Donn McClean

BRITISH Champions Day starts with a blast - as Ascot usually does - with the Qipco (aren’t they all?) British Champions Long Distance Cup.

Order Of St George obviously sets a high standard. We know that is a top-class stayer. The performance that he put up in winning the Irish St Leger last season was one of the standout performances of 2015.

He is also one for one at Ascot, he stayed on strongly to win the Gold Cup there in June on soft ground. And, as if that wasn’t enough, he proved that he had pace too when he finished third in the Arc de Triomphe two weeks ago.

It is difficult to pick holes in the chances of Aidan O’Brien’s colt. You can point to his defeat at 1/7 in the Irish St Leger, but you can easily put a line through that because of his subsequent run in the Arc. The fact that Aidan O’Brien was happy to allow him take his chance in the Arc after that defeat tells you that his trainer was happy to forgive him.

The one worry is that the Arc was only 13 days ago, and that he ran such a big race there. He did win the Ascot Gold Cup 13 days after winning the Saval Beg Stakes this season, but the Gold Cup was his target.

It is probable that the Arc was his primary autumn target this year, not the Long Distance Cup. He was beaten in a listed race at Leopardstown in October 2014 as a juvenile 15 days after he had run in the Autumn Stakes at Newmarket.

He is the correct favourite, of course, but it may be that he is further ahead of Forgotten Rules in the betting than he should be, and Dermot Weld’s colt looks over-priced at 7/1.

Forgotten Rules is also a top-class stayer, as he proved when he won this race in 2014 on just his third run ever. Winner of the Vintage Crop Stakes at Navan last year, he finished third behind Trip To Paris in the Gold Cup at Ascot on ground that should really have been too fast for him.

Sent off as favourite for a repeat win in this race last year, he was fairly badly hampered at the top of the home straight just when Pat Smullen had started to ask him to improve.

That effectively ended his chance of winning, and he was short of room from the two-furlong marker as well. You can easily put a line through that run.

He has only run once since then, he ran a nice race to finish a half-length second behind Twilight Payment in a listed race run over two miles at the Curragh last month. He should come on for that, his first run in almost a year.

Dermot Weld has excelled in the short history of British Champions Day, with four winners, including two of the five winners of this race. It is probable that he has had this race in mind for Forgotten Rules since the start of the season. His last run at the Curragh should have brought him forward nicely, and the easy ground should be ideal. He has Pat Smullen for company too. He could run a big race.

SPRINT STAKES

Mecca’s Angel could also run a big race in the Sprint Stakes a half an hour later. Michael Dods’ filly is a top-class sprinter, a multiple Group 1 winner, and she looks over-priced at 9/1. If she can reproduce her best form, she really should go very close to winning this.

There are three worries concerning her ability to reproduce her best form: the track, her last run, and the distance.

First, the track. She was well beaten in the King’s Stand Stakes in June on her only run at Ascot, but she was reportedly in season for that run, so you can easily allow her that. She is not proven at the track, and that is an unknown, but at least we know that we can ignore her only poor run there.

Second, her last run. That last run was in the Prix de l’Abbaye, when she could only finish third behind Marsha and Washington DC, and that was a little disappointing on the face of it.

However, she raced up with the pace that day in a race in which it was an advantage to be held up. All the other horses who raced up with the pace faded out of it. Indeed, Mecca’s Angel was the only horse who finished in the first nine who raced prominently, and she finished a close-up third. She can probably be marked up significantly on the bare form of the race. It was a massive run.

Thirdly, the distance. Now that is an unknown. She hasn’t raced over six furlongs since she finished fourth in the Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy as a juvenile. It is an imponderable, no question.

She is stepping up by 20% from the distance over which she excels. But she finishes out her races really well over five furlongs, she did so at York and at the Curragh this season, and there is every chance that she will be at least as effective over six furlongs as she is over five. At 9/1, you can take that chance.

It is a hot race, even in Limato’s absence. Quiet Reflection is a top-class filly and Shalaa is really exciting. He needs to come on for his win last time on his seasonal debut, but he was an exciting juvenile last year, and there is every chance that he will.

Librisa Breeze is interesting dropping back down to six furlongs, and Signs Of Blessing may not have got due credit for his victory in the Prix Maurice de Gheest last time, but Mecca’s Angel is the bet.

RECOMMENDED

FORGOTTEN RULES, 1 point win, 7/1 (generally)

MECCA’S ANGEL, 1 point win, 9/1 (generally)