YOU couldn’t put anyone off favourite The Conditional in this afternoon’s McCoy Contractors Civil Engineering Classic Chase at Warwick. He entered many notebooks when he won a decent handicap chase at Cheltenham’s October meeting, and he entered many more when he ran a big race to finish second to De Rasher Counter in the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury at the end of November.

He has just turned eight, and that was just his ninth chase, and just his third run for David Bridgwater. That said, he is up another 5lbs for his Ladbrokes Trophy run, he is 11lbs higher than he was when he won at Cheltenham in October and, more importantly, he is fashionable now. He is short enough for today’s contest.

Kimberlite Candy is also short enough today after he stayed on well to take second place behind Walk In The Mill in the Becher Chase last time, in his first-time cheekpieces, which are retained today. He is another just-turned-eight-year-old, he was making his seasonal debut that day, and a 3lb hike is not harsh. However, he is not as lightly-raced over fences as his main market rival, he is another who hasn’t been missed by the market, and it is not a given that he will progress from his seasonal debut. He goes well fresh. His record after a break of 50 days or more reads 11511P2.

By contrast, it looks like Le Breuil has been under-rated a little by the market. He has almost 20 lengths to find on Kimberlite Candy on their running in the Becher Chase, but that does not tell the full story of the race. Le Breuil travelled really well through his race, he was still on the bridle on the run to the home turn. He just tired up the home straight and over the last two fences, but he ran way better than the bare form of the race suggests.

Trainer Ben Pauling’s horses were well out of form earlier in the season and, sure enough, Le Breuil was pulled up on his seasonal debut in the West Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby. So he was entitled to get tired at Aintree on his first run since then.

We know that it isn’t a stamina issue. He stayed on best of all to win a gruelling National Hunt Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last March.

The handicapper dropped him by 2lbs for that Becher Chase run, which was generous. It means that, without taking the rider’s claim into account, he meets Kimberlite Candy on 5lb better terms, and he is almost twice his price.

He is another eight-year-old, and he has raced just seven times over fences, so he has plenty of potential for progression as a staying chaser. And he is one for one at Warwick. He won his bumper there on his racecourse debut.

There is a slight concern that the Grand National is his primary aim, that he may not be at his peak today, because he doesn’t need to go up any more in the handicap in order to get into the Grand National. But that worry is factored into his odds, and it is encouraging in that regard that One For Arthur won this race in 2017 before going on to win the Grand National less than three months later.

Lanzarote Hurdle

Over at Kempton, Echiquier could out-run his odds in the Unibet Lanzarote Hurdle. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ horse wasn’t beaten far into fifth place in the Grade 2 Persian War Hurdle at Chepstow in October, a race that subsequent Grade 2 and Grade 1 winner Thyme Hill won, and in which last weekend’s Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle winner Fiddlerontheroof finished second.

That is really strong novice form to take into a handicap hurdle, especially one in which the young progressive hurdlers have excelled in recent years.

Winner of a chase in France, Echiquier didn’t run badly next time in the very strong three-mile handicap hurdle at Haydock that Stoney Mountain won, a race in which they went hard from early, and in which Echiquier just faded on the run-in after getting close to the pace-setters.

You have to forgive him an abject performance last time at Southwell, but that just wasn’t his running, and the handicapper dropped him 2lbs for it. You can allow him that at the price, this trip should suit him well, and he has the potential to be a fair bit better than a 130-rated hurdler.

Recommended:

Le Breuil, 1 point win, 3.00 Warwick, 8/1 (generally)

Echiquier,1 point win, 2.40 Kempton, 14/1 (generally)