THE Group 1 Lockinge Stakes run at Newbury two weeks ago could hold the key to the Group 3 Timeform Jury Stakes at Haydock this afternoon.

Aljamaaheer could only finish eighth in the Lockinge, but he ran a lot better than that suggests, given that he was held up out the back in a race that was dominated by the prominent racers. He finished well, he saw out the mile well, to be closest at the finish, but he still should be happier back over seven furlongs today. Remember that he finished third in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes last year over six furlongs. That said, he may not want the ground to be too soft.

By contrast, Breton Rock does want to get his toe in, and he will appreciate every drop of rain that has fallen in the Greater Manchester area in the last 48 hours.

David Simcock’s horse did not run badly in the Lockinge, but if you are backing him you are backing him because of the easier ground. The easier the better, basically. He will be better over seven furlongs that he was over a mile, and he has put up two of the best performances of his life over today’s course and distance. But he is short.

You can back Cable Bay at around the same price as Breton Rock, but the case for him is more compelling. Charlie Hills’ horse ran a cracker in the Lockinge. Held up out the back of the field, he had to switch a furlong out, and he ran all the way to the line. He was sent off a 66/1 shot for that race, he wasn’t wanted at all, but he out-performed those odds by a long way.

Cable Bay was a high-class juvenile, he finished second to War Command in the Dewhurst, but he lost his way a little last year as a three-year-old, before rounding off the season with an encouraging run to finish second behind Here Comes When in the Group 2 Challenge Stakes over seven furlongs at Newmarket in October.

He started off this season really encouragingly as well when he finished third behind Flight Risk and Piri Wango in the Group 3 Gladness Stakes at the Curragh in April after being shuffled back through the pack at a crucial stage of the race. His run in the Lockinge was his second run of the season, and it was probably the best run of his life.

The Invincible Spirit colt appears to be a seven-furlong specialist. Dropped back down in trip, Jamie Spencer doesn’t have to ride him as defensively as he did in the Lockinge over a mile. Also, he is at his best on soft ground.

Seven furlongs and easy ground probably represent optimum conditions for him, and he has that today.

Put that with the fact that Charlie Hills’ horses have struck form in the last two weeks after a quiet six weeks, and Cable Bay has a big chance.

IRISH CHALLENGE

The Sabrina Harty-trained Ansgar could run a big race if Leigh Roche is allowed an easy lead on him, but Cable Bay is the most likely winner of the race, and he looks over-priced at 9/2 or 4/1.

Red Baron also looks over-priced at 8/1 for the Titanbet Spring Sprint at York. Eric Alston’s horse ran a cracker over today’s course and distance at the Dante meeting to finish a neck second to Out Do.

Fast away that day, he showed remarkably good pace to lead habitual front-runners like Demora and Tangerine Trees, and he kept on best of all by far of those who raced in the front rank.

Out Do caught him, but he rallied again close home, going down by just a neck in the end and finishing a full length in front of the third horse Desert Law.

The Moss Vale gelding is progressive. He had won his previous two races at Wolverhampton, but he proved at York that he could translate his all-weather progress to turf.

He was turned out quickly again at Thirsk two weeks ago and, sent off the 3/1 favourite, he won nicely, clocking a fast time, 0.2secs/furlong faster than standard, the fastest time of the day by some way.

He gets to race off a mark of 93 today, just 4lb higher than the 89 off which he raced both at the Dante meeting and when he won at Thirsk last time. That could still under-estimate his ability.

His draw in stall three is good, it should allow Neil Farley - who gets on really well with him and who is well worth his 3lb claim on him - bounce him out and relax into a nice rhythm in the centre of the track close to or on the pace. If he does, he could go very close.

RECOMMENDED

CABLE BAY, 4/1 (generally) 1 point win,

RED BARON, 8/1 (generally) 1 point each-way.