Rory Delargy

AYR SATURDAY

2.35 QTS SCOTTISH CHAMPION HURDLE (2M)

Sign Of A Victory was an unlucky loser at this meeting a year ago, and improved markedly when a stylish winner at Ascot in October, since when the gelding has been repeatedly denied his conditions. The fast-ground specialist was a late defector from both the Ladbroke and Betfair Hurdle on account of unsuitable conditions, and was also hampered by soft going when beaten in graded company at Kempton and Wincanton. The arrival of more clement weather in the last week or so is sure to have put a spring in the step of Nicky Henderson, and the son of Kayf Tara can finally deliver the big-race win his Ascot romp promised. On that occasion he proved too classy for stablemate Dawalan and Baradari, both of whom have won valuable events over hurdles since, as have the well-held pair Kilcooley (National Spirit) and Violet Dancer (Betfair Hurdle) to give the form a very solid appearance; the handicapper raised Sign of A Victory to a mark of 147 for that performance, but the subsequent exploits of those behind suggests that assessment is lenient, and it’s easy to forgive defeats in the Christmas Hurdle and Kingwell.

Andrew Tinkler takes the ride, and has used the absence of the injured Barry Geraghty to showcase his own talents in the saddle, winning the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham for the same connections, and he can again make hay while the sun continues to shine.

3.45 CORAL SCOTTISH GRAND NATIONAL HANDICAP CHASE (4M110Y)

On the face of it the Scottish National is a near-impossible puzzle to solve, but plenty of those with solid form credentials have questions to answer if the ground rides fast, and it’s not easy to fancy the more exposed runners in a race which tends to be dominated by improvers. Gallant Oscar is tempting having shown improved form when third to The Druids Nephew at Cheltenham, on what was his first ever run on a sound surface. He’s clearly well enough suited by top-of-the-ground conditions, and he’s already won a Leinster National, which seems to strengthen his claims, but that win at Naas was over a bare three miles, and while he may well stay the extra mile here, it’s enough of a concern to put me off at his current price.

One who will stay is Broadway Buffalo, who was runner-up in the National Hunt Chase at that same Cheltenham meeting, and seems to have the beating of both Sego Success and Cogry on that effort, although it’s almost certain that David Pipe’s charge was seen to best effect there, the fact he avoided mistakes no guarantee that he has overcome that tendency, and the feeling is that the form may well get turned on its head. Sego Success is certainly worthy of mention, and will be seen to better effect in a truly run contest, but I’ve always been drawn to Cogry as a potential winner of this race, and he is another who didn’t run quite as well as he can at Cheltenham, as indeed was the case a year ago. Normally a very sound jumper, he impressed when scoring on his first completed start over fences at Chepstow in January, and is only 7lb higher in the weights despite wins for the pair he beat. He didn’t fence with his usual elan in the four-miler, but is worth another chance back on a more conventional track.

THIRSK SATURDAY

5.05 JOIN THE RACING UK CLUB HANDICAP (5F)

This is a cracking little race of its type, with several promising three-year-old sprinters in opposition, and the likes of Bowson Fred and Uptight look sure to pay their way for shrewd yards, but the value may lie in backing Midlander despite a moderate effort at Pontefract recently. Mark Johnson’s Shamardal colt has loads of scope, but was faced with a tough draw at ‘Ponte’, and was unable to find cover, eventually fading out of contention without being knocked about. That outing won’t be lost on him, and conditions look ideal for him to bounce back. Thirsk tends to favour those drawn high on the sprint track, and Midlander has enough early speed to take a prominent pitch on the stands rail from his draw in stall eight. Of those berthed closer to the favoured rail, only Johnny B Goode, in front of the selection last time, has the speed to lead him up, and while Richard Fahey’s charge ought to confirm form from a simplistic point of view, the chances are that he was more forward than Midlander for that reappearance, and he also had pretty much every chance the way that race unfolded. With quicker ground another positive, I’d be disappointed if Midlander couldn’t turn the tables, and he ought to be available at double-figure odds given that blip.

5.40 THIRSK RACES NEXT SATURDAY 2nd MAY HANDICAP (6F)

Pea Shooter caught the eye from a poor draw at Southwell on his final start for Dandy Nicholls recently, and with the official assessor easing his mark further for that defeat, looks poised to end a losing sequence now making his debut for Marjorie Fife. The six-year-old gelding usually competes in a higher grade than this and although some may take the move from the established Nicholls as a negative, the fact that he remains in the same ownership is noteworthy, and his new yard’s win record is none too shabby.

Fife is, in my opinion, considerably underrated as a handler, and gets more than her share of winners with older horses, often at outlandish prices. Pea Shooter will surely not be allowed to start at huge odds here, but is still likely to represent value, and has the speed to take a prime position from his stands-rail draw; with fitness assured after two spins on fibresand this year, he should take some stopping.

RECOMMENDED

SIGN OF A VICTORY 2.35 Ayr 2pts win @ 11/2 (general)

COGRY 3.45 Ayr 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (various)

MIDLANDER 5.05 Thirsk 1pt win

PEA SHOOTER 5.40 Thirsk 1pt win