Rory Delargy

NEWMARKET SATURDAY

3.35 QIPCO 2000 GUINEAS STAKES (GROUP 1) 1M

With the stalls on the stands side and a false rail in operation, expect the race to take shape in one group, with Craven winner Masar likely to make the running against the near rail and the others jostling for position behind him.

That makes me think that low numbers will struggle, which could count against favourite Gustav Klimt, who appears short enough on balance in any case. The going-stick readings at Newmarket suggest the ground gets progressive slower moving away from the stands as well, although that might change with a warm and sunny day in prospect.

Aidan O’Brien has a strong hand as always, although the defection of U S Navy Flag makes it look weaker than it did at the start of the season, and the underlying feeling is that Gustav Klimt has worked his way to the head of the O’Brien echelon somewhat by default. The Superlative Stakes winner improved when winning Leopardstown’s 2000 Guineas Trial in heavy ground, where U S Navy Flag bombed out, and it’s not an easy race to be adamant about, for all the winner quickened in the style of a top-class performer.

He picked up an injury prior to an intended run in the Dewhurst last season, and his recent win suggests he would have taken the beating in that contest. Had he won the Dewhurst, there would be no equivocation about his place in the pecking order, and he is certainly more of a Guineas type in terms of breeding and physique than Racing Post Trophy winner Saxon Warrior, who is surely in need of a stiffer test this year.

Indeed, he was initially swamped for pace by Roaring Lion at Doncaster only to rally, and with that rival flopping in the Craven, there are questions for the Town Moor principals to answer.

Gustav Klimt may be skinny, but he still makes much more appeal at best prices than Saxon Warrior.

Roaring Lion has over nine lengths to make up on Masar on Craven form, but the winner had a perfect run there, and was stepping straight off a flight from Dubai, so his advantage in terms of acclimatisation and opportunity will have been eroded in the weeks since.

Roaring Lion has also taken a massive walk in the betting to the extent that he now appears the value option of the pair – it shouldn’t be forgotten that Masar himself had been beaten pointless at Meydan on his previous start, and if such improvement can be wrought in him in a few weeks, the same may also be true for John Gosden’s talented son of Kitten’s Joy. A bit of sunshine can make a big difference, and a lot of classic hopes have been slow to come to hand with the late onset of spring in Ireland and Britain.

Expert Eye is another hoping to derive benefit from a prep in the Greenham, where he was far too free to see his race out.

He will certainly be fitter for that outing behind James Garfield, and is expected to reverse form, but I thought it was a discouraging trial, and the fact he got so lit up having also boiled over in the Dewhurst suggests his issues are getting worse rather than better. He looked unsuited by the combination of fast ground and the undulating track here last autumn, so the prospect of sun-baked turf has to be a big negative, even without the prospect of the trip proving too far. I can’t see him staying on the evidence of his last two runs, and if he is to be reinvented as a champion, it will be dropped to sprinting.

Elarqam has largely kept out of the limelight, but as a son of one outstanding Guineas winner and out of another, this has looked his destiny for some time, and he looked a colt of enormous potential in winning both his starts as a juvenile. He galloped rather than raced at the Craven Meeting, and there were few conclusions to draw from what was achieved other than that he had trained on well enough to be on target for this contest.

He has a little to prove having not faced Group 1 rivals before, but his win in the Tattersalls Stakes over seven furlongs of this course offered plenty of encouragement that he would prove a match for the best of his generation, and that form is undoubtedly better than that shown by Gustav Klimt in winning the Superlative Stakes on the July course, for all such comparisons are not the only consideration.

The son of Frankel has an ideal draw in stall 11 to track the pace-setting Masar, and the turn of foot to master that rival coming out of the dip.

Liquid Amber can strike gold for Willie McCreery in the fillies’ classic

NEWMARKET SUNDAY

3.35 QIPCO 1000 GUINEAS STAKES (GROUP 1) 1M

Happily justifiably heads the market for the fillies’ classic based on the form she showed when winning the Moyglare Stud Stakes and Jean Luc Lagardere last season, and it’s very easy to forgive a flop at Del Mar subsequently.

She is more exposed than most, but that is not untypical of an Aidan O’Brien representative in this contest, and the master trainer has shown the ability to conjure improvement from such fillies time and time again.

She isn’t one I’d be in a hurry to oppose, and while stall four may not be ideal, the fact that her main rival on form, Wild Illusion, is parked very wide in stall one is another positive to her chances.

I like Wild Illusion a lot, and think she is an ideal candidate for the Oaks, but a bad draw on fast ground over a mile may be enough to derail her chance in the Guineas given she is a daughter of Dubawi out of a Monsun mare.

The Marcel Boussac winner clearly appreciates some ease underfoot, and promises to stay a fair bit further than a mile, which makes a fast-ground dash at a mile something of a concern for her supporters.

It’s very possible that the 1000 Guineas will see the runners race more towards the centre of the track, with Charlie Appleby’s Nell Gwyn winner Soliloquy the most obvious pace angle. Godolphin would probably want her to race to her draw in order to help Wild Illusion get some cover, assuming, that is, that Godolphin are thinking tactically about victory, which hasn’t always seemed the case at this meeting.

ADVANTAGE

I take the view that Godolphin runners have had a big advantage in terms of their winter training in Dubai, but that such advantages will quickly be eroded, and Soliloquy will need to improve on her impressive win to maintain her advantage over Altyn Orda from last month.

Anna Nerium, winner against the colts in the Free Handicap at the same meeting, ran as well as either on the clock, and can’t be dismissed out of hand.

I Can Fly has a similar profile to last year’s winner Winter, but this link has not been missed, and while she is better than she showed when beaten in Leopardstown’s 1000 Guineas Trial, I don’t think she’s so much better as to justify her current skinny odds, especially as she was beaten by Altyn Orda here in the Oh So Sharp Stakes in the autumn. She is probably open to more improvement than that rival, but that’s not a given, and she shouldn’t be half the Varian filly’s price.

One who should be shorter on form, however, is the Group 3 Flame Of Tara winner Liquid Amber, who has had just two career outings, culminating in that impressive win over the O’Brien-trained Ballet Shoes. The runner-up has proved a disappointment, but Willie McCreery’s daughter of Kitten’s Joy quicked smartly to put five lengths between herself and the 2/7 favourite, and she is clearly very talented.

She’s also by an influence for fast ground out of a smart performer in Pachattack, who was herself best when hearing her hooves rattle, so the forecast for a warm sunny day will be music to the ears of connections.

It’s hard to imagine she would be a double-figure price if she had the same profile but was trained at Ballydoyle, and yet McCreery is an excellent handler, particularly of fillies, and he’s hit the target with blacktype winners Bloomfield and Mary Tudor already this season.

RECOMMENDED:

SATURDAY

ELARQAM 3.35 Newmarket – 1pt win @ 11/2 (Betfair Sports - 5/1 general)

ROARING LION 3.35 Newmarket – 1pt win @ 16/1 (general)

SUNDAY

LIQUID AMBER 3.35 Newmarket – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365 - 14/1 general)