Newcastle Saturday

1:15 Betfair Racing Only Bettor Handicap 6f

A low draw is perhaps not ideal, but with Gunmetal to pull him along, there is much to like about the prospects of Glen Shiel in this contest.

Archie Watson’s charge was raced at a mile and beyond when trained in France, but has shown his best form over shorter for his new yard. He coped very well with the drop to this trip when finding just the handicap blot Mubakker too strong over this course and distance on his return to action, and he can be forgiven a slightly flat effort back over seven furlongs in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Ascot last week.

I think he would have been better off in the Wokingham at Ascot, but at least his running on the opening day gives him a bit longer to recover, and I’m convinced that there is more to come from him in a really well run race over this trip.

He’s totally unexposed as a sprinter, and is certainly worth persevering with at this trip. He had to do all the heavy lifting last time, but should be able to get something to aim at here if Gunmetal goes on as he did last time, and that will increase his chances of victory.

1:50 Betfair Backs Racing Welfare Chipchase Stakes (Group 3) 6f

I’m very much putting all my eggs in one basket here given I rate the form of his win here last time very highly, but I cannot be against Mubakker here given how well he beat Glen Shiel here on his return.

The son of Speightstown is bred to be at his best on an artificial surface, and that is shown in his race record, with his only defeats coming on his two turf starts.

He might be worth trying on turf again, of course, but he’s clearly ideally suited by a test like this, will once again get the race run to suit with Major Jumbo and Brad The Brief likely to battle for the lead near the stands rail, and that should allow the selection to produce a late burst as he did when sprinting clear last time.

I believe that form, for all it came in a handicap, is the best on offer here, and that makes Mubakker an automatic selection here.

My view is predicated on taking a high opinion of that reappearance run, and perhaps the best way of maximising value is to include both selections in a double, with the bet in effect a related contingency, but not handled as such.

2:25 Betfair Free Bet Streak Gosforth Park Cup Handicap 5f

Guessing how well run a race is going to be can be much less of an exact science than it promises to be at times, but if Caspian Prince and Ornate are not blazing a trail together after a couple of furlongs, then I’ll have to give up predicting pace scenarios altogether.

That pair are two of the fastest horses in the country, and inveterate front-runners, so any other scenario is madness to even consider.

The default reaction from punters when they see a race with such a guaranteed pace is to assume that extreme hold-up horses will benefit, but that rarely happens, especially as such horses can get out of position early on.

Instead, it’s best to concentrate on those who will benefit from being towed along by a fast pace, and in that regard Copper Knight looks the one be with. He won this race two years ago off a 2lb lower mark, and was an excellent second last year when conceding lumps of weight to the pair that he split.

He races off the same mark and ran well on his return this season despite the yard being pretty quiet on the whole. He was a bit disappointing at Doncaster last time, but his record at that track is 404, and this venue clearly suits him better.

3:35 Betfair Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) 2m 56y

This looks a very open affair, and it’s likely to go to an up-and-coming stayer, but horses with that profile tend to be priced accordingly. I prefer to side with a proven course and distance performer who has become very well-handicapped, and still appears to retain all his old ability. That horse is 2018 Northumberland Vase winner Cosmelli.

As well as that win, which came off a 6lb higher mark, Gay Kelleway’s old warrior was beaten by just two lengths when fifth in this contest 12 months ago off an even higher mark.

He has another handful of runs at this venue which read equally well in form terms, and the only time in eight attempts over track and trip that he has let his form slip was when just a respectable fifth here in February.

That might have been taken as a sign that he’s not the force of old, except that he has bounced back with three solid runs to hit the frame since, including when fourth to a couple of unexposed four-year-olds over half a mile shorter here early this month. That form puts him bang in the picture up in trip, and he was again doing his best work late when third to Collide and Land Of Oz at Chelmsford last time.

It’s easy to argue that he’s too exposed to win this, but the formbook paints a very different picture, and having eased in the weights since last summer, he is entitled to go very close indeed – a literal reading of last year’s race suggests he’d have run out a ready winner off his current mark, and it’s hard to see him out of the frame granted an incident-free contest.

Recommended

Glen Shiel 1:15 Newcastle – 1pt win @ 5/1 (Hills)

Mubakker 1:50 Newcastle – 2pts win @ 11/4 (Bet365, BetVictor)

Copper Knight 2:25 Newcastle – 1pt win @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes, BetVictor, Coral)

Cosmelli 3:35 Newcastle – 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (general)