best horse in the race on his chase debut at Ludlow, where he was the subject of unrelenting support, but he faded from the last as if the run was needed, although it’s possible the combination of trip and heavy ground made the race too much of a stamina test.

Either way, he looks absolutely tailor-made for this test, and a win should see his mark go up enough to get him into the Close Brothers Novices’ Handicap Chase in March, although connections ended up winning the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase with last year’s winner.

1.55 Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Grade 1) 3m

In truth, the horse I like most in this contest is a horse I’m adamant doesn’t want this trip, for all I’m in the minority with that assessment, so it’s a tricky race to get heavily involved in. Black Op is the best of these in my eyes, but I thought he showed plenty of toe over shorter on his return, and while he was beaten for a turn of foot by Champ at Newbury, my belief is that he simply set too steady a pace, and he will be ideally suited to a well-run race at up to two and a half miles over fences. That makes him look vulnerable here, to my eyes, but I’d be happy to back him for a more lucrative prize back in trip, so it’s a case of watch this space with him.

I think that Danny Whizzbang’s win in the John Francome at the same Newbury meeting is vastly inferior form with Reserve Tank a disappointment, and Slate House was far from convincing over this trip at Huntingdon last time.

I’m running out of options, truth be told, and I rather fall on Master Tommytucker by default. That’s not to say he’s lacking class – if anything he looks an absolute freak – but that he’s a slightly risky conveyance in that he’s both fragile, and inclined to be very enthusiastic. This could count against him in a race of this nature, but despite having a 50% completion record, I think his jumping is exceptional, and the way he shook off his pursuers over an inadequate trip here on his return was something else.

He was caught at the second last that day, and looked sure to weaken given how keen he’d been, but he battled back like a stayer, and if he settle only marginally better, he would be destined for great things.

I do accept that there is something of a risk in backing Master Tommytucker – who sports a tongue tie for the first time – but his run style and quicksilver jumping will get his rivals in trouble before it bothers him, and while there’s a strong chance he’ll be running on fumes by the end, I think the damage to the opposition will be done by then.

2.30 Ladbrokes Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m

This would be a fairly simple task if the ground was on the quick side, as the form shown last year by Verdana Blue is well in advance of what the others have managed, and yet the dangers come from within her own yard, and indeed from horses who seem to get more praise from her esteemed trainer than she does.

That said, Nicky Henderson has much more reason to keep Messrs Munir and Souede sweet than he does to know-tow to Michael Tabor, who’s hardly in the market for a string of jumps horses, and has bought Verdana Blue (who races in his wife’s colours) with a view to her broodmare potential as much as anything.

The fact that Verdana Blue has been to Tattersalls for her much publicised sale could be used as evidence that she’s had an interrupted preparation, but I take the view that she could be as much value to new connections running in valuable all-weather races this winter, and if she wasn’t ready for this, then the flat route would make more sense.

Henderson himself is unlikely to be put under any pressure to rush her preparation for a race such as this, which she won so memorably last year. Perhaps Epatante and Fusil Raffles will develop into Champion Hurdle types as the season progresses, but their achievements to date are dwarfed by those of their elder stablemate, and she deserves the vote despite slight ground concerns.

3.05 Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1) 3m

There is a slight doubt about him staying the trip given he’s proven best at around two miles, five furlongs so far, but Cyrname has looked an absolutely outstanding talent going right-handed in the past year, and much as I love Lostintranslation, the opportunity to back the best horse in training in a level-weights race at around 7/4 cannot be turned down.

This is not an easy decision to make for me, as I’m sure that Lostintranslation will progress more than the favourite here, but a mathematical assessment of the race, before tactics are even considered, tells me that Cyrname ought to be close to even money than he is, and while the net result is that I will probably watch the race with just a modest investment if I bet at all, the horse to be with is Cyrname on all known evidence.

Wetherby Thursday

2.10 888Sport Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase (Grade 3) 3m 45y

I fielded against Top Ville Ben in the Rehearsal Chase due to the stiff finish, and he was swamped after the last having looked all over the winner at Newcastle. I’m more than happy to side with him here, however, as he’s shown on more than one occasion that Wetherby suits him ideally, and his handicap mark looks more than fair given how well he travelled for 96% of the journey last time.

The selection has won two of three starts over fences at Wetherby, and even when well held in the Charlie Hall against higher rated rivals, he travelled best of all for much of the race, and his zestful style is perfect for this track.

Recommended

Hold The Note 1.20 Kempton – 2pts win @ 6/1 (SkyBet, 888Sport)

Master Tommytucker 1.55 Kempton – 1pt win @ 7/2 (Ladbrokes, Coral)

Verdana Blue 2.30 Kempton – 1pt win @ 9/2 (SkyBet, Unibet)

Top Ville Ben 2.10 Wetherby – 2pts win @ 3/1 (William Hill)

Winner

Rory tipped Ascot winner Espoir De Guye @11/4 last week.