Donn McClean

RAIN is important. It is more important, obviously, than merely as a determinant of ground conditions at racecourses, but it is also important as that. And the amount they had at Cheltenham overnight, plus the amount that they have this morning before racing, is going to be influential in determining ground conditions for, and therefore the outcome of, today’s Caspian Caviar Gold Cup.

(We should be getting used to the Caspian Caviar thing by now, by the way. This is their third year, and they deserve the name recognition that should go with such relative longevity. They can’t all be Hennessy. Then again, Hennessy can’t be Hennessy these days either. It’s 36 years since the Massey Ferguson ploughed its final furrow, so surely it can’t be the Massey Ferguson anymore.)

There are several well-fancied horses who like to get their toe in. Aso likes to get his toe in, Buywise is probably better on soft ground than he is on good ground, Kylemore Lough and Aloomomo like to get their toe in.

Warren Greatrex said on Wednesday that Aloomomo probably wouldn’t take his chance in the race if the rains didn’t come, but he obviously declared on Thursday morning in anticipation of same.

Kylemore Lough had the option of waiting for the John Durkan Chase at Punchestown tomorrow, in which he held an entry, but the weather forecast obviously convinced Kerry Lee that she should declare for today’s race instead.

The times at Cheltenham yesterday suggest that the ground was probably just on the easy side of good, so the soft ground horses are going to need the rain.

Bouvreuil doesn’t need rain, indeed he would probably be happier without the rain now than with it.

That said, while he does go well on goodish ground, he wouldn’t mind a little bit of rain either. He won on heavy ground in his native France, and he beat Vyta Du Roc in a novices’ chase at Doncaster last January on soft ground.

Paul Nicholls’ horse could only finish fifth in the BetVictor Gold Cup on the Old Course at Cheltenham last month on his first run for J.P. McManus, he has to reverse placings with Village Vic and Buywise and Aso from that race, but there are reasons for believing that he can.

First of all, he is better off with two of the three horses who finished in front of him at the weights today, he is 3lb better off with Village Vic and 1lb better off with Buywise. Also, the ground will probably not be as soft as it was at the November meeting, as long as it doesn’t bucket down.

Bouvreuil travelled well for a long way in the November race. He was wide throughout, which was not ideal, but it seemed to be a deliberate tactic, presumably in search of better ground. Right there with a chance in the leading group as they rounded the home turn, he just wasn’t as strong as his rivals over the final two fences and up the hill on the ground. Better ground should allow him get closer.

He has more in his favour. Interestingly, the Close Brothers Chase in which he finished second last March is a really good pointer to this race, more than it is the November race. And Barry Geraghty rides him today for the first time, and that is an obvious positive.

The handicapper left him on his mark of 146 after his run in November, and that is a mark off which there could still be a big handicap chase in him. He is only five and he has raced just six times over fences, so he has plenty of scope for progression. We know that he goes well at Cheltenham.

Aso was a little unlucky in the November race, he travelled like the most likely winner into the home straight, but mistakes at each of the last two fences effectively scuppered his charge.

He will come into it again if the rains arrive, as will Kylemore Lough, winner of the Grade 1 Ryanair Gold Cup at Fairyhouse last March and only just beaten by Royal Regatta in the Stella Artois Chase at Ascot on his debut this term. But this could be Bouvreuil’s day.

MARES HURDLE

Jessber’s Dream could be the answer to the finale at Cheltenham today, a really interesting mares’ handicap hurdle. The Milan mare was a nicely progressive novice hurdler last season for Harry Fry and Potensis Bloodstock. Most of her form was on soft and heavy ground, but put up a good performance to finish second to Jer’s Girl in the Grade 1 mares’ novices’ hurdle at Fairyhouse last March.

She was no match for the winner that day, but she battled on well to retain the runner-up spot, just holding on from the talented Asthuria for that position.

She was well beaten on her debut this season, her first run for Paul Nicholls, at Kempton last month, when she finished behind Rons Dream and Run Ructions Run. She was weak in the market before that race, and she travelled into it well before she weakened on the run to the second last flight.

She should improve for that run. Also, that was over three miles, she should be happier back down at two and a half today, and she could go close.

RECOMMENDED

BOUVREUIL, 6/1 (generally) 1 point each-way

JESSBER’S DREAM, 8/1 (generally) 1 point win