Donn McClean

IT is never easy, trying to figure out the Guineas. Try to put a value on last year’s juvenile form, try to put a value on this year’s three-year-old form, divide one by the other, add 10 and multiply by pi.

How good were last year’s juveniles? How good were the best of them, and how much of their superiority was down to precocity? How good were the Classic trials this season so far? How good were the winners? And how do the trial winners compare with each other?

Churchill is favourite, we know that, and Churchill should be favourite, we know that too. He was the outstanding juvenile colt last season, winner of the Chesham Stakes, winner of the Tyros Stakes, winner of the Futurity Stakes, winner of the National Stakes, winner of the Dewhurst Stakes.

We haven’t seen him yet this season, but that is not an issue, Aidan O’Brien doesn’t tend to run his 2000 Guineas winners before they go ahead and win the Guineas. And the vibes have been good. The problem is that it’s difficult to put a value on vibes, and the Galileo colt has to take on three strong Guineas trial winners.

Al Wukair was all the rage when he won the Prix Djebel, the quintessential French English 2000 Guineas trial, insofar as there is a French English 2000 Guineas trial.

Andre Fabre’s colt showed a fine turn of foot to catch and pass last year’s Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere winner National Defense. But he is short now, he is fashionable, backed by the Fabre-doesn’t-send-a-horse-to-Newmarket-for-the-fresh-air notion.

Eminent was also impressive in winning the Craven Stakes, run over today’s course and distance. However, the Craven is not as good a pointer to the Guineas as it should be, and Eminent may ultimately be better over further than a mile in time, as his breeding and his trainer have suggested.

The Greenham is a better Guineas trial than the Craven these days, and Barney Roy was also mightily impressive in winning the Greenham. He had to be niggled along from a fair way out by James Doyle, and it looked like fellow Godolphin colt Dream Castle had flown when he went for home, but Richard Hannon’s horse picked up really well inside the final furlong, and he stayed on strongly all the way to the line to win by a cosy two lengths.

That was his seasonal debut, and it was just his second ever run - he won his maiden at Haydock last September – so he should progress from the run. He should improve for the step up to a mile. The time that he clocked in the Greenham was good, and he may not have to progress that much in order to win the Guineas this afternoon.

Lancaster Bomber is interesting at a big price, but Barney Roy could represent the best value in the race at 4/1.

1000 GUINEAS

Winter could also be value for the 1000 Guineas tomorrow at 8/1. It took the Galileo filly three attempts to win her maiden last year when she was with David Wachman, but she was impressive in winning that maiden, from a wide draw at Dundalk in August, and that race has worked out well since.

It was her seasonal debut this season at Leopardstown. However, that suggested that she could be a Guineas filly. Drawn wide again, she was keener than ideal through the early stages of the race. She was wide around the home turn, but she finished off her race well to get to within a head of her better-fancied stable companion Hydrangea, who had enjoyed an inside run through the race.

The Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial is often a good pointer, it has been won in the recent past by Newmarket Guineas winners Homecoming Queen and Virginia Waters, and Legatissimo finished fourth in the Leopardstown race in 2015 before going to Newmarket (via Gowran Park) to win the Guineas.

This year’s renewal of the Leopardstown race looked as strong as ever, with four of the first five home in last year’s Group 1 Moyglare Stud Stakes lining up. Winter was the only filly who didn’t run in the Moyglare to get in among them, and she almost won it.

Fillies from the Moyglare finished first, third and fourth (they had finished, respectively, second, fourth and first in the Moyglare) at Leopardstown, and third-placed Rehana added further ballast to the form by landing the Group 3 Athasi Stakes at Naas on Monday, beating the older fillies in the process.

Rhododendron sets a good standard on her Fillies’ Mile win, but she is not invincible, her form ties in with the other Irish fillies through Hydrangea, second in the Fillies’ Mile, and through Rhododendron’s own third-place finish in the Moyglare.

Winter will have to step up on her Leopardstown run if she is to win tomorrow’s 1000 Guineas, but there is every chance that she will. She is out of Wokingham winner Laddies Poker Two, but the fact that she is by Galileo gives her every chance of getting at least a mile. Certainly, she finished off her race last time at Leopardstown over seven furlongs so well that it wouldn’t be surprising if she improved for a step up in trip.

It is not surprising that Ryan Moore has chosen to ride favourite Rhododendron, but Wayne Lordan is a good booking for Winter, he knows her well, having ridden her in all four of her races to date. She is nicely drawn in the middle in stall seven, and she could out-run odds of 8/1 by a fair way.

RECOMMENDED:

BARNEY ROY, 4/1 (generally) 1 point win

WINTER, 8/1 (generally) 1 point win