TODAY’S Bet365 Challenge Cup isn’t the 30-runner charge that you often associate with Ascot, with, say, a Royal Hunt Cup or a Britannia Handicap. They narrow the track in order to save ground for British Champions Day in two weeks, and that means that the safety limit for today’s race is reduced to a maximum of 18.

With the prospect of defections this morning – Raydiance ran yesterday – there will be fewer runners and therefore fewer strands to today’s formlines than is usually the case with a big handicap on Ascot’s straight track.

Raising Sand won the Challenge Cup last year, and it is not surprising that Jamie Osborne’s horse tops the market again this year, even if he does also top the handicap. He won well last year, he finished off his race strongly, and he came two lengths clear of his rivals.

Good form

He has been in good form this year too, and he loves Ascot. He finished fourth in the Victoria Cup and third in the Royal Hunt Cup, before winning the International Handicap over today’s course and distance on King George day. He proved that he could operate away from Ascot too when he finished third behind Great Scot last time in the Group 3 Superior Mile at Haydock.

But he is short, and he is up to a mark of 109. The handicapper gave him 6lbs for winning the International Handicap, which was a significant hike for a seven-year-old who was racing for the 25th time. He is 12lbs higher than he was when he won this race last year, and he is 6lbs higher than he has ever been in a handicap before. You can see him running well, but he is short, and it is a big ask.

Ripp Orf loves Ascot too, and goes well on soft ground, and goes well over seven furlongs. David Elsworth’s horse will race off a mark of 96 today, actually 1lb lower than the mark off which he finished second in this race last year.

He hasn’t won in a while, but he only just failed to catch Salute The Soldier last time over today’s course and distance, and he is another who could run well.

Casanova is unexposed, and Bedouin’s Story and Qaysar are both progressive, but it might pay to give Kynren one more chance. He is frustrating, because there are so many twos and threes in front of his name (nine in total) and not so many 1s. (Just three of them.) And he hasn’t won since he landed a Class 4 handicap at Redcar in September 2017 as a three-year-old.

Deserters

But he could be under-rated today. It may be that even some of his loyal supporters will desert him on the back of his defeat in a handicap at Ayr last time when he was sent off the 7/4 favourite.

He ran well that day. He came under pressure early on the good ground, but he kept finding for pressure and, in the end, he only went down by a half a length to Waarif, who had won the same race last year.

He will be better suited by the easier ground today, he shouldn’t come under pressure as early on the ground, and he is another who goes well at Ascot. He has finished fifth in a Royal Hunt Cup and fifth in a Balmoral Handicap, and he put up one of the best performances of his life in the Victoria Cup earlier this year when he went down by just a neck to Cape Byron, who danced in in the Wokingham next time off a 4lb higher mark.

That was over today’s course and distance on good to soft ground. The ground should be even softer today and, for a horse who stays a mile well, that should be a positive. Seven furlongs on soft ground at Ascot should represent close to optimal conditions for Kynren.

The fact that Ben Curtis is back on board is also a positive. He is a good rider whose record on Kynren reads 111320. He is the only rider who has won on the Clodovil gelding, and he could further enhance that record today.

Walker filly

Earier in the day, Maygold could out-run her odds in the opening Listed Rous Stakes.

Ed Walker’s filly was seriously impressive in winning a five-furlong handicap on soft ground at Haydock last time. She travelled well through her race that day, and she showed a really impressive turn of foot to come clear of Arecibo, who enhanced the form with a good run to finish fourth in the Portland Handicap next time.

The handicapper raised Maygold by 7lbs for that run, and even her new mark of 97 leaves her with plenty to find with the top-rated horses here on official ratings. Not only is she 5lbs worse off with Arecibo from their Haydock run, but she is rated 13lbs inferior to Dakota Gold and 12lbs inferior to Tis Marvellous.

She gets the 5lb mares’ allowance though, which obviously helps, and Dakota Gold has to carry a 3lb penalty, which also helps.

More than that, though, Maygold goes into the race on a high. She had more in hand at Haydock than the two-length winning margin, and the turn of foot that she showed that day, on the soft ground, is a potent weapon.

She has never run at Ascot, but five furlongs is her trip, and this is her ground – her record on soft ground reads 3211 – and she could go well.

Recommended

Maygold, 1 point win, 2.00 Ascot, 6/1 (generally)

Kynren, 1 point each-way, 3.10 Ascot, 8/1 (generally)